July 2018 - cypherpunks-legacy

paper on technology bubbles
by Andrew M. Odlyzko 06 Jul '18

06 Jul '18

I had a note in my files that you expressed an interest in the project comparing the Internet bubble to the British Railway Mania of the 1840s. So here is the announcement of my third work on this topic. Any comments you might have would be greatly appreciated. If I had you on the list by mistake, please accept my apologies. If you will let me know, I will remove your email address right away from the list. Best regards, Andrew http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania02.pdf The collapse of the Railway Mania, the development of capital markets, and Robert Lucas Nash, a forgotten pioneer of accounting and financial analysis Andrew Odlyzko School of Mathematics and Digital Technology Center University of Minnesota odlyzko(a)umn.edu http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko Preliminary version, June 15, 2010 ABSTRACT The revolution in accounting, associated with the collapse of the great Railway Mania in Britain at the end of the 1840s, is well known in broad outline. This paper contributes a description of the events that led to this revolution, and of the key role played by Robert Lucas Nash in those events. He was a pioneer in accounting and financial analysis, providing studies on the financial performance of railways that were more penetrating and systematic than those available to the public from any one else. His contemporaries credited him with precipitating a market crash that led to one of two dramatic changes in accounting practices that occurred in the late 1840s. Yet his contributions have been totally forgotten. The collapse of the Railway Mania provides interesting perspectives on the development of capital markets. The accounting revolution was just one of the byproducts of the collision of investors' rosy profit expectations with cold reality. Shareholders' struggles to understand, or, more precisely, to avoid understanding, the inevitability of ruin, have many similarities to the events of recent financial crashes. The Railway Mania events thus provide cautionary notes on what even penetrating accounting and financial analysis reports can accomplish. Railway share price behavior suggests that Nash's contributions had a much smaller effect than his contemporaries gave him credit for. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- The previous two papers in this series are available at: 1. Collective hallucinations and inefficient markets: The British Railway Mania of the 1840s http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/hallucinations.pdf 2. This time is different: An example of a giant, wildly speculative, and successful investment mania http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania01.pdf ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Press coverage of this project includes: 1. Lee Gomes, All aboard The Bubble Express, Forbes, March 15, 2010. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0315/technology-bubbles-fiber-optics-so cial-networking.html 2. Matthew Lasar, Historian finds tech bubble that didn't pop (180 years ago), Ars Technica, March 22, 2010. http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2010/03/historian-finds-tech-bubbl e-that-didnt-pop-180-years-ago.ars 3. Manas Chakravarty, The 1830s railway mania: sole instance of a successful 'boom', Live Mint, March 26, 2010. http://www.livemint.com/2010/03/26204636/The-1830s-railway-mania-sole.html 4. Edward Chancellor, Bubbles: a Victorian lesson in mania, Financial Times, April 12, 2010. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b3573436-440b-11df-9235-00144feab49a.html 5. Paul Kedrosky, Edward Chancellor on Bubbles, Railroads, and Andrew Odlyzko, "Infectious Greed" blog, April 11, 2010. http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/04/edward_chancell_1.html

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paper on technology bubbles
by Andrew M. Odlyzko 06 Jul '18

06 Jul '18

I had a note in my files that you expressed an interest in the project comparing the Internet bubble to the British Railway Mania of the 1840s. So here is the announcement of my third work on this topic. Any comments you might have would be greatly appreciated. If I had you on the list by mistake, please accept my apologies. If you will let me know, I will remove your email address right away from the list. Best regards, Andrew http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania02.pdf The collapse of the Railway Mania, the development of capital markets, and Robert Lucas Nash, a forgotten pioneer of accounting and financial analysis Andrew Odlyzko School of Mathematics and Digital Technology Center University of Minnesota odlyzko(a)umn.edu http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko Preliminary version, June 15, 2010 ABSTRACT The revolution in accounting, associated with the collapse of the great Railway Mania in Britain at the end of the 1840s, is well known in broad outline. This paper contributes a description of the events that led to this revolution, and of the key role played by Robert Lucas Nash in those events. He was a pioneer in accounting and financial analysis, providing studies on the financial performance of railways that were more penetrating and systematic than those available to the public from any one else. His contemporaries credited him with precipitating a market crash that led to one of two dramatic changes in accounting practices that occurred in the late 1840s. Yet his contributions have been totally forgotten. The collapse of the Railway Mania provides interesting perspectives on the development of capital markets. The accounting revolution was just one of the byproducts of the collision of investors' rosy profit expectations with cold reality. Shareholders' struggles to understand, or, more precisely, to avoid understanding, the inevitability of ruin, have many similarities to the events of recent financial crashes. The Railway Mania events thus provide cautionary notes on what even penetrating accounting and financial analysis reports can accomplish. Railway share price behavior suggests that Nash's contributions had a much smaller effect than his contemporaries gave him credit for. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- The previous two papers in this series are available at: 1. Collective hallucinations and inefficient markets: The British Railway Mania of the 1840s http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/hallucinations.pdf 2. This time is different: An example of a giant, wildly speculative, and successful investment mania http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania01.pdf ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Press coverage of this project includes: 1. Lee Gomes, All aboard The Bubble Express, Forbes, March 15, 2010. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0315/technology-bubbles-fiber-optics-so cial-networking.html 2. Matthew Lasar, Historian finds tech bubble that didn't pop (180 years ago), Ars Technica, March 22, 2010. http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2010/03/historian-finds-tech-bubbl e-that-didnt-pop-180-years-ago.ars 3. Manas Chakravarty, The 1830s railway mania: sole instance of a successful 'boom', Live Mint, March 26, 2010. http://www.livemint.com/2010/03/26204636/The-1830s-railway-mania-sole.html 4. Edward Chancellor, Bubbles: a Victorian lesson in mania, Financial Times, April 12, 2010. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b3573436-440b-11df-9235-00144feab49a.html 5. Paul Kedrosky, Edward Chancellor on Bubbles, Railroads, and Andrew Odlyzko, "Infectious Greed" blog, April 11, 2010. http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/04/edward_chancell_1.html

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Bell trial schedule
by Gordon Jeff TIGTA 06 Jul '18

06 Jul '18

: : John You will need to be present at the Tacoma Courthouse at 9:00am on Tuesday, 4/3/01. We anticipate you will testify on Tuesday, but it may extend to Wednesday 4/4/01, depending on the pace of the trial, so the return flight should not be scheduled prior to 5pm on 4/4/01. In order to be reimbursed for travel, all travel arrangements need to be made through the Dru Mercer at the US Attorney's office, (206) 553-7970. Let me know if you have any questions. Jeff -----

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Bell trial schedule
by John Young 06 Jul '18

06 Jul '18

: : Jeff, Thanks for the information. Could you find out if I can buy a transcript of my grand jury testimony before the trial? Robb London has not answered my three inquiries. The court reporters office told me it can be released only with Robb's approval. John

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Post this on your web site
by The Roughneck 06 Jul '18

06 Jul '18

I realize that you were just trying to help me by posting my earlier emails but I think it may have caused more harm than good; at least for the short term. So if you will be so kind as to post this email for me then maybe I can make a little lemonaide from the previous lemons. The way I see it is if the "powers that be" at my job have already read my email postings from earlier then they'll probably go back to your site to see if you've posted any more emails. Please respect my wishes, here. I just want to avoid any harm against my family and me. And please dont show my email address again, too. If I'm lucky and they still dont know who I am then that would be a good thing. <lapses into paranoid, threatening, mafiated, jewdeity-filled rant> http://cryptome.org/il-spies-tx.htm -------- I think people have not quite gotten their hands around the speed at which information can be disseminated online. -Monica Lewinsky, LATimes 9 may 01

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Bluesniper Creator Interviewed on Gizmodo
by brian-slashdotnews＠hyperreal.org 06 Jul '18

06 Jul '18

Link: http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/08/06/2242224 Posted by: michael, on 2004-08-07 12:19:00 from the long-shot dept. [1]carbolic writes "[2]Gizmodo interviews John Hering, one of the Bluedriving crew (of which I was one: [3]picture) and creator of the [4]Bluesniper rifle. Get the backstory on the recent 1.08 mile cellphone [5]Bluesnarf attack and find out his motivation for building the rifle and trying a snarf to a cellphone you can't even see." [6]Click Here References 1. http://www.wifi-toys.com/ 2. http://www.gizmodo.com/archives/imterview-with-bluetooth-hacking-flexiliss-… hn-hering-019057.php 3. http://www.gizmodo.com/archives/images/team_flexilis.jpg 4. http://www.engadget.com/entry/3093445122266423/ 5. file://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/08/06/149207&tid=172 6. http://ads.osdn.com/?ad_id=4826&alloc_id=10297&site_id=1&request_id=8513374… p=click&page=%2farticle%2epl ----- End forwarded message ----- -- Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07078, 11.61144 http://www.leitl.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE http://moleculardevices.org http://nanomachines.net [demime 1.01d removed an attachment of type application/pgp-signature]

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Re: [Freedombox-discuss] ZRTP is free software, and is used
by Jay Sulzberger 06 Jul '18

06 Jul '18

On Mon, 14 Mar 2011, Jay Sulzberger wrote: > > http://www.panix.com/~jays/David.Sugar.2011-3-14.announce.odt > > oo--JS. Here is the official announcement: http://www.gnutelephony.org/index.php/GNU_Free_Call_Announcement oo--JS. _______________________________________________ Freedombox-discuss mailing list Freedombox-discuss(a)lists.alioth.debian.org http://lists.alioth.debian.org/mailman/listinfo/freedombox-discuss ----- End forwarded message ----- -- Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE

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Re: [Freedombox-discuss] ZRTP is free software, and is used
by Jay Sulzberger 06 Jul '18

06 Jul '18

On Mon, 14 Mar 2011, Jay Sulzberger wrote: > > http://www.panix.com/~jays/David.Sugar.2011-3-14.announce.odt > > oo--JS. Here is the official announcement: http://www.gnutelephony.org/index.php/GNU_Free_Call_Announcement oo--JS. _______________________________________________ Freedombox-discuss mailing list Freedombox-discuss(a)lists.alioth.debian.org http://lists.alioth.debian.org/mailman/listinfo/freedombox-discuss ----- End forwarded message ----- -- Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE

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Post this on your web site
by The Roughneck 06 Jul '18

06 Jul '18

I realize that you were just trying to help me by posting my earlier emails but I think it may have caused more harm than good; at least for the short term. So if you will be so kind as to post this email for me then maybe I can make a little lemonaide from the previous lemons. The way I see it is if the "powers that be" at my job have already read my email postings from earlier then they'll probably go back to your site to see if you've posted any more emails. Please respect my wishes, here. I just want to avoid any harm against my family and me. And please dont show my email address again, too. If I'm lucky and they still dont know who I am then that would be a good thing. <lapses into paranoid, threatening, mafiated, jewdeity-filled rant> http://cryptome.org/il-spies-tx.htm -------- I think people have not quite gotten their hands around the speed at which information can be disseminated online. -Monica Lewinsky, LATimes 9 may 01

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Bluesniper Creator Interviewed on Gizmodo
by brian-slashdotnews＠hyperreal.org 06 Jul '18

06 Jul '18

Link: http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/08/06/2242224 Posted by: michael, on 2004-08-07 12:19:00 from the long-shot dept. [1]carbolic writes "[2]Gizmodo interviews John Hering, one of the Bluedriving crew (of which I was one: [3]picture) and creator of the [4]Bluesniper rifle. Get the backstory on the recent 1.08 mile cellphone [5]Bluesnarf attack and find out his motivation for building the rifle and trying a snarf to a cellphone you can't even see." [6]Click Here References 1. http://www.wifi-toys.com/ 2. http://www.gizmodo.com/archives/imterview-with-bluetooth-hacking-flexiliss-… hn-hering-019057.php 3. http://www.gizmodo.com/archives/images/team_flexilis.jpg 4. http://www.engadget.com/entry/3093445122266423/ 5. file://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/08/06/149207&tid=172 6. http://ads.osdn.com/?ad_id=4826&alloc_id=10297&site_id=1&request_id=8513374… p=click&page=%2farticle%2epl ----- End forwarded message ----- -- Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07078, 11.61144 http://www.leitl.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE http://moleculardevices.org http://nanomachines.net [demime 1.01d removed an attachment of type application/pgp-signature]

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