July 2003 - cypherpunks-legacy

Pentagon discovers Assasination Politics, deadpools
by Major Variola (ret.) 30 Jul '03

30 Jul '03

Pentagon Abandons Terrorism Betting Plan 1 hour, 20 minutes ago Add White House - AP Cabinet & State to My Yahoo! By KEN GUGGENHEIM, Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON - The Pentagon (news - web sites) will abandon a plan to establish a futures market to help predict terrorist strikes, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee (news - web sites) said Tuesday. Sen. John Warner (news, bio, voting record), R-Va., said he spoke by phone with the program's director, "and we mutually agreed that this thing should be stopped." Warner announced the decision not long after Senate Democratic Leader Thomas Daschle took to the floor to denounce the program as "an incentive actually to commit acts of terrorism." Warner made the announcement during a confirmation hearing for retired Gen. Peter J. Schoomaker, nominated to be Army chief of staff. "This is just wrong," declared Daschle, D-S.D. Warner said he consulted with Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts, R-Kansas, and Appropriations Committee chairman Sen. Ted Stevens (news, bio, voting record), R-Alaska, and they agreed "that this should be immediately disestablished." He said they would recommend that the Pentagon not spend any funds already in place for the program and said they would pull the plug on it during House-Senate budget conference committee negotiations later on this year. The little-publicized Pentagon plan envisioned a potential futures trading market in which speculators would wager on the Internet on the likelihood of a future terrorist attack or assassination attempt on a particular leader. A Web site promoting the plan already is available. When the plan was disclosed by two Democratic senators Monday, the Pentagon defended it as a way to gain intelligence about potential terrorists' plans. Earlier, Warner had said that his staff was looking into the program and would report on it later Tuesday. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (news - web sites), D-N.Y., said she was appalled to hear of plans to set up "a futures market in death." Other Democrats expressed similar alarm. "The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," said Sen. Ron Wyden (news, bio, voting record), D-Ore., one of two lawmakers who disclosed the plan Monday. The program is called the Policy Analysis Market. The Pentagon office overseeing it, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, said it was part of a research effort "to investigate the broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Traders would buy and sell futures contracts just like energy traders do now in betting on the future price of oil. But the contracts in this case would be based on what might happen in the Middle East in terms of economics, civil and military affairs or specific events, such as terrorist attacks. Holders of a futures contract that came true would collect the proceeds of traders who put money into the market but predicted wrong. A graphic on the market's Web page Monday showed hypothetical futures contracts in which investors could trade on the likelihood that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat (news - web sites) would be assassinated or Jordanian King Abdullah II would be overthrown. Although the Web site described the Policy Analysis Market as Middle East market, the graphic also included the possibility of a North Korea (news - web sites) missile attack. That graphic apparently was removed from the Web site hours after the news conference in which Wyden and fellow Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan (news, bio, voting record) of North Dakota criticized the market. Dorgan described the market as "unbelievably stupid." "Can you imagine if another country set up a betting parlor so that people could go in ... and bet on the assassination of an American political figure or the overthrow of this institution or that institution?" he said. But in its statement Monday, DARPA said markets could reveal "dispersed and even hidden information. Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions." According to its Web site, the Policy Analysis Market would be a joint program of DARPA and two private companies, Net Exchange, a market technologies company, and the Economist Intelligence Unit, the business information arm of the publisher of The Economist magazine. DARPA has been criticized by Congress for its Terrorism Information Awareness program, a computerized surveillance program that has raised privacy concerns. Wyden said the Policy Analysis Market is under the supervision of retired Adm. John Poindexter, the head of the Terrorism Information Awareness program and, in the 1980s, national security adviser to President Reagan. The Web site does not address how much money investors would be likely to put into the market but says analysts would be motivated by the "prospect of profit and at pain of loss" to make accurate predictions. Trading is to begin Oct. 1. The market would initially be limited to 1,000 traders, increasing to at least 10,000 by Jan. 1. The Web site says government agencies will not be allowed to participate and will not have access to the identities or funds of traders. The market is a project of a DARPA division called FutureMAP, or "Futures Markets Applied to Prediction." "The rapid reaction of markets to knowledge held by only a few participants may provide an early warning system to avoid surprise," the FutureMap Web site said. Dorgan and Wyden released a letter to Poindexter calling for an end to the program. They noted a May 20 report to lawmakers that cited the possibility of using market forces to predict whether Israel will be attacked with biological weapons. "Surely such a threat should be met with intelligence gathering of the highest quality not by putting the question to individuals betting on an Internet Web site," they said. Wyden said $600,000 has been spent on the program so far and the Pentagon plans to spend an additional $149,000 this year. The Pentagon has requested $3 million for the program for next year and $5 million for the following year. Wyden said the Senate version of next year's defense spending bill would cut off money for the program, but the House version would fund it. The two versions will have to be reconciled. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030729/ap_on_go_ca_st_p…

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DARPA to extend Futures Markets to Courts
by Tim May 30 Jul '03

30 Jul '03

WASHINGTON, 30 July The Pentagon has announced plans to offer the FutureMAP technology to courtrooms and their employees. "Court officers, judges, clerks, persecutors, and even bailiffs will be able to participate in the exciting technology of futures markets," gushed Rear Admiral and Arms Dealer John Poindexter. "Before a decision is reached, before even the jury has gone to the jury box, people will be able to make side bets on various outcomes, with odds set by the collective action of all. The betting and payoffs are done anonymously, so there are no pesky income tax issues to worry about," added Poindexter. Poindexter said that the information revealed by the futures market for legal decisions will also help guide judges to make the correct decisions. "I envision this as the ultimate computer technology for the legal profession." Said one judge in the Ninth Circuit, "As judges we are very poorly paid. How can we live on $160,000 a year? This system will allow us to earn a little bit of money on the side. My clerks are very excited, too. One of my rocket scientists has some ideas about how we can juice up the odds on a long shot decision, with some preliminary rulings, and then swoop in for the kill with the bets we have placed on the actual decision! Cayman Islands, here I come!" Rear Admiral Poindexter denounced critics of the system as Chicken Littles. "We have checks and balances in place. Don't forget, our office also operates the Total Information Awareness Program, so those microphones and DARPA-developed miniature cameras will really come in handy to check that nobody is abusing the system."

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AP by any other name ...
by Anonymous 29 Jul '03

29 Jul '03

Of the 266 Google news links about Policy Analysis Market this morning, most of the headlines trumpet "Defense Department Taking Terror Bets." Policy Analysis Market is an attempt to use the wisdom of markets to predict crises and attacks in the Middle East. The organizations behind the project include the Economist Intelligence unit, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (they funded the original Internet), and Net Exchange, a spinoff from the California Institute of Technology devoted to commercialize " computational combinatorial deal-making (CCDM)." PAM states this about the whole concept: "Analysts often use prices from various markets as indicators of potential events. The use of petroleum futures contract prices by analysts of the Middle East is a classic example. The Policy Analysis Market (PAM) refines this approach by trading futures contracts that deal with underlying fundamentals of relevance to the Middle East. Initially, PAM will focus on the economic, civil, and military futures of Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey and the impact of U.S. involvement with each." What is controversial is that market futures about "the overthrow of King Hussein of Jordan" were included and have offended politicians here in the US and undoubtedly in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, etc. . Others are upset that a trader can actually make some money if he/she predicts fairly accurately. Trading starts October 1, 2003, and you can signup now. There will be a cutoff after 1000 registrants, and while they hope to have a globally distributed network of participants, what if a significant number were nettime readers? I first ran into this market concept about ten years ago. The Iowa Political Stock Market successfully predicted the outcome of the 1992 U.S. presidential election within a few tenths of a percentage point for all three candidates (including Perot). It was more accurate than 8 major polls. Since then there have been many other experiments with other markets: Hollywood Stock Exchange where people bet on future box office receipts and Foresight Exchange where traders bet on the outcomes of unresolved scientific and societal questions. http://www.hsx.com/ Hollywood Stock Market http://artificialmarkets.com/ Articficial Markets http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/ Policy Analysis Market

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Geek.com Geek News - Mini-Review: Dazzle Universal 6-in-1 card reader (fwd)
by Jim Choate 29 Jul '03

29 Jul '03

http://www.geek.com/news/geeknews/2003Jul/bpd20030729020757.htm -- ____________________________________________________________________ We are all interested in the future for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives. Criswell, "Plan 9 from Outer Space" ravage(a)ssz.com jchoate(a)open-forge.org www.ssz.com www.open-forge.org --------------------------------------------------------------------

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Someone at the Pentagon read Shockwave Rider over the weekend
by Jamie Lawrence 29 Jul '03

29 Jul '03

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=6&u=/ap/20030729/ap_o… WASHINGTON - The Pentagon (news - web sites) is setting up a stock-market style system in which investors would bet on terror attacks, assassinations and other events in the Middle East. Defense officials hope to gain intelligence and useful predictions while investors who guessed right would win profits. -j -- Jamie Lawrence jal(a)jal.org The strength of our liberty depends upon the chaos and cacophony of the unfettered speech the First Amendment protects. - Judge Stewart Dalzell

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Re: Pentagon discovers Assasination Politics, deadpools
by Major Variola (ret) 29 Jul '03

29 Jul '03

Re: Pentagon pulls their AP plans.. It was simply too obviously free feedback (marketing data) for their domestic PSYOPs people. Now they'll have to go back to interpreting CNN (etc) polls to find out which way the sheeple are stampeding.

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RE: Someone at the Pentagon read Shockwave Rider over the weekend
by Trei, Peter 29 Jul '03

29 Jul '03

> Tim May[SMTP:timcmay@got.net] > > > On Tuesday, July 29, 2003, at 09:26 AM, Bill Stewart wrote: > > > Also, NYT Article was > > http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html?th > > > > But it sounds like they've chickened out, because various people > > freaked > > about the implications. (And they only got as far as it being > > "an incentive to commit terrorism", without getting to > > "a funding method for terrorism" or to "Assassination Politics".) > > > > > > Not to mention the obvious problems with letting government agents bid > on things like when various unwanted foreign leaders would be > assassinated. > Over on Dave Farber's IP list, it's been pointed out that there is a pre-existing, live, real-money market in futures on these types of events. Go over to www.tradesports.com, and click on 'Current Events' under 'Trading Catagories' on the left. Drill down and you'll find things like 'WMDs will be found in Iraq on or before Sept 31', the value of which has dropped from 80 to 25 over the last few months. Peter Trei

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RE: Dead Body Theatre
by Rayburn, Russell E. 29 Jul '03

29 Jul '03

While not arguing the specifics of the socioeconomic situation in India, remember that per capita income is only half the equation. Cost of living is the other half of the equation. Within the U.S., cost of living varies widely between cities. See: http://www.bestplaces.net/html/cost_of_living.html For examples. -----Original Message----- From: Mike Rosing [mailto:eresrch@eskimo.com] <snip> Out of a population of 900 million (or so) that's definitly the wings of the bell curve. The "poverty line" in the US is twice the middle class income of India. That's pretty stunning. </snip> <snip> In the US, anyone below $20,000/yr income is "poor". According to that, 90% of India is "dirt poor"!! </snip>

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Bids on Wolfwitz's assassination
by Tim May 29 Jul '03

29 Jul '03

http://www.pentagon-terror-market/employees.com WOLFOWITZ, PAUL: ODDS FOR ASSASSINATION BY 2003-11-15: 7:3 ODDS FOR NECKLACING OF HIS FAMILY MEMBERS BY 2004-02-15: 12:2 ODDS THAT NEXT PENTAGON BLAST WILL TAKE HIM OUT BY 2003-10-05: 7:1 I guess now that the Pentagon is setting up a murder pool it can't be illegal for us to do it. --Tim May, Corralitos, California Quote of the Month: "It is said that there are no atheists in foxholes; perhaps there are no true libertarians in times of terrorist attacks." --Cathy Young, "Reason Magazine," both enemies of liberty.

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Dead Body Theatre
by Eric Cordian 29 Jul '03

29 Jul '03

I just noticed all news channels on the boob tube are showing endless repetitions of what the US alleges are the dead bodies of Saddam Hussein's sons. We all know how easy it is to make realistic fake pictures now that everything is digital, so I was thinking what a cool hack it would be to Photoshop some similar pictures of the Bush daughters, and post them on the Internet for everyone to enjoy. Now that the new standard for pre-emptive war is to murder the legitimate leader of another sovereign nation and his entire family, an "artist's rendering" of Shrub reaping what he sows would surely be an excellent political statement. -- Eric Michael Cordian 0+ O:.T:.O:. Mathematical Munitions Division "Do What Thou Wilt Shall Be The Whole Of The Law"

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