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Re: [HunchLab] Predicting Crime in Miami
by Patrick Connolly 25 Jun '15

25 Jun '15

I was at the international open data conference a few weeks ago, and caught something similar coming out of Edmonton, AB, Canada. They basically feed a bunch of data sets into the system, and over the course of a few days, a "rule inducer" generates a bunch of interesting geographic rules that correllate with certain types of crime. Then the city tries to make sense of the complex rules and tease apart correlation and causation. http://www.edmontonjournal.com/City+harnesses+data+understand+crime/1071643… Message: 4 > Date: Wed, 24 Jun 2015 13:30:55 -0700 > From: Razer <Rayzer(a)riseup.net> > To: cypherpunks(a)cpunks.org > Subject: Re: [HunchLab] Predicting Crime in Miami > Message-ID: <558B137F.8060809(a)riseup.net> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="windows-1252" > > > > On 06/24/2015 09:31 AM, Tim Beelen wrote: > > This is how it's pitched to the community: > >> > http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article19256145.… > >> > > > > FTA: The Miami police currently is using COMPSTAT, which does not > > predict where crime will happen insofar it tells you where it has been > > taking place. In addition they will start using HunchLab at some point. > > > > > Locally, the police department decided to partner with PredPol > /(snigger: 'Server And Protect')/. Early one morning at Starbucks I saw > a shift captain who also did PD PR work on the phone discussing an > article that was about to appear regarding the topic in a local > newspaper. He emphatically and repeatedly said: > > "DO NOT call it 'Predictive Policing'!" > > He obviously didn't believe it was a correct phrase to describe "Guessing". > > RR > > Ps. The use of computers to resolve cold-cases mentioned below isn't > really relevant to the topic of computers allegedly predicting future > crime. ALso, I suspect predictive software will simply create better > opportunities for more convincing false flag operations by people > affiliated with (but perhaps not directly connected to) police agencies. > > I'd extrapolate on those operations (at least ones noted locally) but > [off-topic], so I decline. > > > > An associate professor from Florida International University, Rob T. > > Guerette is expected to become their local expert on this piece of > > software. The person who wrote the grant for it is Lt. Sean MacDonald. > >> http://cj.fiu.edu/people/faculty/rob-guerette/ > > > > The article claims that similar software has "... helped prevent and > > stop property crimes, and is now being tested on gun crimes." > > > > Which makes me curious as about the kind of heuristics that they are > > using. > > > > HunchLab apparently produces maps showing small areas where specific > > crimes are likely to be committed. > > > > This is not a new turn of events, as Miami-Dade’s robbery division > > uses IBM's Blue PALMS to solve cold cases. The software connects to a > > database of every crime ever documented by Miami-Dade police. > > Detectives enter the details of an unsolved crime and the program > > produces a list of 20 suspects. > > > > Now the part of the Nuevo Herald's article that cough my attention is > > the moment that it starts speculating about it's effectiveness. > > The last few sentences juxtapose the potential volatility of it's > > predictions with who is responsible for it's "effectiveness". > > > > HunchLab uses a wider dataset than the rough equivalent PredPol. > > Annotated with the official final statement that the tool will only be > > "...as good as the officers using it." > > > > Putting the burden of proof of it's effectiveness squarely on the > > shoulders of the officers forced to use it. Which is, in my opinion, > > ridiculous. Since the software is supposed to predict the crime and > > not the other way around. > > > > I highly suspect that it grabs a bunch of data, normalizes it for the > > use with a map and starts looking for some correlation coefficient and > > then looks if it's statistically significant. I.e. it's a null > > hypothesis-- exactly what Larry Samuels, CEO of PredPol tries to warn > > them about expecting weird results. Since that is exactly what you get > > when you grow your dataset and statistically analyze the date using > > correlation coefficients + phi. > > > > Anyway. Who build this software? And what does it do? > > >

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[HunchLab] Predicting Crime in Miami
by Tim Beelen 25 Jun '15

25 Jun '15

This is how it's pitched to the community: > http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article19256145.… FTA: The Miami police currently is using COMPSTAT, which does not predict where crime will happen insofar it tells you where it has been taking place. In addition they will start using HunchLab at some point. An associate professor from Florida International University, Rob T. Guerette is expected to become their local expert on this piece of software. The person who wrote the grant for it is Lt. Sean MacDonald. > http://cj.fiu.edu/people/faculty/rob-guerette/ The article claims that similar software has "... helped prevent and stop property crimes, and is now being tested on gun crimes." Which makes me curious as about the kind of heuristics that they are using. HunchLab apparently produces maps showing small areas where specific crimes are likely to be committed. This is not a new turn of events, as Miami-Dade’s robbery division uses IBM's Blue PALMS to solve cold cases. The software connects to a database of every crime ever documented by Miami-Dade police. Detectives enter the details of an unsolved crime and the program produces a list of 20 suspects. Now the part of the Nuevo Herald's article that cough my attention is the moment that it starts speculating about it's effectiveness. The last few sentences juxtapose the potential volatility of it's predictions with who is responsible for it's "effectiveness". HunchLab uses a wider dataset than the rough equivalent PredPol. Annotated with the official final statement that the tool will only be "...as good as the officers using it." Putting the burden of proof of it's effectiveness squarely on the shoulders of the officers forced to use it. Which is, in my opinion, ridiculous. Since the software is supposed to predict the crime and not the other way around. I highly suspect that it grabs a bunch of data, normalizes it for the use with a map and starts looking for some correlation coefficient and then looks if it's statistically significant. I.e. it's a null hypothesis-- exactly what Larry Samuels, CEO of PredPol tries to warn them about expecting weird results. Since that is exactly what you get when you grow your dataset and statistically analyze the date using correlation coefficients + phi. Anyway. Who build this software? And what does it do?

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UNLEASHED AND UNACCOUNTABLE The FBI’s Unchecked Abuse of Authority
by coderman 24 Jun '15

24 Jun '15

https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/assets/unleashed-and-unaccountable…

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"The government does not concede that [redacted] is a journalist"
by coderman 24 Jun '15

24 Jun '15

title derived from the absurdity that is the wikileaks prosecution. - https://storify.com/bbhorne/jacob-appelbaum-s-legal-disclosure-from-google-… i've been critical of Jake in the past, and part of that was fueled by misinformation (character assassination). in the infosec realm, Jake gets flak for occasionally running rough shod over fine details. the infosec pedant find this irritating, but the actual haters (JTRIG lackeys? :) rely on this to attempt to discredit entirely. hating on 0day sales and exploit kits also wins few infosec friends, even though many others in industry also find this element distasteful. now that rat fuck hector is out of the game, they've surely turned to others. [ how much of Sabu targeting ioerror is at Fed behest? Nadim also by request? ] --- i repeat my earlier apology, and note that Jake responded to my personal attacks with respect and civility - this, among other deeds, demonstrates integrity and effort to improve self. thank you Jake! --- FBI closed my FOIA request for use of "disruption strategy" as too vague; a record denial among my many MuckRocking's, hence i will be digging more thoroughly in this direction in multiple future FOIAs. if anyone has other pointers to good examples of this disruption tactic in action, or other helpful hints, i'd like to hear them! :) best regards,

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Re: U. S. A.! A-me-ri-cah, f--- yeah! - How to rule the world, U.S. style
by Shelley 24 Jun '15

24 Jun '15

...how in the hell did you get to someone doing test charges to guess your cvv2s from trying to armchair-psychoanalyze Juan and issuing blanket insults to Europeans, et al? If you're going to post Aspie word salad like this, you have no basis to complain about what Juan and Zenaan post. At least they have a point. Take your meds, Tim ;) -S ---------- On June 24, 2015 7:17:32 AM Tim Beelen <tim(a)diffalt.com> wrote: > > > On 6/23/2015 11:12 PM, Juan wrote: > > On Tue, 23 Jun 2015 21:39:21 -0400 > > Tim Beelen <tim(a)diffalt.com> wrote: > > > >> I think Cathal's comment was a general remark. It did not necessarily > >> concern you. > > > > I disagree. "Ted Smith" is explicitly whining about me > > > > "But now there are 2-3 posters who continually post random > > conspiracy crap" > > > > and given the 'context' of the thread, Cathal is also commenting > > on those '2 or 3' posters. Zeenan - and me. > > > > > > > > > >>> Oh yes. I'm anti west agent on the payroll of? Putin? The chinese? > >>> Or? > >> I think you're South American. Your rhetoric squarely puts you there. > >> Overly defensive on the subject of projecting power. Blatantly > >> anti-American (rhetoric only, if you'd ever find yourself living here > >> you'd find yourself a lot less radical and carry yourself a bit more > >> respectful) > > > > So, did you look me up in the NSA database or not? That was the > > exercise. > > > > Your first conjecture is unwarranted. People from all over the > > world rightly despise the US government and its supporters. > > > > Now, if my 'rhetoric' drew inspiration from che guevara you > > might deduce that I'm from south america. However my > > 'rhetoric' (political philosophy actualy) can be traced to the > > likes of Lysander Spooner and other private property anarchists, > > who, I assure you, aren't popular authors in south america. Or > > anywhere else for that matter. > > > I read the motorcycle diaries-- and loved it. I have not read Lysander. > > I squarely base my assumptions on you being incongruous. And I'll have > you know-- every man is a sum of it's experiences. So I can tell quite > reliable where people are from. You are, if only partly, a product of > your own government. > > > > > >> You are very sensitive on the subject of being run over by a foreign > >> power indicates a permanent identity crisis (Argentine) as to where > >> you fit in the world of things. > > > > Okay. So now we've descended into psychobable. 'identity > > crisis'? Mildly amusing. > > > > You did a couple of searches and correctly found out that I > > come from argentina - the info is in the public domain. And > > based on that, you are making up a story. > Maybe. But I'm pleased I was right. I wasn't sure I was right. Again, > incongruancies (has a red squiggly I don't know how to spell it). > Everyone talks shit non-sequitur. It triggers something in my brain > (anger mostly) and I sort people by who they are based on that. It is > one of my things. > > >> Your over-sized ego i.e. taking things personally that are actually a > >> general remark is quite a cultural trait. So is calling people by > >> name instead of addressing the issue. > >> > >> Everything North of Chile sans Bolivia has common sensibilities > >> towards the Government. Brazilians are not that outspoken, better at > >> diverting and quite introverted. Bolivian culture is more refined and > >> does not call out people like it's taking a piss. That makes you > >> Chilean, Argentinian or Spanish. > >> > >> You're not European. Your English is too good. > > > > Now that's interesting. How do you go from "good english"* to > > "not european"? If anything, europeans from germanic countries > > are likely to speak (way) better english than me. > > > > *and my english is so so at any rate. > Not necessarily true. You'd be surprised which people I consider > functionally illiterate (not in the actual meaning, but diminished > ability to convey information in writing etc.). Usually conflict areas > are great places to look for people who can actually put two and two > together and subsequently rely on language to convey critical > information that is generally more particular and less generic. Which > develops certain language skills. So far, the best all-round experience > I had concerning people and their functional literacy: Albania, Finland, > South Africa, Denmark, UAE, South South America. Great experience with > Afghan refugees. Just to name a few. The Swiss. Singaporeans. But > overall not mainland Europeans. > > Mainland Europeans are over all a hit or miss. In Spain just about no > one speaks proper English. > > The average European. Even though they have a rudimentary understanding > of the English language a lot of them can't formulate a sentence to save > their life. They rarely have any deeper understanding of idiom BECAUSE > it resembles their own language. Also they fuck up the prepositions. > > > > > >> And my guess is Argentinian. > > > > Nominally, yes. I was born here and that's it. > > > > Now find out what government (terrorist organization) I work > > for. Take into account that the argentine government isn't > > going to pay me or anybody else to discuss libertarian > > principles on an obscure mailing list. > No. You're a disgruntled individual. You work for yourself. > > > > Anyway, this is getting too boring. I suggest you ask "Ted > > Smith" to post some real cypherpunk stuff. Like, how great the > > pentagon's anonimity network is and how it spreads cancer, I > > mean democracy in china. Or something. > > > > > Wut. > > Cypherpunk-ness for me comes mainly in the form of using crypto so > secure my data and the information of others. Good examples are, I can > run a VPN to access my documents remotely-- but I could also use sftp. > Which is easier to implement? Arguably SFTP. Added bonus is that my RSA > certificates can be used to auth for both implementations. > > I encrypt client data with my public PGP key on a public server. Prefer > the KISS model to cyber security rather then adding layers. VLAN? > retarded. VPN? retarded (most use cases). Why do we (I) use these tools? > Because the attacker, in my case, which usually comes from overseas are > individuals looking for stuff to break into. CC numbers. That sort of > thing. > > And most of my problems originate from India and China. Not that that is > a reliable statement since we all know that the perp can be in Djibouti > for all we know. But not very likely because most people don't care that > much for OPSEC. They are not governments. 404s on my server: 70-80% > originates from India/China. Port scans are almost all from India. > > And what really grinds my gears is that with shit standards like PCI > compliance most payment gateways in the U.S. are 100% open. > > EXAMPLE: if I use my CC in a particular mall at a particular store, one > month from now I get a call from the bank and have multiple $1 test > charges of people guessing my CVC code. It had to happen 5 times before > I could connect the dots. And it's all foreign malicious attacks. No > governments. > > We need crypto to get in there and secure my transactions. Regardless if > you think that CC companies are the square root of all evil. > > > > > > > > J. > > > >> On 6/23/2015 9:03 PM, Juan wrote: > >>> On Tue, 23 Jun 2015 19:27:47 -0400 > >>> Tim Beelen <tim(a)diffalt.com> wrote: > >>> > >>>> Juan, you just put yourself up as an unsolicited reference for > >>>> COINTELPRO. Good Job. > >>> I'm trying to decypher...what the hell you mean? > >>> > >>> > >>>> Juan Garofalo. > >>> Right. Look me up in the nsa database and report back > >>> please. > >>> > >>> >

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Request for transcript (July 3rd) - " Investigating Investigators — Investigative Techniques for Investigating Investigators "
by coderman 24 Jun '15

24 Jun '15

http://nr15.sched.org/event/5c164b6566b5a9ff3ce852078953016d# this is a fun subject, but public discourse comes with difficulties. e.g. LinkedIn lock-down post cleared work employee disclosure...

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Russia and China crack Snowden Cache
by grarpamp 24 Jun '15

24 Jun '15

http://politics.slashdot.org/story/15/06/14/0441220/report-russia-and-china… Russia and China have cracked the top-secret cache of files stolen by the fugitive US whistleblower Edward Snowden, forcing MI6 to pull agents out of live operations in hostile countries, according to senior officials in Downing Street, the Home Office and the security services.

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LA Governor Vetoes License Plate Readers
by grarpamp 24 Jun '15

24 Jun '15

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2015/06/louisiana-governor-vetoes-licens… Senate Bill No. 250 would authorize the use of automatic license plate reader camera surveillance programs in various parishes throughout the state. The personal information captured by these cameras, which includes a person’s vehicle location, would be retained in a central database and accessible to not only participating law enforcement agencies but other specified private entities for a period of time regardless of whether or not the system detects that a person is in violation of vehicle insurance requirements. Camera programs such as these that make private information readily available beyond the scope of law enforcement, pose a fundamental risk to personal privacy and create large pools of information belonging to law abiding citizens that unfortunately can be extremely vulnerable to theft or misuse. For these reasons, I have vetoed Senate Bill No. 250 and hereby return it to the Senate.

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Software Licenses prove no obstacle to abuse by abusive actors (eg: HESSLA)
by grarpamp 24 Jun '15

24 Jun '15

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/06/22/nsa-gchq-targeted-kaspersky/ https://firstlook.org/theintercept/document/2015/06/22/gchq-warrant-renewal/ GCHQ felt it needed [secret] legal cover to conduct [the activity], writing in the warrant renewal application that the practice could otherwise be “unlawful” and amount to “a copyright infringement or breach of contract." ... The warrant ... applies ... to intellectual property ... and to certain categories of domestic policing. ... In each case it was necessary to use this warrant as the product license explicitly forbade [the activity]. ... etcetera...

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Bahraini government's attempt to slow down the internet during 'Arab Spring' disturbances unsuccessful
by Razer 23 Jun '15

23 Jun '15

Methinks this is really more appropriately titled 'attempt to slow down uprising *communication*' but FYI: It /(Saudi diplo-dox released by wikileaks)/ also mentions the Bahraini government's attempt to slow down the internet was not successful because Shiite activists have other ways of communicating, while those that work with international organizations have phones provided for them. Wikileaks Docs Reveal Saudi intrigues against Bahrain’s Arab Spring http://www.juancole.com/2015/06/wikileaks-intrigues-bahrains.html Interpretation of more Saudi wikileaks dox onsite

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