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Behind the curve. The mathematics of deaths.
by Peter Fairbrother 30 Dec '20

30 Dec '20

Please recirculate freely. Behind the curve. The mathematics of deaths. The present United Kingdom strategy on COVID-19 was to initially try to contain the virus with a weak containment policy, and when that failed to move to the "delay phase" we are in now to try to slow its spread. This delay would place a lower maximum load on healthcare, spread heathcare requirements over time, and thereby allow more per-patient care. An underlying assumption and consequential end result of that policy is that practically everybody in the UK will inevitably eventually catch the virus. And the Red Death will hold illimitable dominion over all. The strategy made sense if, as was believed when it was made, there would be no way of eventually stopping the epidemic by containment, something I myself believed. However, that does not seem to be the case: the disease is not quite as infectious as at first thought, as recent evidence shows that the Chinese have managed to slow it almost to a stop using strong confinement. If they succeed in containing the disease, as seems very likely, then most Chinese people will never catch the virus - whereas if the present UK policy is continued then at some point a majority of people in the UK will catch the disease, and a million people will die unnecessarily [1]. So what new policy should be adopted? Well we have the Chinese example to follow. Strong containment is working for the Chinese, it should work for us. All people entering the UK should be quarantined. The UK has a "moat" in the seas surrounding it, and should take advantage of that. Schools and universities should close. Large public gatherings should be banned. People should be encouraged to wear masks, not discouraged - even a tiny difference in transmission rate can be the straw which will make the difference between the epidemic dying out or growing: that is how the chain reaction of an epidemic works. If each infected person infects more than one other person on average then the epidemic spreads, if on average each infected person infects less than one then the epidemic dies out. We should be taking extreme measures to get that figure of new infections per case down to less than 1. Testing should be stepped up by at least an order of magnitude. Medical staff should have the power to require testing, and if positive then quarantine should be enforced if necessary. But most of all, we have to stop thinking that a million people will die and there is nothing we can do to prevent it. Diligent and intense containment can work if we are willing to pay the price now, the Chinese example is proof of that. Any delay in implementing strong containment will cost lives. Failing to implement strong confinement will result in a million unnecessary deaths over the next few months. [1] "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic." - Joe Stalin. The UK age demographic contains more older people than the Chinese, and older people are far more likely to die of COVID-19 than younger people; so the UK fatality rate would be more than the Chinese rate, which works out to a bit over a million deaths if we assume 3/4 of the population get the virus. A delay to provide better health care might reduce the death toll to about a million. Strong confinement now could reduce it to a few thousand. Peter Fairbrother

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[spam] unsubscribing
by Karl 30 Dec '20

30 Dec '20

goodbye until i obsessively come back! i'm having trouble finding willpower not to post to this list in ways i'd rather not. i figure it's fine to message since i am spamming the list all the time anyway.

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UN invitation for Cypherpunks
by Debian Community News Team 30 Dec '20

30 Dec '20

Please come... https://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Business/Forum/Pages/2020ForumBHR.aspx and please share

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DECRYPT - becoming human
by professor rat 29 Dec '20

29 Dec '20

Litecoin replaces XRP ( Ripple ) as forth biggest crypto-currency. https://decrypt.co/51514/the-man-who-gave-it-all-up-for-litecoin Big four now Btc - Etherium - Bitcoin cash - Litecoin. I may invest in Ltc this year! The ' Peoples Silver '! Eth and Bch just nauseate me.

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Finding non-compromised humans
by professor rat 29 Dec '20

29 Dec '20

The peasant class and political prisoners are always important for anarchists to support just as fascists like Nazi's ( Zenaan Harkness ) and Marxist communists ( jamesd and Batshit crazy) are always important to stop dead...in their tracks. Long live the globalized anarchist revolution.

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Re: Yes...
by Cecilia Tanaka 29 Dec '20

29 Dec '20

On Tue, Dec 29, 2020, 04:44 Punk-BatSoup-Stasi 2.0 <punks(a)tfwno.gf> wrote: > On Tue, 29 Dec 2020 04:23:49 -0300 > Cecilia Tanaka <cecilia.tanaka(a)gmail.com> wrote: > <SNIP> > > bottom line : the only stuff you can post is the completely > idiotic, completely off-topic stuff you constantly post. > Exactly like you, don't you? :( And it is a shit, because you are intelligent, curious, learn things really fast, knows a lot about surviving, is fun and also very funny, and already gave me great tips of cooking, reading, traveling... You are a good private friend, but a horrible public friend. ======== "All The Wars Against Us We Against All The Wars" We must fight poverty, not the poors, not the people... Did you feel hunger while had no place to stay? It's much worse when you are a small girl. An exotic Oriental girl, pretty cute. The fear of finally fainting when you are really exhausted and waking up with a man over you... Oh, the ol' good days... And the menstruation is a very embarrassing thing. Blood can be very scary for some people. I do not care about broken bones or worse things, but some people become crazy when see blood and you were not ready for this. I am still the same, Juan, but you are becoming bitter and forgetting who I am behind the pink hair and all the roses, music and poetry... I have scars in my skin to remember me who I am. You do not know this kind of pain. Do not be a hypocrite, please.

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Fwd: Check in
by Karl 29 Dec '20

29 Dec '20

regarding karl's schizophrenia, i'm trying to blockchain this thread using D:// . these transactions have this message and are currently in the mempool: 71a6cde341d03ba48cc385bbbdef98784a81981c37fd8b34ec6df36aa7342232 08f72a3332805fe4b1d41fbf33953a8c87838d7e9b6b20ee3c0c5a780fdd6163 9664b984437541a1d01fd5ea13b699daff0908e5bc151369ebccb00d5042c51d . I expect them to confirm within a few hours. Not all the messages are uploaded yet, including some left out. I plan to upload the ones I left out. [for people learning to read my mind: this error is analogous to how blockchain timestamps are not monotonic] ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Karl <gmkarl(a)gmail.com> Date: Sat, Dec 26, 2020 at 7:22 AM Subject: Check in To: Jonathan Chack <jchack(a)fccsvt.com> Cc: J William Semich <bsemich(a)mac.com>, Kyla Hershey-Wilson <notetokyla(a)gmail.com>, Katrina Semich <katrina.semich(a)gmail.com> [sorry if I cc'd the wrong person, I am a little confused, trying to include invested parties appropriately] Hi, > I understand that the videotaping is important for you and I want to support you in this regard. I have located a local therapist that currently uses this type of therapy his name is Andrew Morton and he has an office in Rutland, VT. I would be happy to do a referral for you to his office should you decide you would like to try that type of therapy. > > Let me know your thoughts > > Christopher Chadwick, MS, LADC, AFC > Director > > Forensic Consultation & Counseling Service, LLC I may have gone through an abusive politcal situation of brainwashing and slavery, that I don't believe has resolved yet, out there. I haven't really talked with anybody about this yet. I'd like to be able to personally record the sessions when I want to, so that I can review them later, and for others to find if something happens to me. Do you know where to go to find this therapy? Thanks so much,

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Finding non-compromised humans
by Zenaan Harkness 29 Dec '20

29 Dec '20

Need a non compromised human, for your political seat (e.g. for the Replace A RINO campaign), for your government administrative/executive position, or simply as an advisor? Pick a multi-generational farmer. As a bonus, they often have uncommon common sense. We hear Trump's "revolving doors" at the White House are a problem. Well that's a great opportunity to simply change the model. Put farmers in power.

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The US military 'outlook' and 'mindset'
by professor rat 29 Dec '20

29 Dec '20

This might be an interesting exercise - hands up all cypherpunks that physically opposed - more than once - both the US invasions of both Vietnam in the 1960's and the US invasion of Iraq. I can put my anti-US military credentials up against anybody.

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We're entering the golden age of anarchism
by professor rat 29 Dec '20

29 Dec '20

https://www.darkreading.com/edge/theedge/homomorphic-encryption-the-golden-… Craig Gentry, now a research fellow at the blockchain-focused Algorand Foundation, developed the first fully homomorphic encryption scheme for his doctoral dissertation at Stanford University in 2009.

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