December 2024 - cypherpunks - lists.cpunks.org

The Head of Fixed Income at T. Rowe Price Makes the Scary Case for the 10-Year Treasury to Spike to 6 Percent
by Gunnar Larson 17 Dec '24

17 Dec '24

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2024/12/the-head-of-fixed-income-at-t-rowe-p… By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 17, 2024 ~ Arif Husain, Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income, T. Rowe Price Arif Husain, Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income, T. Rowe Price Arif Husain is the head of Global Fixed Income and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of the Fixed Income Division of T. Rowe Price. He is also a member of the firm’s Management Committee. Husain holds a B.Sc. (honors) in banking and international finance from the City University London, Cass Business School. When Husain speaks, Wall Street listens. What Husain has been saying since October is that the U.S. is on a collision course with higher interest rates. In October, Husain released his interest rate outlook for the next six months, writing the following about the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, whose yield impacts mortgage rates and a wide swath of debt instruments: “I think that the 10-year Treasury yield will test the 5.0% threshold in the next six months, steepening the yield curve. There are three dynamics at play: 1. Fed rate cuts could limit yield increases on short-maturity Treasury bills. 2. Ongoing issuance by the Treasury to fund the government’s deficit spending is flooding the market with new supply. 3. The Fed’s quantitative tightening has taken a large, reliable buyer of Treasuries out of the market, further skewing the balance of supply and demand in favor of higher yields.” Husain’s analysis in October had yet to factor in the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Now that there is no longer any doubt that President-elect Donald Trump and his promised tariffs and tax cuts must be factored into any interest rate forecast, Husain had this to say on a November 22 Global Market Webinar at T. Rowe Price when queried by his colleague, Investment Specialist Ritu Vohora: Vohora: So coming to you now, Arif. You know, Blerina talked there about one of the key risks is around fiscal policy. The U.S. deficit is on track to be 7% of GDP at the end of the year. I think the interest expense alone is going to be higher than the defense budget, which is mind-boggling. When should we start worrying about the debt burden? I feel like we talk about it, but when do we actually start worrying? Husain: You should be worried right now. I think, certainly, the initial reaction in the bond market post-the-election was to go after some of the fiscal laggards. So, the European peripheral market got hit. The UK bond market got hit, and so did the U.S. Now there’s been plenty of volatility. So I think you got to be worried about the bond market. I’m on record of saying I think the U.S. 10-year will get to 5%. I said that before the election. There’s only more evidence, new information, to think, to believe that and frankly, I said 5%, because 5% you need to go through 5 to get to 6. So for me, what will create fiscal austerity? What will create a little bit more discipline around the deficit? Can’t see it. I really can’t see it. And really, I think the real thing that most people miss when they’re just looking at the U.S. fiscal deficit is a really simple point, which is the U.S. are not the only people who need to sell a lot of debt. A huge, huge amount of debt. You know, Justin was talking about Chinese stimulus a moment ago. Guess what that is: debt issuance. And every country with the exception of Germany, actually, the German debt break is one of their structural, one of the structural issues holding them back a little bit, but from a bond holder’s perspective it’s a positive, right, but other than that, everyone is selling lots and lots and lots of debt in a time when central banks are no longer buying it. And so from a global perspective, I think we really need to worry about deficits and the lack of plan to address them. And the U.S. is at the front of the queue there. You know, every week, every second week, they’ve got to, they come with massive bond issuance and really to my mind, bond yields need to be a lot higher to be competitive. And you’ve got to see a much steeper yield curve to make that longer duration debt a lot more attractive. At this point in the webinar, another colleague asks Husain, “Arif, did you, did you just call for 6% U.S. 10-year as a possibility?” Husain responds: “I think we’ll see 5 before 6, that’s for sure.” This morning, Husain’s outlook for rising interest rates in the U.S. is getting a lot more attention. Bloomberg News has put excerpts from a new report by Husain in a headlined article on its digital front page. The article is apparently syndicated, because it is being picked up by other news outlets, including Yahoo! Finance. If Husain is correct and the 10-year Treasury yield blows past 5 percent on its way to 6 percent, there are going to be a lot more than bond holders licking their wounds. (As yields on bonds rise in the secondary market, their market price declines in order to bring their yield to the going rate on new bonds of the same maturity.) Because the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury impacts mortgage interest rates, a rise in its yield could price more home buyers out of the market because they would be unable to afford the higher monthly mortgage cost. This could lead to a slump in home prices and potentially negatively impact consumer sentiment. A yield of 5 percent or higher on the 10-year Treasury note could also lure money out of stocks and into Treasuries. Should a stock exodus become a stampede, a handful of tech stocks trading at nosebleed valuations might plunge, leading to more selloffs. Since Donald Trump’s ego is bound up in the stock market only rising when he’s in the driver’s seat, this could lead to Trump making imprudent demands on the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, or firing him as a scapegoat. Since Powell has said he will serve out his term as Fed Chair, irrespective of Trump’s threats to fire him, a Trump-Powell debacle could unnerve foreign investors, leading to capital flight out of the U.S. In fact, we’re shocked we haven’t seen that already, given the chaos Trump has outlined for his first 100 days in office.

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Anchorage Digital Awarded BitLicense From NY Regulator
by Gunnar Larson 17 Dec '24

17 Dec '24

Anchorage Digital Awarded BitLicense From NY Regulator <https://www.law360.com/compliance/articles/2274343?nl_pk=ab5ce197-c1fb-4d8e…> By Katryna Perera Anchorage Digital said Monday it has received a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services, allowing the cryptocurrency platform to offer regulated crypto trading to New York-based clients and giving it the ability to custody and settle trades through chartered custodian Anchorage Digital Bank. Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/compliance/articles/2274343?nl_pk=ab5ce197-c1fb-4d8e…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/compliance/articles/2274343?nl_pk=ab5ce197-c1fb-4d8e…>

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NYC Mayor Eric Adams Calls for an End to the BitLicense Scheme
by Gunnar Larson 17 Dec '24

17 Dec '24

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nyc-mayor-eric-adams-calls-052130588.html Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance Sign in Search query Search for news or symbols SURPRISE OF THE YEAR Why General Motors is Yahoo Finance's 2024 winner FX Empire NYC Mayor Eric Adams Calls for an End to the BitLicense Scheme Bob Mason April 28, 2022 4 min read Buying Nvidia in 2024? Wall Street Legend Issues Urgent A.I. Stock Warning The Chaikin Report Ad Key Insights: On Wednesday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams called for an end to the BitLicense scheme. Crypto-related firms avoid New York due to the need to obtain a BitLicense. NewYorkCoin (NYC) holders cannot trade NYC due to BitLicense requirements. It is a busy week for New York lawmakers, who have placed greater attention on digital assets. Amidst rising government and regulatory scrutiny, New York lawmakers are looking to address the impact of Proof-of-Work mining on the environment and curb a rise in illicit activity. The recent legislative maneuvers could impact New York’s hope of becoming a digital hub. One issue that New York City continues to face is the need for crypto firms to obtain a BitLicense. The issue has become significant enough for New York City Mayor Eric Adams to raise the subject publicly. New York City Mayor Adams Calls to End to the BitLicense Scheme This week, New York City Mayor Adams was one of the key speakers at the Financial Times Crypto and Digital Assets Summit. On Wednesday, Mayor Adams discussed the BitLicensing regime, highlighting its impact on economic growth and innovation. Mayor Adams reportedly added, “It’s about thinking not only outside the box, but on this one, we may have to destroy the box.” In March, FX Empire reported a snag with NewYorkCoin (NYC). According to the report, crypto exchanges that have procured a BitLicense have not listed NYC, which prevents citizens from trading in NYC. The report states that “New York’s BitLicense regulatory regime is the most demanding in the United States. Digital currency firms in New York currently have to apply for a BitLicense, which can take years to process.” Powered by Stacks (STX), CityCoins is “a protocol that enables smart contracts on the Bitcoin network.” Miners can forward STX into the Stacks protocol. CityCoins miners receive 70% of all stacked STX tokens in NewYorkCoin. Miners can then mine the rewarded NYC to earn BTC rewards. The requirement for a BitLicense has led to crypto-related firms moving or establishing elsewhere. It is not the first time Mayor Adams has shared his view on Bitcoin. In February, Mayor Adams voiced his opposition to crypto mining at a local government budget hearing. For Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market, the opposition to crypto mining came despite Adams taking a Bitcoin salary and supporting the introduction of NewYorkCoin (NYC). The comments from Mayor Adams follow New York lawmakers presenting new crypto-related bills. New York Lawmaker Bills Question Digital Hub Aspirations This week, lawmakers have presented two crypto-related bills. On Wednesday, FX Empire reported on a new Proof-of-Work mining bill, Assembly bill A7389C. Currently awaiting a Senate vote, the bill, “establishes a moratorium on cryptocurrency mining operations that use proof-of-work authentication methods to validate blockchain transactions; provides that such operations shall be subject to a full generic environmental impact statement review.” The bill went on further to say that, for a period of two years, the Department of Public Service will not approve a new application or issue a new permit for “an electric generating facility that utilizes carbon-based fuel and that provides, in whole or in part, behind-the-meter electric energy consumed or utilized by cryptocurrency mining operations that use proof-of-work authentication methods to validate blockchain transactions.” In addition, the Department of Public Service may not approve an application to renew an existing permit during the two-year period. The second bill, Senate Bill S8839, relates to illegal activity and has yet to be debated. New York lawmaker Kevin Thomas introduced a bill to criminalize illicit activity across the digital asset space. The bill, “Establishes the offenses of virtual token fraud, illegal rug pulls, private key fraud, and fraudulent failure to disclose interest in virtual tokens.” Proposed penalties include, “a civil fine of not more than five million dollars or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both, except where such a person is a person other than a natural person, a fine not exceeding twenty-five million dollars.” For New York to not lose out to the likes of Florida and other crypto-friendly states, lawmakers may need to consider the Mayor’s comments.

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Minn. Panel Revives $1.5M Fire Loss Row Against State Farm
by Gunnar Larson 17 Dec '24

17 Dec '24

Minn. Panel Revives $1.5M Fire Loss Row Against State Farm <https://www.law360.com/insurance/articles/2274615?nl_pk=59612751-8689-4b1e-…> By Ganesh Setty A Minnesota state appeals court revived a property owner's $1.5 million bid for additional coverage over a building fire, finding Monday that while state law and the owner's State Farm policy required it to sue within two years of the loss, that requirement didn't extend to the owner's appraisal demand. Opinion attached | Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/insurance/articles/2274615?nl_pk=59612751-8689-4b1e-…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/insurance/articles/2274615?nl_pk=59612751-8689-4b1e-…>

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Right-Wing Pair Can Be Charged For False Election Robocalls
by Gunnar Larson 17 Dec '24

17 Dec '24

Right-Wing Pair Can Be Charged For False Election Robocalls <https://www.law360.com/cybersecurity-privacy/articles/2274367?nl_pk=3dfd2fd…> By Danielle Ferguson A Michigan appellate panel has upheld, for the second time, criminal charges against two right-wing conspiracy theorists who led a misinformation campaign that targeted Black voters, finding that even under a narrowed test from the state's top court, the pair likely knew the robocalls shared false information and were related to voting procedures. 2 documents attached | Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/cybersecurity-privacy/articles/2274367?nl_pk=3dfd2fd…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/cybersecurity-privacy/articles/2274367?nl_pk=3dfd2fd…>

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Alaska Plea Nixed Due To Ex-Judge's Sexts With Prosecutor
by Gunnar Larson 17 Dec '24

17 Dec '24

Alaska Plea Nixed Due To Ex-Judge's Sexts With Prosecutor <https://www.law360.com/cannabis/articles/2274630?nl_pk=c844ee6a-f80e-4e60-b…> By Rachel Scharf A visiting judge agreed Monday to overturn an Alaska guilty plea that was negotiated by a federal prosecutor who sent nude photographs to former U.S. District Judge Joshua Kindred, the latest fallout from the disgraced jurist's sexual misconduct scandal. Order attached | Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/cannabis/articles/2274630?nl_pk=c844ee6a-f80e-4e60-b…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/cannabis/articles/2274630?nl_pk=c844ee6a-f80e-4e60-b…>

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NJ Panel Tosses Contempt Sanctions Against Lawyer
by Gunnar Larson 17 Dec '24

17 Dec '24

NJ Panel Tosses Contempt Sanctions Against Lawyer <https://www.law360.com/legalethics/articles/2274464?nl_pk=153d4a8a-6fb9-4a5…> By James Mills A New Jersey appellate panel on Monday vacated contempt sanctions imposed by a Bergen County judge on a Northern New Jersey-based lawyer in an estate case, saying the attorney's conduct wasn't enough of a disruption. Opinion attached | Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/legalethics/articles/2274464?nl_pk=153d4a8a-6fb9-4a5…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/legalethics/articles/2274464?nl_pk=153d4a8a-6fb9-4a5…>

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Chemical Co. Retirees Agree To End 401(k) Fee Suit Appeal
by Gunnar Larson 17 Dec '24

17 Dec '24

Chemical Co. Retirees Agree To End 401(k) Fee Suit Appeal <https://www.law360.com/delaware/articles/2274513?nl_pk=8f2e5a76-bb66-462b-a…> By Patrick Hoff Chemical company retirees who accused their former employer of unlawfully loading their 401(k) plan with costly investment options ended their bid to revive a class action, with the Third Circuit signing off on the dismissal. 2 documents attached | Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/delaware/articles/2274513?nl_pk=8f2e5a76-bb66-462b-a…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/delaware/articles/2274513?nl_pk=8f2e5a76-bb66-462b-a…>

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Gov't Approves £3.6B Royal Mail Sale To Czech Tycoon
by Gunnar Larson 17 Dec '24

17 Dec '24

Gov't Approves £3.6B Royal Mail Sale To Czech Tycoon <https://www.law360.com/mergersacquisitions/articles/2274189?nl_pk=a34c25b5-…> By Tom Fish A conglomerate controlled by Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský said Monday that its planned £3.6 billion ($4.5 billion) purchase of Royal Mail's parent has moved a step closer to delivery after the U.K. government approved it — with several conditions. Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/mergersacquisitions/articles/2274189?nl_pk=a34c25b5-…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/mergersacquisitions/articles/2274189?nl_pk=a34c25b5-…>

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Yodlee Judge 'Wrestling' With Invasion Of Privacy Question
by Gunnar Larson 17 Dec '24

17 Dec '24

Yodlee Judge 'Wrestling' With Invasion Of Privacy Question <https://www.law360.com/banking/articles/2274547?nl_pk=feb6bbba-7878-4d39-be…> By Bonnie Eslinger A California federal judge considering financial data aggregator Yodlee's bid to dismiss allegations it unlawfully collected user data said Monday that she is "wrestling" with whether the company's retention of users' bank credentialing information gave those users standing for an invasion of privacy claim. Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/banking/articles/2274547?nl_pk=feb6bbba-7878-4d39-be…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/banking/articles/2274547?nl_pk=feb6bbba-7878-4d39-be…>

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