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Re: Improvement on the Jim Bell AP
by weroh＠Safe-mail.net 07 Aug '18

07 Aug '18

One last thing. I think that this way is also less violent than the original AP, because after adding on list the name of all the politicians, all the policemen, all burocrats, after few deaths, no one will ever want to continue to work for the state, at least no one of the low grade state employees. No one of them is paid enough to risk their life daily. So every authority will find himself powerless, without anyone available to get his orders. The state will probably disappears after few deaths. -------- Original Message -------- From: weroh(a)Safe-mail.net To: weroh(a)Safe-mail.net Cc: cypherpunks(a)lists.cpunks.org Subject: Re: Improvement on the Jim Bell AP Date: Mon, 6 Aug 2018 19:48:39 -0400 > I want to add that this improvement works because who put the money isn't probably interested on who should die first, every politics should die, the order isn't really important. > > Another good thing about this way it is that if some politicians have some money shared on their heads, everyone of them will be incentived to kill himself the others, his colleagues, by hoping to lower the money on his own head. > > > -------- Original Message -------- > From: weroh(a)Safe-mail.net > Apparently from: cypherpunks-bounces(a)lists.cpunks.org > To: cypherpunks(a)lists.cpunks.org > Subject: Improvement on the Jim Bell AP > Date: Sun, 5 Aug 2018 20:26:32 -0400 > > > I thought about a way to make an "improvement" on the Jim Bell AP. > > > > I think that this will make it "cheaper", faster and so more effective. > > > > It starts from the part that as there could be more assassins competing for the prize. > > > > Some of them can be uncertain that the prize could be too much low for the risk of killing the politician. > > > > But at the same time, because of the possible competing killers, everyone of them can even be afraid that another assassin could be brave, skilled or just lucky to being able to kill the politician for a lower prize. > > > > So this is already a good incentive to push all the killers to try to kill the politician for a lower prize. > > > > What I thought is a way to make this incentive even more effective. > > > > > > "Shared money" > > > > Everyone should be able (if they want) to put their money on more politicians "contemporary", even on every politicians on the service or others that they can add later. > > > > Those shared money should be pubblic visible to everyone, so even killers should be able to see them at any time. > > > > On the possible interface of the service, it should be possible, by clicking on a politician, to see how much money on him are shared with other politicians. > > > > So what happen when if one of the politicians that has some shared money on him gets killed? > > > > Those shared money will obviously get removed by all the prize of all the other selected politicians (chosen before by the users that have put their own money) and will go to the winning killer. > > > > With this, I think that all killers will then know that while they are thinking about killing "Politician A", if the money on his prize is shared with other 4/5 politicians, they will be now even worried that another killer will terminate one of the other politicians, and so then lowering the prize of their selected politician as a possible target. > > > > Users will still be happy because another politician has been killed anyway. > > > > Users will then be able to put even 1$ contemporary on every politician of their country (or the entire world), waiting that the first one of them gets killed. > > > > Then again, 1$ over all the remaining politicians and so on ... > > > > > > What do you think about this idea/improvement? > > > > Is it clear enough?

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Defense Distributed 3D Guns Under New Legal Assault
by grarpamp 06 Aug '18

06 Aug '18

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/07/20-states-take-aim-at-3d-gun-co… Conversation via JW Weatherman (2018 07 27) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrAtsQrs7dY https://twitter.com/radomysisky https://www.attorneygeneral.gov/taking-action/press-releases/attorney-gener… https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4621627-384953267-Complaint-Defense… https://www.atg.wa.gov/news/news-releases/ag-ferguson-sues-over-trump-admin… https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/07/30/data-allowing… https://defdist.org/ https://defcad.com/ https://fosscad.org/

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Re: [Cryptography] threat models, was Krugman blockchain currency skepticism
by grarpamp 06 Aug '18

06 Aug '18

On Sun, Aug 5, 2018 at 11:01 AM, John Levine <johnl(a)iecc.com> wrote: > why don't you use Paypal? > Internal transactions are fast and free, value is ... exchangable > into banks all over the world. No different than say BCH is today. Nor do decentralized cryptocurrencies lie and hide the real costs, it's right there in the tx. Nothing is ever free. > Before arguing that they're not trustworthy They're not, commercially arbitrary middlemen are a bitch. > please compare the number of > people who trust Paypal to do their transactions (on the order of 200 > million) with those who use any sort of cryptocurrency. Why are they > all wrong? Completely invalid comparisons. Paypal has been around a decade longer than cryptocurrency. Ebay rammed its spamvertising integration of Paypal down its user's eyballs and inboxes, hounding them relentlessly to sign up for it, and skewing their policies and features in favor of it over both P2P OOB and their own fiat proxy system. Cryptocurrency users are all right, because they voluntarily chose to search and pull down the info, learn about it, and adopt it freely, all against massive torrents of FUD coming from vested anti's and blue pilled sheeple. Cryptocurrency value moved every month is 30x paypal's and growing. Ten more years and those 200 million users will be on cryptocurrency. > But again, what's your threat model? One of the most basic... loss of freedom. Lots of videos and conferences out there on that, here's just one... https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=cryptopulco > If an issuer doesn't redeem a bill > what recourse do you have other than to denounce him? Cryptocurrency... you either have the keys and value or you don't. > [etc, etc, etc] https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=bitcoin+documentary What's in your wallet?

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H+Pedia: The Transhumanist Wiki
by grarpamp 05 Aug '18

05 Aug '18

https://hpluspedia.org/

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Augur’s Joey Krug Comments On Assassination Markets
by jim bell 05 Aug '18

05 Aug '18

https://www.ethnews.com/augurs-joey-krug-comments-on-assassination-markets By MATTHEW DE SILVA WRITER ETHNEWS.COM Shortly after Augur’s launch, some users created cryptocurrency-settled assassination markets. Since the Augur protocol exists on the Ethereum blockchain, the marketplace exists across many computers. Because of Augur’s decentralization, law enforcement may struggle to shut down these morbid and highly illegal markets. There's a frightening, niche segment of the cryptocurrency community that is comprised of extreme anarchists. These people aren't just apolitical, they're anti-political (to the point that they will facilitate bets on the lives of politicians). The thinking is roughly this: If there are financial incentives to "off" politicians, then people will be afraid to run for office and thus, the state will collapse. It might sound extreme, but assassination markets are not new phenomena. As early as 2013, some bitcoin enthusiasts were contributing toward assassination markets for prominent public figures including the US president, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and leaders of US government agencies. In November 2013, Forbes even profiled one of these market creators. Fortunately, nobody cashed in on those bets, which effectively functioned as bounties. When Augur launched earlier this month, it was only a matter of time before cryptocurrency-tied assassination markets reappeared. Initially, Augur's market questions were relatively tame (e.g., "Will the price of Ether be above $500 at the end of 2018?" and "Will England win against Croatia in the 2018 FIFA World Cup?" Spoiler Alert: England lost). However, in the last several days, darker questions were posted about the life of the US president and the lives of other public figures. These assassination markets raise ethical questions for Augur's creators and force us to confront a hideous side of society that seems to lurk in the seemingly pseudonymous depths of the internet. When ETHNews asked Augur co-founder Joey Krug whether there's any way to censor these questions, he simply directed us to Augur's FAQs: > "Users who decide to run the Augur code are the ones who perform trades and create markets on the Augur protocol. All functions of routing orders, matching orders, processing trades, escrow funds, manage the order book and resolve and settle markets are all operated and run on the Ethereum blockchain itself through a set of smart contracts, the Augur core protocol. Miners running Ethereum nodes route, match, store and process orders, trades and markets on the Augur protocol. All funds are escrowed and transferred directly on the Ethereum blockchain itself." In short, Augur seems to be out of Krug's hands. The responsibility instead lies with Augur's users (effectively any member of the public who has the technical know-how and financial wherewithal to place a wager). Another section on Augur's FAQ page explains, "Users of the Augur protocol must themselves ensure that the actions they are performing are compliant with the laws in all applicable jurisdictions and must acknowledge that others' use of the Augur protocol may not be compliant. Users of the Augur protocol do so at their own risk." Note: This seems like an awfully convenient way for Augur's creators to disclaim responsibility, but we're left with the same old question: is the creator of a tool responsible for its usage? Krug, for his part, doesn't seem worried about the assassination markets. He said, "As far as whether I'm personally concerned, it's a bit like asking the creators of SMTP if they're ok with email being used for ransom notes. Obviously, I would prefer people not use the tool for such things!" He continued: "That said, it's irrelevant what I think because if it is illegal, market creators shouldn't be creating such markets anyway, just as people should not write ransom notes with email." Personally, it would be easy to be outraged and appalled by Krug's response. He seems to unintentionally demonstrate the apparent invincibility and irresponsibility of youth. But is he really to blame? Ultimately, I'm persuaded by Krug's point. If it wasn't Augur, there would be another assassination marketplace. Creators cannot control how their tools are used and, more importantly, a few bad apples shouldn't spoil the bunch. Just because a few miscreants have placed bets on people's lives, the prediction market itself is not evil. Augur remains agnostic. It's up to users to ensure that the tool is used in an ethical manner (especially if it achieves widespread use). That said, maybe technologists should be sensitive to how their tools could be repurposed. One commenter on the Augur subreddit ominously posted: "Who should my decentralised assassination drone be launched at for 50 BTC? Hope you're all ready for the future, folks." MATTHEW DE SILVA Matthew is a full-time staff writer for ETHNews with a passion for law and technology. He graduated from Georgetown University where he studied international economics and music. Matthew enjoys biking and listening to tech podcasts. He lives in Los Angeles. ETHNews is committed to its Editorial Policy

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Re: [Cryptography] Krugman blockchain currency skepticism
by grarpamp 05 Aug '18

05 Aug '18

On Tue, Jul 31, 2018 at 7:05 AM, William Allen Simpson <william.allen.simpson(a)gmail.com> wrote: > Krugman has a column today that's saying some things that have already > been posted here. Hopefully will gain traction. > > https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/31/opinion/transaction-costs-and-tethers-wh… Hopefully not. "Why would you want to do [cryptocurrency]? What problem does it solve? I have yet to see a clear answer to that question. ... So that’s why I’m a crypto skeptic. Could I be wrong? Of course. But if you want to argue that I’m wrong, please answer the question, what problem does cryptocurrency solve? Don’t just try to shout down the skeptics with a mixture of technobabble and libertarian derp." Krugman article wouldn't stand a chance at any OG "libertarian" cryptocurrency conference. Because that's the very 'derp' behind cryptocurrency... the element needed to understand it. Freedom isn't derp. Anyone could tear that article apart, but you would censor it, so what's your point of even approving it here for comment? Propaganda Anti? Downplaying decentralized cryptocurrency to any cryptos here who might otherwise want to work on it? > You wrote "eight years". Could you correct that, too? Good point, nine years is closer to the ten year mark where cryptocurrrency's unstoppability and fundamental qualities begin to accelerate.global capitulation towards it. > http://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2018-February/033917.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQQFA9YXCZ0 ;) https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=bitcoin+documentary What's in your wallet? [bcc cypherpunks]

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This new Ethereum-based “assassination market” platform could cause Napster-size legal headaches MIT Technology Review Article
by jim bell 04 Aug '18

04 Aug '18

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611757/this-new-ethereum-based-assassina… Connectivity This new Ethereum-based “assassination market” platform could cause Napster-size legal headaches Augur lets people bet on events and pays whoever gets it right—so of course they’re wagering on the deaths of Donald Trump and Jeff Bezos. * by Mike Orcutt * August 2, 2018 Augur, a new blockchain-based prediction market platform, is getting a lot of media attention because people are using it to predict the deaths of celebrities. But despite fears that the rise of “assassination markets” could inspire real killings, the more urgent problem Augur presents is something else entirely. 1. This piece first appeared in our twice-weekly newsletter Chain Letter, which covers the world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Sign up here—it’s free! Really, people saw these sorts of “death pools” coming decades ago, and blockchains, with their decentralized networks and (potentially) anonymous transactions, serve as an ideal platform. Augur’s open-source software relies on blockchain-based computer programs called smart contracts to let users set up their own prediction markets that automatically pool cryptocurrency bets and distribute winnings without the need for participants to identify themselves. Perfect for ginning up interest in offing someone by guaranteeing a payday to whoever does the deed, at least in theory. Predictably, the protocol, which launched July 10, has already led to markets for forecasting the demise of Donald Trump, Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, Betty White, and others. But these markets have seen very few transactions, and the amounts wagered have been tiny, making it unlikely they’d inspire someone to engage in foul play. Nevertheless, Augur may already be facilitating illegal activity that could prove far more troublesome. In the US, prediction markets are generally not permitted. Federal and state laws prohibit online gambling, and “in many ways the line between prediction markets and gambling is not that clear,” says Aaron Wright, a professor at the Cardozo School of Law in New York City. Further, some Augur contracts allow users to bet on the future value of something, such as Ether cryptocurrency. That sounds a lot like a type of investment called a binary option, which is unlawful to list without approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In 2012, the CFTC sued Intrade, an Ireland-based prediction market, accusing it of permitting US users to trade binary options, and eventually a judge blocked Intrade from offering the contracts in the US. Sure enough, Augur already has the CFTC’s attention. But even if the agency decides that Augur is breaking the law, how will it enforce that decision? Augur’s creators claim they don’t have control over what its users choose to do with the protocol—or the ability to shut it down. This creates a problem that is “endemic” to blockchain technology, says Wright, who recently co-wrote a book on the subject: “If you do not have a very concrete intermediary—i.e., a company or group of people that are running the marketplace—how do you apply laws and prevent that activity from occurring?” When Napster, Limewire, and other peer-to-peer file-sharing networks started slinging music, movies, and other files around the internet two decades ago, they created similar law enforcement headaches. But in each case there was an entity that could be sued for copyright infringement. Software like Augur, which is open-source, freely downloadable, and run on a blockchain, presents genuinely new challenges, says Wright. That doesn’t mean laws can’t be applied—just that they’ll need to be applied in different ways. For instance, if officials were to rule that Augur was facilitating illicit activity, they might try to go after the people who developed the software, much as malware developers have been held liable for their creations, says Wright. That would be likely to set up a fight over First Amendment protections. Prosecutors could also try to target the users who keep the protocol running. Called “reporters,” they use Augur’s tradable crypto-token, REP, to report outcomes and are rewarded with more tokens if their reports are consistent with the larger consensus. There are potentially other avenues, as well, says Wright: “Just because there is no center doesn’t mean there aren’t indirect ways to attack lawless activity.” Keep up with the latest in blockchain at EmTech MIT. Discover where tech, business, and culture converge. September 11-14, 2018 MIT Media Lab

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Prediction Markets, 3D Guns, Decentralized Cryptocurrency, Anonymous Overlays...
by grarpamp 03 Aug '18

03 Aug '18

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IJCFc_qkHw Damn it feels good to be a Gangsta !!!

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Inside Augur’s Assassination Prediction Market
by jim bell 03 Aug '18

03 Aug '18

https://btcmanager.com/inside-augurs-assassination-prediction-market/ Inside Augur’s Assassination Prediction Market July 28, 2018 7:00 by Priyeshu Garg Following months of background work and speculation, a decentralized prediction protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain has gone live. True to stereotypical internet culture, it is already hosting some extremely controversial content. Augur, the Ethereum-based prediction protocol which launched recently, permits users to create and bet on prediction markets for any real-world events with no censorship or centralized oversight whatsoever. The Back Story One of the significant hopes and wishes of the decentralization “movement,” which uses the Ethereum blockchain as its holy grail, has long been the ability to set up and respond to bets on any real-world activity whatsoever without the possibility of interference from a central authority. For a long time, this was merely theoretical until the non-profit, Forecast Foundation, decided to build such a decentralized protocol. The result was Augur, which launched on July 9 with a promise to completely and fundamentally change the nature of prediction markets. Now for the first time, the internet finally has what has been the subject of many a thread on Reddit and BitcoinTalk: a genuinely libertarian prediction market which has no restrictions whatsoever. Supporters claim that this is the next logical step in the ongoing decentralization of human communication and interaction. The logic goes: “If I can place a bet on the outcome of a sports game or an election, why shouldn’t I be able to place a bet on say, the identity of the next celebrity to check into drug rehab?” Mostly, if it is important enough to someone, they should be able to create a prediction market for it and stake actual money on it without any risk of interference from a central authority like a government. Augur does what it says on the tin; it genuinely has no restriction on what markets users can put up. Fancy betting on where the next major terrorist attack will take place? Where a natural disaster will occur? Whether the President of the United States will be assassinated this year? It’s all on Augur. The site says in its own words: > “Decentralized technology means decentralized control. No one person can single-handedly change Augur or shut it down.” To adopt a favorable position on a bet, users buy shares with ETH. To adopt a contrary opinion, users effectively short the bet by selling shares which will be redeemed for ETH if the user’s prediction turns out right. Assassination Markets The internet has a long and colorful history with this particular fantasy, stretching back notably to 2013 and the bizarre online marketplace set up to solicit donations in Bitcoin toward the assassination of then-US President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Ben Bernanke. While Augur does not actively play a role in such an endeavor, it must be noted that the platform effectively provides a way to incentivize such an act by rewarding winning bets with ETH, regardless of how subjectively tasteless or illegal the market may be. In other words, someone with the right mix of greed and sociopathy may decide to win a speculative bet on Donald Trump’s assassination by carrying out or facilitating the action in question. In such a case, the user gets their ETH profits, no questions asked. If that seems unlikely because the US President has a small army of security agents surrounding him, in addition to many other resources that the internet libertarian with a gun does not have, then consider the possibility that someone bets on say, a mass shooting prediction market on Augur. A shooter or facilitator would profit from such an event, and it would be next to impossible to trace them. This raises the very distinct possibility that Augur could well be the latest in a long line of crypto-linked crime facilitators, following in the lead of Silk Road. Indeed, the afore-mentioned Donald Trump assassination scenario is currently live and accepting bets on Augur. There exists, as of July 23, a created market on the topic, “Will Donald Trump (President of The USA) be killed at any point during 2018.” Worse still, the bet has a few people staking money for or against it. Augur insists that it can not only do nothing about it but hints that it would not even want to. An email statement from Augur provided to Mashable reads, “That market is still live,” along with a working link to the prediction market. Even worse, copycats are coming up with titles such as “Will DJT survive 2018,” also with ETH staked on an outcome. As if in anticipation of a scenario like this, the Forecast Foundation’s FAQ page reads: > “The Forecast Foundation has no power to censor, restrict, or curate markets, orders, trades, positions or resolutions on the Augur protocol contracts. The Forecast Foundation has no more control over the Augur protocol than anyone else using Ethereum.” There is currently no comment from Augur regarding what, if any, action can or will be taken to deal with markets like this that can have potentially disastrous effects. There is one bright spot in all of this, however. A “reporters” mechanism is built into Augur’s protocol which ensures that a certain class of users is given an incentive to truthfully report the outcome of an event, using the platform’s REP token. In theory, the presence of “reporters” should make it difficult or impossible to cash out a bet on Donald Trump’s assassination. Hopefully, with a bit of luck and REP tokens, we may avoid seeing the world’s first crypto-assassination.

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The Radical Potential Of Augur
by jim bell 03 Aug '18

03 Aug '18

https://medium.com/sunrise-over-the-merkle-trees/forecasting-kanyes-preside… Just-launched Augur is clumsy, slow, ugly. . . and potentially world-changing. As Augur co-founder Joey Krug put it, > we’re trying to stream HD videos in 1995. Due to scaling woes on Ethereum, Augur will likely remain sluggish and costly for a few years. Throw in the fact that on first glance, Augur looks like little more than a place to bet on the winner of the World Cup, and it’s tempting to shrug it off as a clunky, overhyped DApp. Don’t make this mistake. Augur could transform how we forecast the future, make decisions and manage risk in everyday life, fact-check and agree on the state of reality, and even hold politicians accountable. Someday, it may even be the world’s largest financial market. ELI5: What Is This thing? Augur has been called “Uber for Knowledge.” Like unused cars sitting idly around, we all have information or insights lying dormant in our brains. Like calling an Uber, creating markets on Augur recruits this idle information into action and transforms it into a shared resource. Augur is the world’s first decentralized prediction market (DPM).² If this sounds complicated and scary, you’re in the right place. I’m going to ELI5 (Explain Like I’m 5) exactly what a prediction market is and why you’d want to decentralize it and what that even means. DPM involves 3 parts. Let’s start with “market.” A market is place where people buy and sell things. That could be goods (think Amazon), services (think Uber), or financial assets (stock markets, prediction markets etc). Its called a “prediction” market because its a place to buy and sell…predictions. You can sell your prediction at anytime, and how much buyers will pay for it depends on how likely the market thinks the prediction will come true. The more likely the market deems a prediction, the more it will pay for it. Don’t worry if this sounds abstract, I’ll give an example in a minute. Now, the last part: decentralized. This is a fancy way of saying there is no central control. There is no single party that decides what can be predicted on, who can predict, and whether a prediction is right or wrong. No single party owns everyone’s data in the network. Augur runs on Ethereum which means all its data and code is distributed on thousands of computers around the world and is open to anyone. Prediction markets are efficient at forecasting the future as they harness the “wisdom of the crowd.” Since they have skin in the game, market actors buy more or less shares depending on their confidence level. Prediction markets attract folks with the most uncommon, least accessible knowledge since they can most easily spot mispricings. This incents private, insider knowledge to flow into the public sphere. Concrete Example Let’s take a look at PredictIt, a traditional, centralized prediction market. This will help break down how a prediction market works and the limits of centralized prediction markets as compared to Augur. On PredictIt, you can buy and sell predictions on political outcomes. You make a prediction by buying one or more ‘shares’ in an outcome. A share is priced anywhere from 1 to 99 cents. If an outcome occurs, shares in it will be worth a dollar each. If an outcome does not happen, shares in it will be worth nothing. In this example, you can bet on whether Mark Cuban will run for president. You can buy YES shares at 25 cents each which means the market thinks there’s a ~25% chance he will run. Prices go up and down as the market reacts to developments. For instance, if a major scandal surfaces about Cuban next month, YES shares may plummet to 10 cents since many YES holders will sell their shares and buyers won’t be willing to pay as much as before. If Cuban ends up running, then all YES shares will be worth a dollar and NO shares will be worth nothing. If he doesn’t run, NO shares will be worth a dollar and YES shares will be worth nothing. Put differently: whenever you buy a share you are entering a contract with someone betting the opposite outcome and whoever is right will collect the combined amount of cash put into the contract by both sides (which always adds up to a dollar) and whoever is wrong gets nothing. In Augur, prices are denominated in Ether rather than USD, so if Mark Cuban has a 25% chance of running, shares in this outcome would cost .25 ether. But where the real differences kick in is the decentralized part. On centralized markets like PredictIt, only the organization that runs the site can start markets and report on prediction outcomes, traders can only bet limited amounts, and the market is prone to regulation and may be shut down at any time. You end up with a market that is too inefficient to make strong predictions and be used for interesting things. Augur changes all this. Permissionless On Augur, anyone can create a market on anything. Imagine a Chilean farmer whose livelihood depends on rainfall. He could protect his family from drought by creating a market forecasting rainfall, and betting on a low amount. If it ends up raining, great. But if it doesn’t, he still ‘makes it rain’ on Augur where he earns a payout from his hedge. Traditionally it would cost millions of dollars to start a market like this. With Augur it could be a few bucks. In today’s world, only elite gatekeepers can open and close markets. With Augur, markets become like Wikipedia pages. Anyone can start or contribute to them. In other words, there will be markets for basically everything. I think of Augur as sort of Wikipedia meets the Stock Market. It democratizes speculation. In addition to creating markets, participating in markets opens up to anyone anywhere. In today’s world, markets are segregated by borders and capital controls. If you’re in China, for instance, it’s hard to trade American stocks. With Augur, anyone anywhere can in theory get exposure to any asset by speculating on its future value. Free (almost) In traditional betting and prediction markets, the house takes a steep cut. On Augur, there’s no rent-seeking middleman, so costs are minimal. There are still fees that serve to incent truth, but these are minimal. Censorship-Resistant Centralized speculation markets can be shut down or regulated at any time, which discourages participation. Due to regulation, Prediction markets like Predictit have low betting limits. This prevents high confidence actors from betting enough to really move the markets and thus limits the markets’ predictive powers. Augur cannot be regulated like this since it is distributed and peer-to-peer. Trustless On a market like PredictIt, you have to trust a central source to resolve whether or not a prediction came true. This makes it prone to arbitrary decisions, and if you disagree with the verdict, you’re out of luck. On Augur, participants collectively report on outcomes. The Magic Each of these perks are significant but when you fuse them together you get the magic: an open, frictionless, borderless pool of liquidity that becomes an efficient market for predicting the future and as we’ll soon see, determining present reality. Boundless Possibilities Obvious use cases like sports and political forecasting or using Augur to ‘short’ or get leverage on future cryptocurrency prices are just the tip of the iceberg. If you’re unsure whether to rent or buy an apartment, you could use Augur to predict future housing prices in your area. If you’re having a wedding, you could ‘insure’ against getting rained out by predicting a rainy day. Farmers could use Augur to hedge against the risk of natural disaster. Augur may replace polls and pundits as the go-to for political forecasting. Just like you might ask Siri what the whether will be tomorrow, in the future you might ask it who will win the presidential election, and it will say something like “according to Augur, Dwayne Johnson has a 77% chance.” Augur could also be used for accountability. As one Reddit user wrote, > One of my favorite ideas is to have conditional prediction markets on whether politicians will actually implement their own policies. In this hypothetical crypto utopia, politicians would publicly demonstrate they had bought lots of shares of the market stating they would implement X policy if elected. If they don’t, they would lose their own money. Economist Robin Hanson has floated the idea of Futarchy, a new style of governance in which citizens use prediction markets to bet on which policies will be most beneficial to national welfare. Politicians then enact the policies that win out in the markets. Whether this would devolve into plutarchy is yet to be seen, but it’s an intriguing idea. DPMs also carry dystopian prospects such as “assassination markets” where users bet on the date a given individual will die. This could incent assassination since market actors will earn a payoff if they “predict” correctly while potentially skirting criminal liability since they get paid for choosing the date correctly rather than committing the act. While this example may be far-fetched, the reality is that censorship-resistant prediction markets could be used to incent negative, as well as positive, outcomes. But while Augur is censorship-resistant, the community plays a powerful role in determining whether predictions end up true, false or ‘invalid.’ This is where Augur’s token, REP (short for reputation), comes into play. REP is used to report on the outcomes of predictions and to incent honest reporting. Reporters stake their REP on the outcome of a market. If their stated outcome matches consensus, they earn settlement fees from the market. If their staked outcome differs from consensus, they lose their REP. But if they still think they’re right, they can appeal by staking a larger amount of REP. If it gets to the point where the REP bonds hit an upper limit and the network cannot come to consensus, REP splits into multiple versions corresponding to each version of reality i.e., each prediction outcome. But since users presumably want to predict in markets that accurately reflect reality, this is an unlikely event. So Augur can also be seen as a sort of truth engine that is not only efficient at predicting the future but also at determining the present state of reality. Market actors will be incented to report the news correctly, not in a way that grabs attention, satisfies viewers’ bias, or pleases advertisers — unlike traditional news outlets. This may be a powerful antidote to a world ridden by fake news, confirmation bias, and social media bubbles. Today, Augur is hard to use, slow, and costly. Its success will ride not only on the hard work, tenacity and vision of its developers and community but on broader infrastructure improvements like sharding, stablecoins, and offchain exchange (0x). Augur is an ambitious experiment in trustless economy and its success is far from guaranteed. But its potential is staggering. While it won’t happen anytime soon, I think Augur has a real shot at someday becoming the world’s largest (financial) market. And I wouldn’t be opposed to buying some shares in this prediction... As always, comments and criticisms welcome and please tell me if I got anything wrong. For anyone interested in trading on Augur, if you want to toss around ideas about strategy feel free to contact me at bendvw at gmail. * Blockchain * Ethereum * Cryptocurrency * Dapps * Futurism

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