February 2025 - cypherpunks - lists.cpunks.org

'Sloppy' Work Hurts Lab's $20.6M Insurance Suit, Judge Says
by Gunnar Larson 05 Feb '25

05 Feb '25

'Sloppy' Work Hurts Lab's $20.6M Insurance Suit, Judge Says <https://www.law360.com/insurance/articles/2292981?nl_pk=347c5954-47a8-495c-…> By Brian Steele A Connecticut federal judge said Tuesday that a contract lawsuit against insurer Aetna Inc. and its owner CVS Health Corp., seeking about $20.6 million in payment for laboratory services, seems to "suffer" from the fact that the plaintiff filed dozens of similar cases in short order. 3 documents attached | Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/insurance/articles/2292981?nl_pk=347c5954-47a8-495c-…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/insurance/articles/2292981?nl_pk=347c5954-47a8-495c-…>

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Greenpeace - Voyage to Save the Whales - Short Version
by Gunnar Larson 05 Feb '25

05 Feb '25

https://media.greenpeace.org/archive/Voyage-to-Save-the-Whales---Short-Vers… Voyage to Save the Whales - Short Version Footage of Greenpeace's first campaigns to halt the hunting of whales by the Soviet whaling fleet in 1975 and 1976. Includes dramatic footage of Greenpeace activists placing themselves in the path of harpoons. Restrictions For licensing this film please contact Omni Films. For clip sales contact Greenpeace International.

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Coinbase Taps BigLaw Firms In Bid To End Crypto 'Debanking'
by Gunnar Larson 05 Feb '25

05 Feb '25

Coinbase Taps BigLaw Firms In Bid To End Crypto 'Debanking' <https://www.law360.com/fintech/articles/2292838?nl_pk=31322029-63eb-4d40-ac…> By Aislinn Keely Crypto exchange Coinbase urged regulators Tuesday to clarify that banks can offer crypto custody and execution services, submitting a letter featuring a report from three BigLaw firms asserting that federal laws and regulations already allow banks to wade further into digital asset activities. Letter attached | Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/fintech/articles/2292838?nl_pk=31322029-63eb-4d40-ac…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/fintech/articles/2292838?nl_pk=31322029-63eb-4d40-ac…>

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How many names are on the Stanley Cup? There are currently 2,394 individuals who are engraved on the Cup.
by Gunnar Larson 04 Feb '25

04 Feb '25

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DFojpCqMgL2/?igsh=OGpkbnc1ZjFjcmsx How many names are on the Stanley Cup? There are currently 2,394 individuals who are engraved on the Cup. https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/sports/nhl/stanley-cup-height-weight-names-ma… Not every name that has ever been engraved is on the current version, though. The Cup is made up of five barrel rings that get replaced once the bottom one gets filled up. When a new ring is needed, the top one is removed and the new one moves to the bottom. The newest barrel ring was added when the Washington Capitals won the 2018 Stanley Cup. To make room, the top band featuring champions from the 1953-54 Detroit Red Wings to the 1964-65 Montreal Canadiens was removed. It was the third band to be retired and shipped to the Hockey Hall of Fame. Counting retired bands, 3,385 individuals have been engraved onto the Cup. The Stanley Cup currently has over 2,300 names engraved on it. However, the total number of names that have ever been engraved on the cup is over 3,400. Explanation The number of names on the Stanley Cup changes because the cup is made up of barrel rings that are replaced when the bottom ring fills up. The format and location of the engravings have changed over the years. The names of the team and players who win the Stanley Cup are engraved on the cup each season. To be eligible to have their name engraved on the cup, a player must have appeared in at least one Stanley Cup Final game or 41 regular-season games with a team.

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Vyvanse: NYAG Call for Investigation (B12)
by Gunnar Larson 04 Feb '25

04 Feb '25

Dear Madam Attorney General James: Today xNY.io - Bank.org repecfully recommends an independent investigation into NYDFS Superintendent Harris' potential rigging of New York State’s Vyvanse marketplace (B12). xNY.io - Bank.org has information from Australia that seemingly confirms our claim. See here: Marianne Williamson LIVE in Melbourne, Australia | July 2022: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10GI5UDN7PVLcShqj0S_N7E28lpC-vkeC/view?usp=… Novo Nordisk's Obesity Drug Study Allegedly Duped Investors <https://www.law360.com/capitalmarkets/articles/2289304?nl_pk=35f19b02-1b5d-…> By Dorothy Atkins Novo Nordisk was hit with a proposed securities class action in New Jersey federal court Friday, accusing the drugmaker of duping investors about its new weight loss drug CagriSema by failing to disclose that obesity patients were taking different dosages in a clinical study, which allegedly skewed results. Complaint attached | Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/capitalmarkets/articles/2289304?nl_pk=35f19b02-1b5d-…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/capitalmarkets/articles/2289304?nl_pk=35f19b02-1b5d-…> Furthermore, I am concerned that Ms. Harris' likley role in rigging New York State’s Vyvanse marketplace (B12) shares themes with Novo Nordisk that could exasterbate insurance fraud claims at NYAG. Kindly confirm if NYAG will open a Vyvanse marketplace rigginging investigation (B12) by February 12, 2025. Warm regards, Gunnar Larson

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Fwd: If DeepSeek wiped out $1 trillion of public tech company value—Just watch what happens to private AI company valua…
by Gunnar Larson 04 Feb '25

04 Feb '25

---------- Forwarded message --------- From: The Cryptonite Weekly Rap <cryptoniteventures(a)substack.com> Date: Sat, Feb 1, 2025, 10:24 AM Subject: If DeepSeek wiped out $1 trillion of public tech company value—Just watch what happens to private AI company valua… To: <g(a)xny.io> Who will end up holding the bag of AI stocks when this market pops? ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ Forwarded this email? Subscribe here <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9jcnlwdG9uaXRldmVudHVyZXM…> for more <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9jcnlwdG9uaXRldmVudHVyZXM…> If DeepSeek wiped out $1 trillion of public tech company value—Just watch what happens to private AI company valuations… <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1665481&post_id=156236200…> Anthony Perkins <https://substack.com/@anthonybperkins> and The Cryptonite Weekly Rap <https://substack.com/@cryptoniteventures> Feb 1 ∙ Preview <https://substack.com/@anthonybperkins> <https://substack.com/@cryptoniteventures> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1665481&post_id=156236200…> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1665481&post_id=156236200…> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1665481&post_id=156236200…> <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9vcGVuLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbS9…> READ IN APP <https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptoniteventures/p/if-deepseek-wiped-out-1-…> <https://substack.com/redirect/0564c397-d4e8-4be4-bcb3-5a66fa26ad66?j=eyJ1Ij…> *Chinese panda street art.* Who will end up holding the bag of AI stocks when this market pops? During the Internet bubble era (1993-2023), we created $5 trillion of new wealth and then destroyed it <https://substack.com/redirect/a5bd1d7d-a778-4ea9-bf84-dd3c23e89548?j=eyJ1Ij…>. Driven by 200+ Internet companies that should never have gone public (or got funding at all), NASDAQ skyrocketed to 5,048 by March 10, 2000, blew up, and then punishingly twirled down over a two-and-a-half year period and bottom-out at 1,114 on October 9, 2002. Before the pop, the VCs who bet early on the Internet were able to push their portfolio companies' stock out into the public markets largely into the hands of overly whooped-up retail buyers. Between September 1999 and July 2000, VC firms like Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia Capital and their networks of angels cashed out approximately $43 billion to the public markets <https://substack.com/redirect/0b5264cf-8c10-4fc6-a6dd-4ad2a43c26e3?j=eyJ1Ij…> (when a $billion was BIG money💰!)—twice the return rates of the no so bad two previous years—and claimed big wins to their limited partner investors. In retrospect, the VCs won big, and the retail investors were caught holding the bag <https://substack.com/redirect/0b5264cf-8c10-4fc6-a6dd-4ad2a43c26e3?j=eyJ1Ij…> . Nvidia's half-a-trillion-dollar market cap drop last Monday and the other BigTech stock carnage was an early warning signal that tech companies, both public and private, are overvalued. Public and private stocks and cryptos markets have been over-inflated by the Trump Pump and AI hype. It all begs the question—Who is going to be holding the stock bubble bag this time around? The VCs or the overly enthusiastic retail investors. ------------------------------ [image: Cryptonite's predictions for 2025—Short Google, Nvidia, & OpenAI?, the Elon/Zuck alliance, Robotaxis takeover, IPOs up...] <https://substack.com/redirect/b79f76c0-a89e-467c-88c0-cea471718f10?j=eyJ1Ij…> Cryptonite's predictions for 2025—Short Google, Nvidia, & OpenAI?, the Elon/Zuck alliance, Robotaxis takeover, IPOs up... <https://substack.com/redirect/b79f76c0-a89e-467c-88c0-cea471718f10?j=eyJ1Ij…> The Cryptonite Weekly Rap <https://substack.com/profile/146561965-the-cryptonite-weekly-rap> and Anthony Perkins <https://substack.com/profile/1338763-anthony-perkins> · Jan 6 Read full story <https://substack.com/redirect/b79f76c0-a89e-467c-88c0-cea471718f10?j=eyJ1Ij…> Nvidia’s plunge *In our predictions for 2025, we stated that tech stocks, especially AI-related public and private companies, are overvalued and ripe for decompression in price. In 2025, we see a couple of dozen premium IPOs getting out the door, coupled with a brewing M&A frenzy and consolidation of first-generation AI companies. To support our prediction, we suggested that both Nvidia and OpenAI might be good 'shorts.' (We use that word figuratively as we are not stock jockeys by trade). On January 6, the date we posted our predictions, NVDA was trading at $152, and since has dropped to as low as $114 in just the last three weeks…so we are just saying. 🤷🏻‍♀️ * ------------------------------ One of the biggest differences between the Internet and AI stock bubbles at this moment in history is that 90%+ of the AI companies are still private. During the Web1 bubble, 217 'dot-com' companies had already gone public. If our overvaluation premise is true, then it will be interesting/entertaining to see how the VCs handle this predicament. In their ideal world, public tech investor jitters settle, and they start pumping their portfolio of AI companies out the public door like it was in 1999. *Tip for VCs: When you are up early doing your calisthenics and pounding your blueberry + whey protein smoothies, blast this epic Prince tune, 1999, on your headset to keep psyched up. Even *Christian <https://substack.com/redirect/c1df983f-0b22-4cea-bcb4-5f73d301704a?j=eyJ1Ij…>*McCaffrey <https://substack.com/redirect/c1df983f-0b22-4cea-bcb4-5f73d301704a?j=eyJ1Ij…> would have a tough time trying to blow through the tiny window that sits in front of you. * <https://substack.com/redirect/a3fbd3b5-99ad-46ec-8f90-235499b95852?j=eyJ1Ij…> “Cause they say 2000, zero-zero, party over, oops, out of time So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1999!” —Prince from his hit 1999—God bless him—We appreciate the memories. The book my brother Michael and I wrote, called *The Internet Bubble <https://substack.com/redirect/1adf0823-3527-476d-b9bf-0f5643786c9a?j=eyJ1Ij…>: Inside the Overvalued World of High-Tech Stocks,' was *published by HarperBusiness on November 1, 1999, when NASDAQ was at 2,970. The tech-heavy NASDAQ kept rising to its height of 5,048 on March 10, 2000, so we didn't look so bright for the six months before the pop.😅😅 The interesting thing to note is of the over 50 top VCs (e.g., Don Valentine, Tom Perkins, and Bill Gurly) and Internet entrepreneurs (e.g., Jeff Bezos, Yahoo founder Jerry Yang, and Internet browser inventor Marc Andreessen), we interviewed for the book they ALL acknowledged that Internet stock prices were out of control and not sustainable. Almost none of the Internet stocks were making money, and a high percentage didn't even have revenues. But as one VC admitted at the time, ‘Are these valuations rational? Not at all. But we either sit on the sidelines and watch everyone else make money or jump in and make money too while the market is hot.’ A top technology investment banker shrugged at the time, saying it is their 'job to put the IPOs on the stoop and see if the dogs will eat it.’ <https://substack.com/redirect/290aac7d-1eae-4bb2-a8e3-26ce0f150045?j=eyJ1Ij…> *The 15 most highly valued private AI companies with venture capital investors. Cryptonite's paid members can see the rest of the list and more data by clicking the link at the very bottom of this post.* What’s is in a value? *Nvidia’s total market value-to-sales ratio (with its stock at $120) is 50x, Apple’s is 8.2x, Meta’s is 11.1x, Intel’s in 1.5.x, and Qualcomm’s is 4.9x.🤔 We couldn’t find reliable sales numbers for the private AI companies in our table, but the question is—Is it possible for each venture-backed AI company to achieve the required revenues and earnings over the next couple of years to support their current VC valuation?* *We are not so sure.* The primary point of this post is to widely broadcast that since the DeepSeek story slapped Silicon Valley back to reality, we don't believe there is a single high-rolling, AI-betting VC on this planet that isn't pacing their luxury second home floors on Kona or in Montana somewhere feeling powerless. They have been boasting about the rise in valuation of their AI portfolio companies to their Limited Partners for the last two to three years now. The new reality is that AI VCs may have invested too much money at too high valuations, and their minds are spinning. The only option, before the rest of the world figures out what they now know, is to sell, baby, sell! The problem is that the public markets are too overvalued to open up the IPO doors just yet, and BigTech company buyers know what the VCs know, so they ain't going to buy any GenAI startup at the top. <https://substack.com/redirect/91885298-3f2a-4d62-8d5a-86b837a04899?j=eyJ1Ij…> *‘It's going to be an intense year, so buckle up. We've got a lot to do. I'm excited about it,’ says Zuck to the Meta tribe.* *What Zuck thinks about DeepSeek* *Question: Thoughts on DeepSeek and how Meta should respond or pivot its infrastructure spend to set itself up for success?* *Zuck: DeepSeek had a few pretty novel infrastructure optimization advances, which, fortunately, they published, so we can not only observe what they did, but we can read about it and implement it, so that'll benefit us. It's always interesting when there's someone who does something better than you, and that motivates me to make sure we're on it.* *—Question from an all-hands Meta employee meeting on Thursday that was leaked and pissed-off Zuck.*😤 *‘Everything I say leaks. And it sucks, right <https://substack.com/redirect/10129b9a-15af-41bc-9e49-0352cd8a68e9?j=eyJ1Ij…>?’* DeepSeek and the Open Source AI model DeepSeek <https://substack.com/redirect/326226bf-be73-4dcd-a689-35c9f38d007b?j=eyJ1Ij…>, the Chinese AI startup that has been causing all the stock market commotion, was founded in May of 2023 by hedge fund manager Liang Wenfeng <https://substack.com/redirect/501daa37-3df1-43d5-9c68-241efdd8c50e?j=eyJ1Ij…>. Mr. Wenfeng is also the founder of High-Flyer <https://substack.com/redirect/501daa37-3df1-43d5-9c68-241efdd8c50e?j=eyJ1Ij…>, one of China's top quantitative hedge funds, with $8 billion under management. The company's recent announcement of its DeepSeek-R1 model has not only knocked a trillion of market cap out of tech stocks but has also put the company's brand on the cutting edge of AI research. DeepSeek is now a shining example of China's growing capabilities in AI and quantitative finance. <https://substack.com/redirect/9105beef-2361-4097-90a4-dd6988688e49?j=eyJ1Ij…> *DeepSeek <https://substack.com/redirect/326226bf-be73-4dcd-a689-35c9f38d007b?j=eyJ1Ij…> founder and hedge fund manager Liang Wenfeng <https://substack.com/redirect/501daa37-3df1-43d5-9c68-241efdd8c50e?j=eyJ1Ij…> was motivated to start the AI company by regulatory crackdowns on quantitative trading in China and his desire to pursue more ambitious AI research.* The D <https://substack.com/redirect/e2895959-3f44-42d3-9b9b-4ea1b36572ae?j=eyJ1Ij…> eepSeek-V3 <https://substack.com/redirect/c6d05b26-134f-4231-abf7-c7e7ee4eafef?j=eyJ1Ij…> base language model foundation uses a mixture-of-experts architecture to handle tasks more accurately and efficiently. The recently introduced DeepSeek-R1 <https://substack.com/redirect/c6d05b26-134f-4231-abf7-c7e7ee4eafef?j=eyJ1Ij…>, built upon the DeepSeek-V3 foundation, is already matching or outperforming the power of closed model AI bots, including OpenAI's ChatGPT, Meta's Llama, and Anthropic's Claude <https://substack.com/redirect/c6d05b26-134f-4231-abf7-c7e7ee4eafef?j=eyJ1Ij…>. DeepSeek-R1 is also 10 to 50 times more affordable and cheaper to run, depending on the task. These power stats and the fact that DeepSeek's model efficiency means needing fewer AI chips are what sent Nvidia's stock tumbling. <https://substack.com/redirect/ac4be4a0-b9fc-4d9d-83f3-37b90a23ef02?j=eyJ1Ij…> The final market shocker was DeepSeek's now debunked report of only spending a mere $5.6 million in model training costs <https://substack.com/redirect/859545c4-9318-4cae-8e07-93da53297e94?j=eyJ1Ij…> versus an estimated '$100 million to $1 billion' for Anthropic's Claude, according to its CEO Dario Amodei, or Sam Altman's <https://substack.com/redirect/2737383c-8760-4474-a825-2328d5a26347?j=eyJ1Ij…> claim that it cost more than $100 million <https://substack.com/redirect/2737383c-8760-4474-a825-2328d5a26347?j=eyJ1Ij…> to build OpenAI's GPT-4 model <https://substack.com/redirect/2737383c-8760-4474-a825-2328d5a26347?j=eyJ1Ij…> . Driven by all this excitement, DeepSeek's app rose to No. 1 <https://substack.com/redirect/0bb6608d-bde5-40ef-a75c-63d2e0088894?j=eyJ1Ij…> on the Apple App Store, and downloads soared, reaching 2.6 million across <https://substack.com/redirect/0bb6608d-bde5-40ef-a75c-63d2e0088894?j=eyJ1Ij…> the App Store and Google Play as of last Monday morning. US and the Might AI Dragoon <https://substack.com/redirect/e9c54c24-1b1e-4f3e-bbd3-7e75117dddcf?j=eyJ1Ij…> *Palmer Luckey <https://substack.com/redirect/179fc7a3-3c12-4662-9dce-36d2af8c637c?j=eyJ1Ij…>, Founder & CEO of military AI startup Anduril <https://substack.com/redirect/179fc7a3-3c12-4662-9dce-36d2af8c637c?j=eyJ1Ij…> shows mullets are back in fashion and says don’t listen to CCP propaganda.* *"I think the problem is DeepSpeek put out a low development number [$5.6 million to train an AI model] specifically to harm US companies. I don't think that people should take what they're saying at face value. There's a reason they put out the news that way, and if the stock market is any indication, it's accomplishing exactly what they hoped to. We can recognize that Chinese AI is a real competitive threat without losing our minds over it and falling for CCP [Chinese Communist Party] propaganda.'* *—Palmer Luckey <https://substack.com/redirect/179fc7a3-3c12-4662-9dce-36d2af8c637c?j=eyJ1Ij…>, Founder & CEO of Anduril <https://substack.com/redirect/179fc7a3-3c12-4662-9dce-36d2af8c637c?j=eyJ1Ij…>, who previously sold Oculus to Facebook for $2 billion in 2014 in an interview with FOX Business.* *Editor's note: DeepSeek, like other Chinese technology companies, including TikTok, is subject to content restrictions and data-sharing requirements imposed by the Chinese government <https://substack.com/redirect/663e2c7e-956f-48b6-bc5a-c07088638f25?j=eyJ1Ij…>. DeepSeek's chatbot self-censors avoid answering questions on sensitive topics like Tiananmen Square, Taiwan, the maltreatment of the mostly-Muslim Uyghur population <https://substack.com/redirect/607f81bd-ddd9-4908-b6eb-3bdc20429f7b?j=eyJ1Ij…>, and the 'Great Firewall <https://substack.com/redirect/6ece68f5-f942-4b0d-94cc-c5e4f0f59b32?j=eyJ1Ij…>'. That's why we will never use it.* *In 2017, Xi Jinping also added the principle of 'civil-military fusion <https://substack.com/redirect/836a3cfb-39f9-43fd-a528-f38eb5860ca4?j=eyJ1Ij…>' to the CCP's constitution,' which mandates that all research and intellectual property in China be shared with the People's Liberation Army to use it for what they wish. In other words, all roads lead back to the Pigs running the farm. For all these reasons, we need to keep our eyes on the Mighty AI Dragon, and not use DeepSeek.* ------------------------------ [image: Are the VCs funding the noose with which China will hang us?] <https://substack.com/redirect/171b8b1b-2659-42c5-b077-411508d43c9c?j=eyJ1Ij…> Are the VCs funding the noose with which China will hang us? <https://substack.com/redirect/171b8b1b-2659-42c5-b077-411508d43c9c?j=eyJ1Ij…> Anthony Perkins <https://substack.com/profile/1338763-anthony-perkins> · June 22, 2023 Read full story <https://substack.com/redirect/171b8b1b-2659-42c5-b077-411508d43c9c?j=eyJ1Ij…> ------------------------------ *"I've been reading about China and some of the companies in China, one in particular, DeepSeek, coming up with a faster method and less expensive way to develop AI. And that's good because you don't have to spend as much money. That is a positive, as an asset. If it's a fact, and if it's true, that is very much a positive because we won't be spending billions and billions either, and we will hopefully get the same result. The release of DeepSeek's app should be a wake-up call for our industries, and we need to be laser-focused on competing to win."* *—President Donal Trump in an address to House Republicans last Monday, the day Nvidia's stock tanked 17%.* Part of the chatter on the streets of Silicon Valley is that in the long run, the AI winners will not be the companies that produce what will become remarkably fast marginal cost commodity services. The winners will be AI-powered users leveraging the new tools to spend less time producing a lot more work. 🤔 <https://substack.com/redirect/2dd31af6-6e7f-4c66-b5df-98424abedb8c?j=eyJ1Ij…> *Ethernet co-inventor, company founder, Turing Award winner, Metcalfe's Law namesake, and one of our heroes, Bob Metcalfe <https://substack.com/redirect/53f9a18e-175a-45d7-9cc8-ad93261afc64?j=eyJ1Ij…>.* Moore's and Metcalfe's Laws meet AI development *Moore's Law <https://substack.com/redirect/365ab7fb-a5d4-44b1-bbf2-eb948dd5c5b3?j=eyJ1Ij…> dictates that technology hardware gets cheaper and faster over time. Metcalfe's Law <https://substack.com/redirect/77aa69ea-c498-42ec-bd87-10a04ac6ed04?j=eyJ1Ij…> dictates clever companies can grow exponentially with a little help from their friends. In the next few year's, cheaper and faster AI chips, the use of synthetic data and more efficient training techniques, and the open-source AI model will dramatically reduce AI development and operating costs.* *All hype aside, DeepSeek's much cheaper and more efficient open source AI strategy is the real story we should be dissecting. DeepSeek's open source approach is fostering a collaborative and sharing community that drives code enhancements, makes fixes and offers new solutions—all at accelerated rates and a fraction of the cost of closed models. This is where Metcalfe's Law (V=n(n−1)/2) comes in <https://substack.com/redirect/cf819a1a-c282-465f-ab70-c603ff7699e8?j=eyJ1Ij…>, because the value of DeepSeek's platform's value will goes up not only in relation to its number of active users, but also via the rise in the size of its core open source development community helping to power its software innovation and accelerate its decentralized growth model.* *DeepSeek's open source strategy also offers several other value-building, cost-efficiency advantages over its closed source rivals, such as eliminating hefty licensing costs and and the ability to offer lower API fees <https://substack.com/redirect/1d6ec04f-8c5e-424e-ad23-8b23b379df64?j=eyJ1Ij…>. For instance, DeepSeek charges $0.55 per million input tokens and $2.19 per million output tokens, compared to OpenAI's $15 and $60 respectively. This dramatic cost reduction makes open source AI companies more accessible to high-volume users and resource-constrained organizations. Read more about the additional performance and other advantages of open source AI here <https://substack.com/redirect/1d6ec04f-8c5e-424e-ad23-8b23b379df64?j=eyJ1Ij…>.* *In our view, the biggest significance of the DeepSeek splash is highlighting a trend that suggests open source AI communities will play an increasingly significant role as AI innovators, accelerators, and cost cutters, spurring open access to advanced AI capabilities for the betterment of all.* <https://substack.com/redirect/0ecd0f42-df43-4070-81bc-213ea2cf33ae?j=eyJ1Ij…> *Tulipmania <https://substack.com/redirect/f739f15e-614b-436d-8a67-bd5cabfb4d0f?j=eyJ1Ij…>reached its zenith on February 5, 1637, at an auction in Alkmaar, Netherlands, where a single bulb of a rare variety sold for 5,200 guilders—five times the price of a modest urban house at that time. Street art: **Kaiya with Tulips** by @nilsrva <https://substack.com/redirect/aaf1817f-756e-4e83-bdac-cfe292dfc050?j=eyJ1Ij…>* AI Bubble Epilogue The bottom line is that the AI bot business will evolve into a highly valued, commodity-priced service delivered with significantly less development and operating costs compared to those paid by first-generation GenAI companies. Just as stocks can't escape P/E ratios, AI companies can't escape Moore's and Metcalfe's Laws. We lean with our boy Palmer Luckey <https://substack.com/redirect/179fc7a3-3c12-4662-9dce-36d2af8c637c?j=eyJ1Ij…>, the founder of Anduril <https://substack.com/redirect/179fc7a3-3c12-4662-9dce-36d2af8c637c?j=eyJ1Ij…>, about DeepSeek doing a DeepFake on its cheap training numbers. For one, the DeepSeek foundation reportedly used 2,048 H800 GPUs for its training, which alone costs between $50-100 million. At best, this ploy was part of a very successful marketing stunt worth a ton of app downloads, or at worse, part of a CCP plot to control more of our personal information. We sadly think it's both. No matter how deep the conspiracy goes, it can not be denied that the Chinese now have a highly competitive AI platform driven by open source development and a model that challenges the financial models of ALL the private AI companies listed in the table above, as well as Nvidia, Meta, and many other companies in the AI space. <https://substack.com/redirect/0f5ff699-d741-4b7e-b2b8-23d9ba24e29c?j=eyJ1Ij…> Web1

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Atty Should Lose License In Billing Scandal Case, Judge Says
by Gunnar Larson 04 Feb '25

04 Feb '25

Atty Should Lose License In Billing Scandal Case, Judge Says <https://www.law360.com/legalethics/articles/2291227?nl_pk=87c9365b-e736-431…> By Jake Maher A San Fernando Valley attorney colluded with attorneys for the city of Los Angeles in a water utility class action for which he received a $1.65 million fee and later sought to hire hackers to spy on the judge presiding over the class suit, a State Bar of California judge has found. Decision attached | Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/legalethics/articles/2291227?nl_pk=87c9365b-e736-431…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/legalethics/articles/2291227?nl_pk=87c9365b-e736-431…>

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Fwd: Overvalued AI companies part 2, SoftBank to double OpenAI's value?😳, The Trump Doctrine abroad and more mischief.…
by Gunnar Larson 04 Feb '25

04 Feb '25

Thank you for your email. Gunnar ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: The Cryptonite Weekly Rap <cryptoniteventures(a)substack.com> Date: Mon, Feb 3, 2025, 6:11 PM Subject: Overvalued AI companies part 2, SoftBank to double OpenAI's value?😳, The Trump Doctrine abroad and more mischief.… To: <g(a)xny.io> Will private AI company valuations be reset soon? ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ Forwarded this email? Subscribe here <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9jcnlwdG9uaXRldmVudHVyZXM…> for more <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9jcnlwdG9uaXRldmVudHVyZXM…> Overvalued AI companies part 2, SoftBank to double OpenAI's value?😳, The Trump Doctrine abroad and more mischief... <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1665481&post_id=156319704…> Anthony Perkins <https://substack.com/@anthonybperkins> and The Cryptonite Weekly Rap <https://substack.com/@cryptoniteventures> Feb 3 ∙ Preview <https://substack.com/@anthonybperkins> <https://substack.com/@cryptoniteventures> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1665481&post_id=156319704…> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1665481&post_id=156319704…> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1665481&post_id=156319704…> <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9vcGVuLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbS9…> READ IN APP <https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptoniteventures/p/overvalued-ai-companies-…> <https://substack.com/redirect/e4d881ab-b9a4-4e01-a437-f793555521a0?j=eyJ1Ij…> *Icarus** on the side of a skyscraper in Mexico City by Ukrainian muralist Aleksei Bordusov, aka Aec <https://substack.com/redirect/1e2862a1-7004-4b69-9de9-d43d49d9057b?j=eyJ1Ij…>.* Will private AI company valuations be reset soon? We perhaps boldly asked on Saturday if the Trump Pump, AI-hype combo has led to overvalued public tech companies like Nvidia, shouldn’t it be the same-same for private VC-backed AI companies? Due to more recent events and further processing, we wanted to share a couple of deeper thoughts on the subject. As a follow-on to the $500 billion Stargate <https://substack.com/redirect/10994a7e-000b-4469-bcb3-b7449ae09ed1?j=eyJ1Ij…> announcement, SoftBank is in talks to invest up to $25 billion in OpenAI <https://substack.com/redirect/0f7890c8-5e5d-4547-a10e-4f3076531a88?j=eyJ1Ij…> for a whopping rumored valuation of $300 billion! If this is true, this would be a huge 73% uptick from the $157 billion valuation Open AI fetched in October 2024 <https://substack.com/redirect/272d7879-1a1b-4b18-9a8e-fea4761b7268?j=eyJ1Ij…>, when the company raised $6.6 billion. SoftBank also bought $1.5 billion in OpenAI shares from existing investors a few weeks back, presumably at a more favorable valuation. This potential investment would make SoftBank OpenAI's largest single backer, surpassing Microsoft's current investment of around $13 billion. <https://substack.com/redirect/80d3bf4a-31a3-478f-9c54-baf7d771bc27?j=eyJ1Ij…> *Multi-billionaires row: President Trump, Masayoshi Son, CEO of SoftBank, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, and Sam Altman announce their Stargate <https://substack.com/redirect/10994a7e-000b-4469-bcb3-b7449ae09ed1?j=eyJ1Ij…> joint venture to ‘boost AI development and infrastructure in the US.’* Why Masayoshi Son would want to almost double OpenAI's value the week after Nvidia got a half-a-trillion market cap haircut is not believable, and our bet is he is back to the negotiating table with some adjusted deal math today. Masa <https://substack.com/redirect/2ba822b9-8a74-4306-9941-2c04ed0426b1?j=eyJ1Ij…>, who was born in Japan but is a third-generation Zainichi Korean, is widely regarded as one of the most influential and successful tech investors globally, with an estimated net worth of $34 billion. ------------------------------ [image: If DeepSeek wiped out $1 trillion of public tech company value—Just watch what happens to private AI company valuations…] <https://substack.com/redirect/bd7cb0bf-2414-45fd-b5f1-a14395d207bc?j=eyJ1Ij…> If DeepSeek wiped out $1 trillion of public tech company value—Just watch what happens to private AI company valuations… <https://substack.com/redirect/bd7cb0bf-2414-45fd-b5f1-a14395d207bc?j=eyJ1Ij…> Anthony Perkins <https://substack.com/profile/1338763-anthony-perkins> and The Cryptonite Weekly Rap <https://substack.com/profile/146561965-the-cryptonite-weekly-rap> · Feb 1 Read full story <https://substack.com/redirect/bd7cb0bf-2414-45fd-b5f1-a14395d207bc?j=eyJ1Ij…> ------------------------------ Growing into your market value In our last post, we suggested that the Nvidia/DeepSeek drama was a wake-up call on several levels, and it might be a good time to review the private company AI valuations while they are still private. In particular, we suggested starting with a sales projection versus value analysis, and that it might be smart, after seeing the success of DeepSeek’s open source AI model, to start thinking of AI as more of a commodity services model with potentially smaller profit margins than anticipated. We are currently finishing the final C*ryptonite 300 top private Web3 companies list,* and so far, we have identified 75 AI unicorns amongst the batch, 36 of which were newly minted in 2024. Of those, the top 30 are listed below. <https://substack.com/redirect/2cae1924-63bb-432e-86d6-742d84909001?j=eyJ1Ij…> *The top 30 private AI companies have received $86 billion in venture capital with a combined valuation of over $771 billion, representing an average VC multiple of 9x. 🤔* Market Value-to-Sales Let’s use OpenAI’s current $157 billion valuation as a case study and speculate on a $300 billion new funding valuation in relation to sales and sales growth. OpenAI posted $3.7 million in revenue for 2024, and typical figures say OpenAI is projecting $11.6 billion in revenue in 2025. As one data point, it took Microsoft, Google, and Facebook each three years and Apple four years to go from $3 million to $11 million in sales. If OpenAI hits its 2025 mark, the company will be the fastest-growing tech company in history. A related data point is the Price/Sales ratios (i.e., total company valuation divided by projected/forward sales). Only Microsoft (14.4x ) has a better P/S ratio than OpenAI’s current valuation (13.5x, assuming record sales), with Google (4.4x), Meta (7.3x), and Apple (8.8x). At Masa’s proposed $300 billion valuation, OpenAI’s P/S ratio goes to 25.9x.🤔 Another interesting analogy here is the case of ByteDance <https://substack.com/redirect/13b67688-9372-4140-8a6a-e03b7ada1219?j=eyJ1Ij…>, the owner of TikTok. As of 2024, ByteDance's valuation was estimated at $300 billion against $146 billion in sales in 2024. ByteDance’s 2025 forecast has not been published, and their future is very mirky given the forced sale of TikTok, but the company has been operating with a 2.5x P/E. <https://substack.com/redirect/f811ea85-f337-4593-8f19-ea86b396e8d0?j=eyJ1Ij…> *Artists Boris Bare and Dominik Vukovć with the Gulliver model Hrvoje Zalukar in Zagreb <https://substack.com/redirect/ff8ee1e9-63f8-4743-8d92-4c8166ca6d31?j=eyJ1Ij…>, Croatia's capital and renowned for its street art.* Downward pressure on sales There are several reasons that OpenAI and the private venture-backed companies may not meet their revenue goals, including radical competition from BigTech players (Microsoft, Facebook, Google, Apple) and 75 private company AI unicorns and counting (xAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek). Google is bracing for what industry analysts are forecasting as a significant drop in the company’s US search market share from 92% to below 50% by 2025 <https://substack.com/redirect/5691c887-f81a-4364-8ac1-603129d04d49?j=eyJ1Ij…> 😳 primarily due to the rise of generative AI search competitors. After a 10 percent cut in ‘managerial positions’ in December 2024, Google has introduced a voluntary buyout program for employees <https://substack.com/redirect/a77c5e7c-1117-4582-886b-5a902b027696?j=eyJ1Ij…> in its ‘Platforms and Devices’—Android, Chrome, etc., to streamline operations and focus on artificial intelligence development. Google’s only way to pull out of its potential revenue spiral is to compete fiercely in the AI app markets. <https://substack.com/redirect/c5b741fc-3972-4397-9e35-cf33ccab60a1?j=eyJ1Ij…> *We doubt OpenAI will recapture any market share it earned as the first-mover in the GenAI game. Source: Menlo Ventures <https://substack.com/redirect/3b178b02-5eb5-40fb-adf1-2a36068e1b63?j=eyJ1Ij…>.* A recent study by Menlo Ventures <https://substack.com/redirect/3b178b02-5eb5-40fb-adf1-2a36068e1b63?j=eyJ1Ij…> also showed that OpenAI lost market share in enterprise AI this year, dropping from 50% to 30%, while private company competitor Anthropic <https://substack.com/redirect/c9e1f997-1cf2-4d07-8d02-0f708b6e1d4c?j=eyJ1Ij…> doubled its share in the sector. Behind Anthropic are dozens of startups nipping at OpenAI’s (and each other’s) heels with faster, cheaper, and more specialized AI services. As an example, at Cryptonite, we prefer Perplexity <https://substack.com/redirect/1e7eb0b2-cc27-4fe6-9de8-a9d5c6eaec72?j=eyJ1Ij…>’s general search and xAI <https://substack.com/redirect/003fe271-34c3-4e05-b419-e5f743da1f16?j=eyJ1Ij…>’s Grok for a more technical search, including most of the financial numbers and analysis for this post. We are waiting for xAI’s laptop version, and then we can share our xAI <https://substack.com/redirect/003fe271-34c3-4e05-b419-e5f743da1f16?j=eyJ1Ij…> links as well. It’s a humble reminder that Google Search was the 17th search engine brought to marke <https://substack.com/redirect/28873496-b87c-45ab-a6ee-2448f3f066a8?j=eyJ1Ij…>t; Facebook successfully followed the Friendster flame-out and MySpace. So, any talk about the benefits of OpenAI’s ‘first-mover advantage <https://substack.com/redirect/db85265f-19bb-4e85-a2d7-c604b9c7802c?j=eyJ1Ij…>’ runs contrary to Silicon Valley entrepreneurial company history. ------------------------------ [image: Cryptonite's predictions for 2025—Short Google, Nvidia, & OpenAI?, the Elon/Zuck alliance, Robotaxis takeover, IPOs up...] <https://substack.com/redirect/468ef1c1-f269-4241-b115-ca80d5a7143e?j=eyJ1Ij…> Cryptonite's predictions for 2025—Short Google, Nvidia, & OpenAI?, the Elon/Zuck alliance, Robotaxis takeover, IPOs up... <https://substack.com/redirect/468ef1c1-f269-4241-b115-ca80d5a7143e?j=eyJ1Ij…> The Cryptonite Weekly Rap <https://substack.com/profile/146561965-the-cryptonite-weekly-rap> and Anthony Perkins <https://substack.com/profile/1338763-anthony-perkins> · Jan 6 Read full story <https://substack.com/redirect/468ef1c1-f269-4241-b115-ca80d5a7143e?j=eyJ1Ij…> ------------------------------ Open source is here to stay and will be a commoditizing force We still strongly contend that, in the long run, AI’s biggest winners will not be the companies that produce remarkably fast marginal cost commodity services but the AI-powered users leveraging the new tools to spend less time producing a lot more work. The biggest disruption of the DeepSeek story is not that the company is going to win in the market—it won’t because, like the current TikTok, it must adhere to the CCP’s censorship guidelines <https://substack.com/redirect/f5c1c23b-e170-4b75-b746-b8d5c88a0402?j=eyJ1Ij…>. It’s because DeepSeek’s novel, ‘optimization advances,’ as Zuck calls them, has shown Meta and Sam Altman what is possible and what code to swipe from the Chinese company to do the same. Copy and paste *‘DeepSeek had a few pretty novel infrastructure optimization advances, which, fortunately, they published, so we can not only observe what they did, but we can read about it and implement it, so that'll benefit us. It's always interesting when there's someone who does something better than you, and that motivates me to make sure we're on it.’* *—Mark Zuckerberg Talked of DeepSeek's advantages at an all-hands Meta employee meeting last Thursday <https://substack.com/redirect/0011822e-9663-4b77-ae4d-c984e45ac937?j=eyJ1Ij…>.* *"I personally think we have been on the wrong side of history here and need to figure out a different open source strategy; not everyone at OpenAI shares this view, and it's also not our current highest priority. But OpenAI will follow DeepSeek's approach. We are gonna show a much more helpful and detailed version of this soon. Credit to R1 for updating us.* *😳* *—Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, on a Reddit AMA session on Friday.* All this code-swiping has inevitable long-term effects for all AI companies— cheaper development costs, the need for fewer AI chips, and commodity pricing for general-purpose consumer and enterprise GenAI services. DeepSeek's open source approach fosters a collaborative and sharing community that drives code enhancements, makes fixes and offers new solutions—all at accelerated rates and a fraction of the cost of closed models. The open-source strategy also offers several cost-efficiency advantages over its closed source rivals, such as eliminating hefty licensing costs and <https://substack.com/redirect/04f37634-e903-415a-bd08-ca50553e4a8b?j=eyJ1Ij…> offering lower API fees <https://substack.com/redirect/04f37634-e903-415a-bd08-ca50553e4a8b?j=eyJ1Ij…> . Meta chief AI scientist Yann LeCun <https://substack.com/redirect/3d448b00-936e-4f4e-98bc-a1ab05ef52ea?j=eyJ1Ij…> has said the biggest takeaway from DeepSeek's success is the value of open source AI models versus proprietary ones. LeCun says, 'DeepSeek's achievements are not that China is surpassing the US in AI, but rather that open source models are surpassing proprietary ones.' Our view is that the open source model will dominate the AI sector like never before, and most of the first GenAI companies will need to adjust as Zuck and Sam are doing. <https://substack.com/redirect/9c88ea56-9db3-4eec-9978-de64919ed7be?j=eyJ1Ij…> *Future Ventures’ Steve Jurevtson <https://substack.com/redirect/05465be3-db3a-4a8b-abdd-9d626e4ea332?j=eyJ1Ij…>, of DFJ fame, and I, an early investor and long-time board member of Tesla, are looking to fund open source AI company Zyphra <https://substack.com/redirect/232c3d42-59eb-46dd-b4c4-a1039a89ac2b?j=eyJ1Ij…> with Skype cofounder Jaan Tallinn <https://substack.com/redirect/07a18c33-e11a-4fd8-af94-500c0817bdc9?j=eyJ1Ij…>* . Introducing *Zyphra <https://substack.com/redirect/232c3d42-59eb-46dd-b4c4-a1039a89ac2b?j=eyJ1Ij…>, a US open source AI company* *Zyphra <https://substack.com/redirect/232c3d42-59eb-46dd-b4c4-a1039a89ac2b?j=eyJ1Ij…>, a Palo Alto-based open AI model developer that can be downloaded to devices like phones or home entertainment devices, is in talks to raise $100 million in Series A funding at a $1 billion valuation. Returning investor Metaplanet, which manages investments for Skype founding engineer Jaan Tallinn <https://substack.com/redirect/07a18c33-e11a-4fd8-af94-500c0817bdc9?j=eyJ1Ij…>, is in talks to lead the latest round along with Bison Ventures and Future Ventures, the firm co-founded by early Tesla investor Steve Jurvetson <https://substack.com/redirect/05465be3-db3a-4a8b-abdd-9d626e4ea332?j=eyJ1Ij…>.* *Last October 2024, Zyphra released Zamba2-7B <https://substack.com/redirect/e311003f-79c6-4790-8660-3972db55d660?j=eyJ1Ij…>, a state-of-the-art small language model that outperformed leading models from Mistral and Google's Gemma at the 7B scale, proving they are suitable for on-device applications <https://substack.com/redirect/e311003f-79c6-4790-8660-3972db55d660?j=eyJ1Ij…>. Like DeepSeek, Zyphra's technology is released under an open-source license, allowing researchers, developers, and companies to leverage its capabilities*. *Zyphra <https://substack.com/redirect/232c3d42-59eb-46dd-b4c4-a1039a89ac2b?j=eyJ1Ij…> plans to hit $30 million in annualized revenue by the end of 2025 and $100 million in annualized revenue by the end of 2026, according to fundraising documents reviewed by The Information <https://substack.com/redirect/8822b8f7-597d-40e3-a21a-6d735c7e0344?j=eyJ1Ij…>.* Just as we thought the ultimate AI company winners were coming into view, new open source AI models are rewriting the sector all over again. Open-source AI companies and their communities will play an increasingly significant role as AI innovators, accelerators, and cost cutters, spurring open access to advanced AI capabilities. All this new activity is also challenging current propped-up VC portfolio company valuations. Has the new reality that AI VCs may have invested too much money at valuations that are too high set in yet? Time shall tell—and tell us shortly. *—Anthony Perkins, founder & editor Cryptonite <https://substack.com/redirect/927ddca8-b382-4cff-8496-e91025b6ad4d?j=eyJ1Ij…>* The Trump Doctrine on full display We highly recommend watching this Megyn Kelly interview with the new US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio <https://substack.com/redirect/a38dddf1-1ebb-4984-9ab7-b901c7dded5a?j=eyJ1Ij…>, where Mr. Rubio elaborated on the ‘America First’ doctrine while also acknowledging the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world order. He also touched upon China, Greenland, and Panama. <https://substack.com/redirect/d11decd0-5bd3-452a-b95d-785d25440c60?j=eyJ1Ij…> *"Now more than ever, we need to remember that foreign policy should always be about furthering the national interest of the United States and doing so to the extent possible while avoiding war and armed conflict. This is the duty of all countries.* *We're celebrating the 80th anniversary this year of the end of the Second World War, and I think if you look at the scale and scope of destruction and loss of life that occurred, it would be far worse if we had a global conflict today. Multiple countries now can end life on Earth, and so we need to really work hard to avoid armed conflict as much as possible."* *—Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State* After the interview, Rubio met with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino regarding the Chinese Communist Party's growing control over the Panama Canal's operations. He expressed to President Mulino that China’s influence poses a threat to US rights <https://substack.com/redirect/c67740a6-bfd6-43c5-a60a-8e03d02d603f?j=eyJ1Ij…> and violates the 1977 Panama Canal Treaty, <https://substack.com/redirect/20fc3cfb-6e7f-42c8-afe2-778d92bd53ef?j=eyJ1Ij…> and the US might take ‘necessary measures’ if immediate changes are not made. President Mulino characterized the conversation as ‘respectful’ and ‘constructive’ and shortly after announced that Panama would not renew its participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative <https://substack.com/redirect/159b5e65-26ff-4b1c-a802-5a244b3498ec?j=eyJ1Ij…> upon its expiration. <https://substack.com/redirect/b01b6bce-0f1d-482b-804b-bd93235cc383?j=eyJ1Ij…> *Damn glad to meet you, President Maduro, and glad we can send the Tren de Aragua gang <https://substack.com/redirect/9db78639-2a71-4ed9-ab81-84a99e9dcf36?j=eyJ1Ij…> members back home to you.* So far, the Trump Doctrine is 3-for-5. Colombian President Gustavo Petro initially refused to accept US military flights carrying deported Colombian migrants; however, he quickly backed down to pressure <https://substack.com/redirect/c7cf1e48-39a7-41f3-8f52-cc36128f7129?j=eyJ1Ij…> and offered his presidential plane to fly to the US to bring them home. Meanwhile, Richard Grenell, President Trump's envoy for special missions, visited Venezuela and met with President Nicolás Maduro. Mr. Grenell came home with six freed American hostages and President Maduro’s (whose ‘election’ the US still does not recognize <https://substack.com/redirect/b78e36f6-63dc-4978-b059-af89e0a2dab4?j=eyJ1Ij…>) agreement to take back all deported Venezuelan nationals, including members of the notorious Tren de Aragua gang <https://substack.com/redirect/9db78639-2a71-4ed9-ab81-84a99e9dcf36?j=eyJ1Ij…>. The third victory was the Panama deal, as outlined above. Meanwhile, the tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico became effective this weekend. It appears that soon departing Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau <https://substack.com/redirect/532671cc-deae-4d82-8a5e-735b455616cb?j=eyJ1Ij…> and new Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaumdo have no interest in addressing the Boogeyman’s requests for stricter enforcement against Mexican cartel drug smuggling, fentanyl production and distribution, and undocumented immigration across the Mexican and Canadian borders into the US. Given the reasonable nature of the US requests, we see both Presidents Trudeau and Sheinbaumdo backing down soon. The world will quickly figure out that President Trump’s negotiating bluster to ‘take back the Panama Canal, buy Greenland and make Canada the 51st state’ is just his way of getting everyone’s attention. Whether you love or hate the Boogeyman, his negotiating tactics work, and that is very good news for the US—*and* Canada, Mexico, Greenland, and Panama, too. Share <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1665481&post_id=156319704…> ------------------------------

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BREAKING: RFK Jr. Nomination to Lead HHS Clears Senate Committee
by Gunnar Larson 04 Feb '25

04 Feb '25

BREAKING: RFK Jr. Nomination to Lead HHS Clears Senate Committee <https://www.law360.com/health/articles/2291834?nl_pk=0f5983ea-0173-4e74-85e…> By Yeji Jesse Lee Senate lawmakers on Tuesday morning voted to advance Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s nomination to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Read full article » <https://www.law360.com/health/articles/2291834?nl_pk=0f5983ea-0173-4e74-85e…> | Save to favorites » <https://www.law360.com/health/articles/2291834?nl_pk=0f5983ea-0173-4e74-85e…>

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Trump’s Hedge Fund Guy Is Now Overseeing the U.S. Treasury, IRS, OCC, U.S. Mint, FinCEN, F-SOC, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
by Gunnar Larson 04 Feb '25

04 Feb '25

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2025/02/trumps-hedge-fund-guy-is-now-oversee… By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: February 4, 2025 ~ Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary Donald Trump has placed a man with no prior government experience, Scott Bessent, in charge of overseeing a sprawling network of federal agencies that are tasked with operating and protecting the financial system of the United States. What did Bessent do previously to qualify for this powerful position? He ran a hedge fund, Key Square Capital Management LLC, with 25 employees. But, more important to the transactional world of Donald Trump, Bessent gave $1.25 million to PACs supporting Trump and tens of thousands of dollars to state and national Republican parties and candidates. Bessent was sworn in as U.S. Treasury Secretary on January 28. In that position, Bessent sits at the helm of a federal agency that includes the IRS; the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which regulates national banks; the Bureau of Engraving and Printing (of U.S. currency); the U.S. Mint; the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), which is tasked with combating money laundering; and Bessent also Chairs the Financial Stability Oversight Council (F-SOC), which is made up of the heads of all major financial regulators. In addition, legislation passed by Congress will put Bessent in charge of the slush fund known as the Exchange Stabilization Fund; and, thanks to stealthy legislation passed during the first Trump administration, the Treasury Secretary is now a permanent member of the National Security Council (NSC) as well. And, if all that wasn’t enough, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) announced yesterday that Trump had made Bessent the Acting Director of the CFPB, which protects the little guy from the predators on Wall Street and elsewhere. Republicans and bank lobbyists have been trying to kill the CFPB for decades. Bessent has been in office less than 10 days and he has already begun making unsavory headlines by handing over access to highly confidential data in the U.S. Treasury’s $6 trillion payment system to people working for unelected tech billionaire Elon Musk. Yesterday, Bloomberg Law reported that Bessent had effectively shut down much of the CFPB’s operations, writing as follows: “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has shut down a wide variety of operations inside the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in his new role as acting director. “Bessent ordered the CFPB to stop all rulemaking, communications, litigation, and other activities, according to a Monday email to staff obtained by Bloomberg Law.” Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Ranking Member of the Senate Banking Committee, expressed her outrage at Bessent’s hostile takeover of the CFPB with this statement yesterday: “Secretary Bessent just sent a signal to giant corporations and big banks that it is open season to cheat, trick, and trap hard-working American families. Shutting down CFPB enforcement actions that are on the verge of delivering money into the pockets of working people is at odds with President Trump’s claim that he wants to lower costs for families – which he has done next to nothing on so far. This also follows Secretary Bessent giving Elon Musk and his cronies unprecedented access to government payment systems that deliver everything from Social Security checks to tax refunds. Secretary Bessent must reverse course, and if he doesn’t, I will use every tool at my disposal in the Banking Committee to hold him accountable – along with any company that lines its pockets at the expense of American taxpayers.” Warren is a former Harvard Law professor. She has the knowledge and the connections to back up her warnings. She cited the following examples of enforcement actions that Bessent has put “on ice” at the CFPB: “Capital One cheated millions of consumers out of $2 billion in interest by misleading them about their deposit accounts. “Walmart & Branch illegally opened over one million bank accounts for delivery drivers and charged more than $10 million in junk fees. “JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America allowed fraud to fester on the Zelle payment network, leading to hundreds of thousands of consumers losing nearly $1 billion. “Cash App left users out to dry with a dead-end customer support number and intentionally shoddy fraud investigations designed to discourage seeking help.” Of critical importance, Bloomberg Law also reported that Bessent’s email to CFPB staff ordered them to “suspend the effective dates” for all final rules that have not yet gone into effect. That would include two major triumphs for average Americans: the CFPB’s ban on including medical-related debt on consumer credit reports – which can negatively impact a consumer’s credit score and raise their borrowing costs – and the CFPB’s rule to cap overdraft fees at banks at $5 from the average of $35. In December, the National Consumer Law Center (NCLC) warned that the overdraft cap rule was in danger of being overturned, despite the fact that it would save consumers approximately $5 billion a year. The NCLC has set up a web page where Americans can whip off a prepared strong message to their representatives in Congress, urging that this rule move forward. Was it legal for Trump to put the head of one federal agency in charge of another federal agency? The Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998 provides the statutory basis for Trump placing the Treasury Secretary in charge of the CFPB on an acting basis. When a vacancy occurs in a federal agency within the Executive Branch, where the position requires a Presidential appointment and Senate confirmation, the default procedure is to name the first deputy or first assistant to the Director as the Acting Director. The President does, however, have the ability to override that default procedure and appoint anyone as Acting Director who has already been appointed to another federal agency by the President and has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate. Alternately, the President could also, under the statute, fill the position with someone employed in the agency if they had worked there for 90 days or more in the prior year. Despite these options, Trump selected a hedge fund guy with a vast array of responsibilities at Treasury to oversee the CFPB, and the first thing the hedge fund guy did was to shut down its ongoing enforcement actions, litigation and rule-making.

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