February 2025 - cypherpunks - lists.cpunks.org

The first cut is the deepest?
by Gunnar Larson 17 Feb '25

17 Feb '25

The United States has, for now, effectively stopped all aid spending. While in theory there are waivers for lifesaving food and drugs, *those waivers are all but worthless in practice* because there are neither the staff to administer them nor the financial systems to pay for them <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POqV49aWMJf3tF3-SKsfOxlW-vyUDBsU1…> . *Where are the cuts falling hardest?* My colleagues Miguel Antonio Tamonan and Alecsondra Kieren Si have once again been hard at work, charting the countries that are worst hit <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POp-u1cosIVwvdPz0UHv7SbuYLhSnY-kV…> — including Ukraine, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Jordan, and Afghanistan — and the sectors that will be worst affected <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POp-u1cosIVwvdPz0UHv7Sbv7HJLtJVVX…>, including humanitarian aid and global health. *Read:* Which countries would be worst hit by the US aid freeze? <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POp-u1cosIVwvdPz0UHv7SbuYLhSnY-kV…> [image: Pro] <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYs9PVPE8j-YEoCvI-Vbh2MzP--yAka5hvc3C…> *Read more:* Which sectors are most vulnerable to US aid cuts? <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POp-u1cosIVwvdPz0UHv7Sbv7HJLtJVVX…> [image: Pro] <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYs9PVPE8j-YEoCvI-Vbh2MzP--yAka5hvc3C…>

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Fwd: Presidents Day or Any Day - Always $1/W
by Gunnar Larson 17 Feb '25

17 Feb '25

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Fwd: Venture Capital's New Playbook: The Private Equity Tactic Reshaping Startups
by Gunnar Larson 17 Feb '25

17 Feb '25

---------- Forwarded message --------- From: The Information <hello(a)theinformation.com> Date: Mon, Feb 17, 2025, 11:05 AM Subject: Venture Capital's New Playbook: The Private Equity Tactic Reshaping Startups To: <g(a)xny.io> Read the latest article from The Information. Subscribe today and save 25% on all of our business, tech and finance reporting. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ [image: The Information] [image: The Information] <https://e.customeriomail.com/e/c/eyJlbWFpbF9pZCI6ImRnU2kwUVlEQU8yWGxBSHNsNV…> February 17, 2025 VC firms are borrowing a page from private equity, rolling up smaller companies into larger, AI-powered entities. This shift could *redefine how startups grow and compete <https://www.theinformation.com/articles/venture-capitals-latest-strategy-pr…>*. 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Fwd: I have a present for Gunnar!
by Gunnar Larson 17 Feb '25

17 Feb '25

---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Photo from Trump <contact(a)win.donaldjtrump.com> Date: Mon, Feb 17, 2025, 10:34 AM Subject: I have a present for Gunnar! To: Gunnar Larson <g(a)xny.io> Please, accept the Presidential Swearing In photo I signed for you before midnight ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ *PRESENT FROM TRUMP* JUST RELEASED - This is my Inaugural Swearing In photo! [image: MAGA! >] <https://email.win.donaldjtrump.com/c/eJw8kc2SoywYha8Gd1j6YoJZuOjvI1l0Veane6…> CLAIM SIGNED PHOTO <https://email.win.donaldjtrump.com/c/eJw8kc1ymzAUhZ9G7MTAFbbsBYu0sheZSZum7b…> I only signed a few of these. So, this present is only going to a few of my most loyal supporters! *THAT’S YOU!* *I can only hold onto your Signed Swearing in Photo until midnight, so please claim yours ASAP before someone else grabs the one I have on hold for you. > <https://email.win.donaldjtrump.com/c/eJw8kc1ymzAUhZ9G7MTAFT_xgoVb7EVmkrZpO0…>* CLAIM SIGNED PHOTO <https://email.win.donaldjtrump.com/c/eJw8kcuO2jAYhZ_G2TlKfocYFllMa1iMNL3QVr…> Sincerely, [image: MAGA! >] <https://email.win.donaldjtrump.com/c/eJw8kctymzAYhZ9G7MTAL25esEgre5GZtE3ajt…> [image: MAGA! >] <https://email.win.donaldjtrump.com/c/eJw8kcuSoyAYhZ8Gd1j6oyFZuOgZkkVX9Vwyl8…> Donald J. Trump President of the United States CLAIM SIGNED PHOTO <https://email.win.donaldjtrump.com/c/eJw8kcty2yAYhZ8G7dCgH0nYCy3SYi8y417StE…> Contributions to Trump National Committee JFC Inc. are not deductible for federal income tax purposes. All contributions are subject to the limits and prohibitions of the Federal Election Campaign Act. Contributions from corporations, foreign nationals (i.e., without “green cards”), federal government contractors, and other federally impermissible sources are strictly prohibited. Contributions made in the name of, or refunded by, any other person are unlawful. Paid for by Trump National Committee JFC, Inc., P.O. Box 509, Arlington, VA 22216. Not Authorized by any Candidate or Candidate’s Committee. You are receiving this email at g(a)xny.io Trump National Committee JFC Inc., PO Box 509, Arlington, VA 22216 donaldjtrump.com <https://email.win.donaldjtrump.com/c/eJxkkc1ymzAUhZ9G7MzAvRjBgkVamUVm3J-krZ…> If you'd like to change your subscription status follow this link. <https://email.win.donaldjtrump.com/c/eJw80E9vgjAcxvFXU26S8hQoHHpwQw4m7o_b4q…> Privacy Policy <https://email.win.donaldjtrump.com/c/eJxkkU-PmzAUxD-NuYHgGXA4cEhLoirSbtttq_…>

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‘Debate me’ has its limits
by Gunnar Larson 17 Feb '25

17 Feb '25

‘Debate me’ has its limits The *discussion on “Facing the Global Gender Backlash”* may well have been a first at the Munich Security Conference — but Kosovo’s president, Vjosa Osmani, nailed perfectly why it was central to the agenda. Osmani explained how female negotiators secure faster and more durable <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYszLyFqaY1P51mqh4EeDAwljMIyzow13dN_i…> peace settlements — not least in her own country — but also how *authoritarian leaders’ attacks on women’s rights* are deliberately targeting “one of the most empowering factors towards a democracy.” “This is not some woke agenda, this is geopolitical priority in itself,” she said, also emphasizing the *economic damage to a country from oppressing women* — by “leaving half of your population outside of your economic potential” — which meant “men and women, boys and girls alike, lose from not having equality.” Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, chief executive of the Washington-based International Civil Society Action Network <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYszLyFzWZNeibsmv0wX3cJ0B01DW9KL8yB9a…>, revealed that *several men had been asked to appear on the panel, but all had refused*, suggesting sarcastically: “Maybe they had other priorities?” Osmani called the no-show “quite discouraging.” *Further reading from our Munich coverage:* - Munich diary: The latest from the jam-packed security conference. <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POrnPnvUbNmc-DaZkTJKP0CHrzHNa7mKU…> - Senator warns legal victory may not stop USAID restructuring plans. <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POoOtUi1UZgl_03XBoBcisKPKF1NalWxI…> - Europe feels the pressure <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POig6K_6k2y73Jhxj3WzioVcQymv4oJBD…> as U.S. cuts off foreign aid.

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Safety at the table
by Gunnar Larson 17 Feb '25

17 Feb '25

*Safety at the table* On a similar note, food aid is not just about feeding the hungry — it’s a global national security imperative <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POhclVMjy-fPC1nQx1DZzXLn4CSOkiU8g…>, argue Michael Werz, senior adviser for North America and multilateral affairs to the Munich Security Conference, and Amadée Mudie-Mantz, an MSC policy adviser. “Food security *demonstrates the inherent link between development and national security* particularly well. Persistent food insecurity undermines stability in many contexts and can exacerbate or even lead to conflict,” they write in a Devex opinion piece. “Conversely, conflict and pervasive insecurity negatively impact food security by disrupting agriculture and food supply chains. This is exacerbated by the use of food as a weapon of war <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POv8t-6rdHnnjnEGO3jnVagh6uQr8P8t-…> .” They note that when calculating the costs of ad hoc emergency aid, health care, and the military to deal with the spillover effects of hunger, studies by the Food and Agriculture Organization <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYszLyFhj5DGp6R6yaJhmn8WWO6gN4gqbG1GP…> show *a benefit-cost ratio of up to 7:1* for anticipatory action interventions. *Opinion:* It’s time to redefine security to include development <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POhclVMjy-fPC1nQx1DZzXLn4CSOkiU8g…>

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Shhh!! Don’t call it climate action — again
by Gunnar Larson 17 Feb '25

17 Feb '25

Shhh!! Don’t call it climate action — again This omerta on use of the “c” word in domestic U.S. political debate also reared its head as a panel wrestled with the little-known fact that more people become refugees because of devastating weather events than because of war. U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said even senators with little concern for humanitarian crises acknowledge “this is creating instability in places where American security interests are implicated.” “*I can get bipartisan support* for security partnerships that also have beneficial humanitarian impacts. I can also get them to talk about extreme weather resilience, disaster preparation, and recovery — *as long as I don’t use the word climate*.” After a collective wince went around the audience for the debate entitled “Navigating Climate-Induced Migration,” Schatz added sheepishly: “I know it’s goofy, I apologize for that, but whatever gets people to the place where they can deal with the reality on the ground, I’m willing to do it.” Amy Pope, director-general of the International Organization for Migration <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYszLyF3cBRT3fnzGqqsfN1d6i2kFR_hR2boQ…>, agreed there is *widespread ignorance of how the climate crisis is weakening everyone’s security* — and that this, if overcome, offered a potential way forward: “When people recognize that there are serious security implications from failing to act, then maybe we see some action.”

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‘Left to fend for themselves’
by Gunnar Larson 17 Feb '25

17 Feb '25

*‘Left to fend for themselves’* Just when humanitarian agencies in famine-hit Sudan, and presumably its distressed people, believed the situation could get no more disastrous, along came the U.S. aid freeze. Kholood Khair, founder of the Confluence Advisory think tank, said *aid flows into her country had been “pitifully low”* since its civil war began in April 2023, with “untold horrors” of rape, starvation, and genocide. “Now, after the cruel deployment of the immediate freeze by the U.S. government – the largest humanitarian donor in Sudan – *Sudanese have been largely left to fend for themselves*,” Khair warned at a debate entitled “A Living Nightmare.” Ted Chaiban, a deputy executive director at UNICEF <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYszLyFje9uDDqs6ALWc0SeJgKvDImZ8hOp3F…>, agreed the *dismantling of USAID is hitting operations in Sudan*, saying: “We need an acceleration of the humanitarian waivers, the return of U.S. funding to be able to support the response.” And Filippo Grandi, the United Nations high commissioner for refugees, said some waivers were being secured, but agreed the confusion “makes the situation even more complex from the humanitarian point of view.” *Background reading:* ‘The world, as a whole, has dropped the ball’ on Sudan <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POg9zMhBSk812REZc5HyUTeyMphGcg9w6…> [image: Pro] <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYszLyFvfO7WMaChwcZ4xe228JXiY3jtHQsn5…>

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You are Ghana regret it
by Gunnar Larson 17 Feb '25

17 Feb '25

You are Ghana regret it The loudest voice was that of Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama, who warned the U.S. its aid cuts will lead to a loss of influence abroad to other major powers <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POux9_ZC5ACY5PXdtVJUhQ21F2HZMTvja…>, with the memorable phrase: *“As bridges are burning, new bridges are being formed.”* Mahama set out the pain inflicted on his country, telling a side meeting Ghana has been forced to cut $156 million of spending, including on economic growth and education plans, and — “the most critical” — $78 million of health cuts, to children’s care, maternity services, HIV testing, and access to antiretroviral drugs. However, Mahama sought to strike a positive note, arguing the awful decisions he and others are making would, in time, *make Africa “more self-reliant,”* boosting its food production and reducing trade barriers across the continent. On the impact for the U.S. of its retreat on the world stage, he said: “*One thing the U.S. will lose is that soft power* it has wielded in the world — I mean, these are people that are grateful for the assistance they get.” “There are many other partners. The U.S. are not our only partner. We will continue to cooperate with other countries and that’s why we have a multipolar world,” he added, without mentioning the widely predicted *main beneficiary — which is, of course, China.* “As bridges are burning, new bridges are being formed. We need to look for those new bridges and link the world with those new bridges,” Mahama said. *Ghana on US aid cuts:* ‘As bridges are burning, new bridges are formed’ <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POux9_ZC5ACY5PXdtVJUhQ21F2HZMTvja…>

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The development undertones at the Munich Security Conference
by Gunnar Larson 17 Feb '25

17 Feb '25

This sounds like a compounding returns success story, just waiting to happen. Gunnar Larson -- FEB. 17, 2025 BY ROB MERRICK <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYszLyFumL8UWPXWG16c9VKKIy6vW0uRV4vRQ…> A gruesome graph released <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYszLyFvD01xtyXNKezDOjjYWInMxlHFfetqA…> prior to the Munich Security Conference <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYszLyFwybkp1HPlqsHo7zXFpHYbka3bAXcdS…> listed *23 countries that will lose more than 1% of their national income* if — despite a federal judge’s order <https://t.devex.com/dc/kyXVoDpAY__Vu56MNr4POgHnU0AEd8M6o_YcsV5JNktSm0mgltPK…> — the USAID <https://t.devex.com/Njg1LUtCTC03NjUAAAGYszLyFj61YlJhDzOFxYVbY1qZL0JggB6nOSl…> funding freeze lasts for a full year. Eight countries face a hit of 3% or more. Some will have had representatives among the 200 government leaders and ministers at the first major global gathering *since the Trump administration’s attempt to dismember USAID*, at an event that increasingly drills into development and the climate crisis as integral aspects for achieving security. With more than 30% of speakers hailing from the global south, would Munich witness a blowback from this assault on aid, perhaps the first green shoots of a global response to the United States’ retreat from an internationalist agenda? Not really. Instead, the 61st Munich Security Conference will be remembered for U.S. Vice President *JD Vance delighting in the disintegration of the Western alliance* while — to the fury of European leaders — cheering on far-right parties, some with their roots in fascism. The plight of low-income countries was addressed, but it was the trans-Atlantic tensions that grabbed the majority of headlines. So here's some of the *critical development discussions you might've missed* beyond the Vance aftershocks.

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