bin Laden tape reliability

[Talley Anonymous Remailer]

Have any of the cypherpunks run across useful analyses of the recently
released bin Laden videotape?

Mainstream media seems ready to question the accuracy of the translation -
but I'm curious if the tape has any basis in reality at all.

Purportedly, it was discovered by unidentified parties in an abandoned
house in Afghanistan, then delivered to the CIA for processing before
release by the Defense Department.

How do we know it wasn't manufactured in order to mislead?

Perhaps it was left in the abandoned house as a deliberate red herring -
something like that would take some budget, which would seem to 
suggest it was produced by the intelligence arm of at least a moderate-
sized nation. (Like Israel. Or the UK. Or the USA. Or ..?)

Perhaps it wasn't found in an abandoned house at all, but was born
somewhere in the DC suburbs.

If someone intended to make a distracting fake, it seems like they might
follow one of two paths - they could find (or help create, with some
Hollywood magic) a bin Laden lookalike, and have him interact with some
other Afghan/Arabic-looking folks. Or, they could go digital, and 
create a wholly artificial animation model of bin Laden.

The first method is probably easier, but also probably easier to detect,
if analysts are inclined to compare things like facial geometry or
voice characteristics. (It's a shame the tape has such poor quality.)

The second method would likely allow the creation of near-undetectable
fakes, especially if they overlaid the animated creation on top of 
a physically constructed set with natural lighting, etc (though lighting
and shadow might be good places to look for evidence of forgery, or
lack thereof.)

Maybe the tape is exactly what it purports to be - hard to say. But
the media's not even asking the interesting questions.