USA 2024 Elections Thread

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Gallup foced to admit Repubs will win 2024...

Social Conservatism In U.S. Highest In A Decade: Gallup

By Jeffrey Jones of Gallup

More Americans this year (38%) say they are very conservative or
conservative on social issues than said so in 2022 (33%) and 2021
(30%). At the same time, the percentage saying their social views are
very liberal or liberal has dipped to 29% from 34% in each of the past
two years, while the portion identifying as moderate (31%) remains
near a third.

The last time this many Americans said they were socially conservative
was 2012, during a period when consistently more U.S. adults
identified as conservative rather than liberal on social issues.

The results are based on Gallup’s annual Values and Beliefs survey,
conducted May 1-24. The survey comes at a time when many states are
considering policies regarding transgender matters, abortion, crime,
drug use and the teaching of gender and sexuality in schools.

The increase in conservative identification on social issues over the
past two years is seen among nearly all political and demographic
subgroups. Republicans show one of the largest increases, from 60% in
2021 to 74% today. Independents show a modest uptick of five
percentage points, from 24% to 29%, while there has been no change
among Democrats (10% in both 2021 and 2023).

Since 2021, there have been double-digit increases in conservative
social ideology among middle-aged adults -- those between the ages of
30 and 64. At the same time, older Americans’ ideology on social
issues has been stable, while there has been a modest increase in
conservative social ideology among young adults.

Economic Conservatism Also Ticks Up

When Americans are asked to describe their views on economic issues,
44% identify as very conservative or conservative, 33% moderate and
21% very liberal or liberal. The percentage saying they are
conservative averaged 40% between 2020 and 2022. The current figure is
the highest since 46% in 2012.

Americans have consistently been more likely to say they are
conservative on economic issues rather than liberal, by no fewer than
16 percentage points (in 2021).

During the poll’s field period, President Joe Biden and Congress
debated legislation to raise the federal debt ceiling and cut federal
spending.

Americans have been more likely to identify as economically
conservative rather than liberal because Republicans overwhelmingly
say they are conservative, but Democrats are not overwhelmingly
liberal. In 2023, 79% of Republicans identify as conservative on
economic issues, while 48% of Democrats say they are liberal.
Additionally, more independents identify as economic conservatives
(36%) than liberals (16%). About half of independents say they are
moderate on economic matters.

Partisans’ ideology on economic issues has been steady in recent
years. The modest shifts in economic ideology among national adults
are instead driven by slight changes in political party identification
among U.S. adults (from an average 29% Republican, 32% Democratic in
the 2020 and 2021 surveys to 30% Republican and 29% Democratic in the
2023 survey).

Bottom Line

For most of the past eight years, Americans were about as likely to
say they were liberal as conservative on social issues. This year,
there is a more obvious conservative advantage. The shift is mostly
due to increasing social conservatism among Republicans, at a time
when social issues such as transgender rights, abortion and other
hot-button concerns are prominent in the national public debate.

Greater social conservatism may be fostering an environment more
favorable to passing conservative-leaning social legislation,
especially in Republican-dominated states. Indeed, in the past year,
many Republican states have passed stricter constraints on abortions,
limited choices for transgender youth in sports participation and
healthcare, and placed prohibitions on what topics can be discussed in
classroom settings.

Americans remain more likely to say they are conservative on economic
issues. When asked to describe their political views overall, without
reference to social or economic issues, 40% say they have conservative
views, 31% moderate and 26% liberal. Overall ideological
identification, thus, is less conservative than it is for economic
issues but more conservative than for social issues, though closer to
the social issue figures.