[wrong] [ot] crazy journal

Karl gmkarl at gmail.com
Sun May 30 12:25:43 PDT 2021

On Sun, May 30, 2021, 3:23 PM Karl <gmkarl at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sun, May 30, 2021, 3:21 PM Karl <gmkarl at gmail.com> wrote:
>> Sample a known histogram of a population.
>> Say there nbuckets bins, and poptotal events.
>> When we sample a histogram, I think there are ... Some number of total
>> ways to do it.  The poptotal.  So there are poptotal total options for the
>> first sample and poptotal^samptotal total sampled histograms: and many of
>> those histograms are identical, indicating they are more probable.
>> I am definitely making a number of weighted choices repeatedly.
> I am _so_ _confused_ and I don't understand the confusion.  Usually when
> confused I find ways to continue.
> The goal is: discern how accurately it is reasonable to measure the most
> likely choice of population histogram given a sample, and do so.
> To meet a goal we need steps to reach it.

Steps are easy to find by considering steps that have worked for things
that are similar, or looking for behaviors that have similarity to parts of
the goal.  A great way to look for things is to consider things that are
conceptual near for similar tasks, and if you can remember why you're
looking you can do it even better.

A step towards discerning this is to try out untried avenues, and preserve
information on whether they are likely to work or not.

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