Moore's Law and chips.
grarpamp at gmail.com
Fri Dec 28 19:44:57 PST 2018
There is an asymptote that is being approached
with near current feature size technology. Future
optimizations will be on both size and power,
and certainly much more parallelism and
specialization, wringing every last bit. Certainly
far more than double there. Yet research will as
always provide some more marginal breakthroughs.
And quantum understanding will initiate an entirely
new race if that ever happens. Even if not, as physics
and invention curve is reached, die size will go up until
sustainable defect rates govern. And then that's it,
for a very long time. A great leveling in ubiquitous
compute power will occur. All will have access to
the best, cheaply, as a boring commodity. Freely
solar and wind powered even.
Some say that is a good thing.
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