Moore's Law and chips.
jdb10987 at yahoo.com
Fri Dec 28 13:58:48 PST 2018
"The elephant in the room has been, for a very long time, Moore’s Law—or really, its eventual end game. Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted in a 1965 paper that the number of transistors on a chip would double each year. More transistors mean more speed, and that steady increase has fueled decades of computer progress. It is the traditional way CPU makers make their CPUs faster. But those advances in transistors are showing signs of slowing down. “That’s running out of steam,” said Natalie Jerger, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Toronto."
[end of partial quote]
Actually, the transistor-count "doubling time" in the 1960's was 1 year. By the 1970's, and through the 80's, the doubling-time had changed to about 18 months. During the 1990's, the doubling time became 2 years.
The largest portion of those doublings were contributed by a gradual reduction in the size of MOSFET transistors, although a small component of this increase was an even more gradual increase in the sizes of the chips.
But as no doubt everyone predicted, we are approaching the 'end' of this: The diameter of a silicon atom is about 0.22 nanometer, while the current generation of semiconductor chips is said to be at "10 nanometer". So, that's a width of about 45 silicon atoms, laid end to end. Nobody will figure out a way to decrease the size of a silicon atom.
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