camera_lumina at hotmail.com
Thu Feb 24 14:24:39 PST 2005
Good presentation. I liked the boot diagrams quite a bit.
Prediction (and remember you heard it here first): TCPA will fail. Oh it'll
see some spot uses, don't get me wrong. These spot uses might even remain
for a while. But the good thing is that Microsoft is probably going to have
to carry the ball on this one, and they'll think they have a few iterations
to iron out the bugs. But users will defect in droves as all sorts of
unexpected and wacky things start to happen and they'll defect in droves.
Right about then even some of the studios are going to begin to understand
that by choking off the spigot they'll be choking their own product flow
which will have to increasingly compete with independents (who can
distribute music over the internet just as easily as SONY can). So some
genius will make a convincing enough boardroom presentation showing that the
additional revenues they gain through TCPA is far more than overset by the
effective loss of advertising. That realization will hit just as the general
public starts learning what TCPA is and why their computer is as buggy and
crashy as it was during the Windows 95 days.
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