Tyler Durden camera_lumina at
Thu Feb 24 14:24:39 PST 2005

Good presentation. I liked the boot diagrams quite a bit.

Prediction (and remember you heard it here first): TCPA will fail. Oh it'll 
see some spot uses, don't get me wrong. These spot uses might even remain 
for a while. But the good thing is that Microsoft is probably going to have 
to carry the ball on this one, and they'll think they have a few iterations 
to iron out the bugs. But users will defect in droves as all sorts of 
unexpected and wacky things start to happen and they'll defect in droves.

Right about then even some of the studios are going to begin to understand 
that by choking off the spigot they'll be choking their own product flow 
which will have to increasingly compete with independents (who can 
distribute music over the internet just as easily as SONY can). So some 
genius will make a convincing enough boardroom presentation showing that the 
additional revenues they gain through TCPA is far more than overset by the 
effective loss of advertising. That realization will hit just as the general 
public starts learning what TCPA is and why their computer is as buggy and 
crashy as it was during the Windows 95 days.

Boo hoo.


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