"Stay Behind" strategies in Iraq

[Tim May]

On Thursday, April 10, 2003, at 04:28  PM, Bill Frantz wrote:

> At 2:41 PM -0700 4/10/03, Major Variola (ret) wrote:
>> Some of the poverty was due to the government control of resources
>> and how it spent it.  Face it, Iraq has plenty of wealth to pay back
>> investors and locals.  All you need is enough warships to guarantee
>> that you *will* recover costs.
>
> I'm not sure about this one.  An article in this morning's San Jose 
> Mercury
> News indicated that Iraq's international debt (commercial to Russians, 
> and
> compensatory to Kuwait to name just two) amounts to about 32 years oil
> production.


And many of the existing facilities are _old_, as the hazards of the 
past 20 years have limited construction opportunities. The French and 
the Russians built some facilities.

A lot more would be needed.

As you cite, the profits from the oil output are already spoken for. 
Now, of course, the new regime in Iraq could simply repudiate its 
national debt and specific debts on specific refineries and pipelines 
and say "We're starting over, with contracts going to Exxon/Mobil, 
Halliburton, and Zapata Petroleum. Oh, and one to our British friends." 
Perhaps they should.

But even if they do, and even if, say, a couple of dollars a barrel get 
passed out on street corners in Saddam City, this won't change the 
underlying basket case nature of their economy.

Iraqi GNP per person was about $1500. This was before the latest war.

There is virtually no chance production will be ramped up (new wells 
drilled, new pipelines laid, new refineries built) fast enough to 
affect the 30 million Iraqis in any significant way.

Sometimes ya just got to say "Glad I don't live there!" and be done 
with it. Unfortunately, now we cannot just be done with it, as we're 
knee deep in the Big Muddy, and the big fool says to push on.

--Tim May

"We are at war with Oceania. We have always been at war with Oceania."
"We are at war with Eurasia. We have always been at war with Eurasia."
"We are at war with Iraq. We have always been at war with Iraq.
"We are at war with Syria. We have always been at war with Syria."