"Stay Behind" strategies in Iraq

[Major Variola (ret)]

At 04:03 PM 4/10/03 -0700, Tim May wrote:
 >On Thursday, April 10, 2003, at 02:41  PM, Major Variola (ret) wrote:
 >> Nothing the world wants to buy?  Forgotten about the oil?
 >
 >What part of "no _factories_ producing stuff" was unclear? (Emphasis
 >added. Oil is not something skilled workers produce...it is something
 >that a very few produce, leaving most dependent on only what trickles
 >down.)

Nothing was unclear.  But I don't understand your emphesis on
factories.   You can make a living off wheat, you don't have
to make bread.  Growing wheat, pumping oil don't need skilled
labor.  Its enough to have nature provide the opportunity.


 >> It is sufficient for a country to sell raw materials, it does not have
 >> to process them, or make elaborate things to sell.
 >>
 >> The peasants have their labor to sell, and the oil companies will
 >> buy it.
 >
 >You clearly have not visited oil wells or refineries lately.

True.

Most of
 >the drilling is done by specialized drilling companies, e.g., the
 >French, German, British, Dutch, and U.S. drilling companies. They hire
 >a small number of locals...probably they'll be hiring far fewer for
 >upcoming projects, due to security measures.

Ok, the Iraqis will work in the 7-11s which serve the yankees.
Some Iraqis will do better.  They will inspire others.  They will
also be used by psyops to argue for "the american dream" for
Iraqis.  And although exploited by psyops, I think all humans
want to improve their circumstance.

And to handle security, you might employ locals, who are
more politically expendable.  And if they're offed, the USG
might even gain points locals, since gen-u-ine Ay-rabs would have
been killed.  Much more empathetic to the natives
than imported Halliburton Texans.

Yes, the US could keep the Iraqis poor.  But its not in the USG
interest.  The USG wants MTV in every Arab home. 
(Albeit this will piss off the Islamo Fundies, but they're
already majorly pissed.)

 >Refineries are built by the Bechtels and Parsons and their European and
 >Japanese counterparts. Most are nearly fully-automated. Again, a
 >comparatively tiny number of locals will be hired.

Even if true (I'm not fully clued to the oil biz, I'd be
surprised if any readers here were)
the US imposed 'interim' govt will tax this to
fund things (like jobs, or even sinecures) that win favor. 
Why?  Because the govt worries more about Iraqi/Arab backlash more
than Halliburton's profits.   For a while, anyway.

And I am dubious of the "fully automated" claims, frankly, though
that is also an empirical matter, perhaps researchable by
studying oil ops in the region.  If you liquidate the towelhead kings
of the region, you might find a lot of distributable wealth
(I'm not a socialist, neither am I an admirer of monarchy.)
which the US conquerers would distribute.  A great way
to curry favor with the populace.  Libertarian ideals don't
prescribe a way to distribute land-based wealth in the region,
though I'd love to be corrected. 

....
Mohamed Atta --An Army of  One