On Fri, 18 Aug 2017 09:29:54 -0500 Steven Schear <schear.steve@gmail.com> wrote:
[Disclosure: I am a strong supporter of L1 (Blockchain scaling) occurring before any L2 (e.g., Segwit, Blockstream, Lightening Network, etc.) is attempted. And even then all L2 must be thoroughly examined not only for technical flaws but for possible misuses
misuses such as? And who is going to do the examination? ....
By far the main driver for miners is revenue. In general they will go to whatever blockchain they earn the most. Analysis of the hash power being expended on both chains versus the difficulties and value of each coin showed that the two were converging insofar as mining profitability. There is also an anomalous aspect to the sources of the BCC mining power. Unlike that of BTC, where most of the hashing power is associated with known large mining cartels, the majority of BCC mining is by unknown parties.
lol - there's a different version of that story : BCH was created by the monopolistic producer of bitcoin asics - bitmain - in order to keep using a patented algo. You should know as much...
There has been significant variation of mining power over relatively short intervals on both blockchains. The timing of this variation very much indicates that the miners were attempting to beneficially manipulate both the value of BCC vs. BTC and quickly decrease the mining effort for BCC.
BTC BCH TOT BTC BCH BTC BCH BTC ( Hash Power ) ( Difficulty) ( Block Time ) (mempool)
11 August 6600 338 6938 923 115 10.00 21 55 12 August 6199 416 6615 923 115 10.66 20 15 13 August 6808 440 7248 923 115 9.73 18.46 27 14 August 5951 522 6473 923 115 11.07 15.82 47 15 August 6966 647 7591 923 115 9.47 12.85 53 16 August 5984 484 6468 923 115 11.07 17.14 50
- Since 11 August Hash Power on the BCH chain has increased daily. - Hash power on BTC chain on the other hand fluctuates from day to day, by up to 1000 PH and the mempool continues to grow.
The table above are snapshots taken at a point in time each day. Their individual states can be monitored in real time here <https://bitinfocharts.com/>*. Scroll down to the hash rate. BTC hash rate is down to 4853 PH. This is more than 2000 PH below the table above and the mempool <https://blockchain.info/charts> has now exceeded 65MB. A Death Chain Spiral may have set in but is being "managed".
This large fluctuation of BTC hash rate could be the miners preventing difficulty from adjusting downwards, and at the same time growing the mempool. It is also possible that with over 1000 blocks to the next difficulty recalculation, we may not see another difficulty adjustment on BTC anytime soon.
It is uncanny that we see very little discussion and debate at the very top. It is as though the NYA agreement have settled everything. However make no mistake. What seem calm belies what is happening in the background. Like a duck on the water paddling furiously underneath.
Over at r/bitcoin talk seems to center around price and technology. Nothing about any negativity, usability or the growing mempool. Censorship of robust discussions is just downright deceitful. Especially if it is the de facto forum. It must quit being a propaganda organ. There will be consequences.
The people around Segwit may be frantically on the phone, fax and email arguing and pleading with the miners. They can see the writing on the wall. Only 124 blocks were found in the last 24 hours. Block time have increased to 11 minutes and the mempool is in excess of 70MB. It is "too little too late". For many of the miners "Revenge is a dish best eaten cold".
Steve