At 06:19 AM 4/23/96 -0700, Sandy Sandfort wrote:

didn't Unicorn offer Mr. Bell a wager on this issue? Isn't the ball in Mr. Bell's court to put his money where his mouth is?

Yeah: fifty thousand dollars. Not that it makes the slightest difference. On the extropians list a number of very large bets were made and accepted, but nobody ever paid up. (Or very few -- I know of no cases.) When somebody proposes a bet that is substantially larger than the likely cost to his reputation if he weasels out, one can expect that, if he erred, he will not pay. Now if Unicorn had proposed a bet for one hundred dollars, then I would sit up and take notice. A hundred dollars is real money. Fifty thousand dollars is hot air, like one kid says, "I bet you I am right", and the other kid says "I bet you a zillion dollars you are wrong". If somebody proposes a bet that is larger than the likely reputation cost of weaseling, we should ignore the bet and subtract from the guys reputation as if he had already weaseled, since the events of the extropian list show that that is the most likely outcome. All of us have been wrong from time to time on matters where we were sure we were right. Anybody who was serious about paying would not make such ridiculous bets. --------------------------------------------------------------------- | We have the right to defend ourselves | http://www.jim.com/jamesd/ and our property, because of the kind | of animals that we are. True law | James A. Donald derives from this right, not from the | arbitrary power of the state. | jamesd@echeque.com