Diskless "Eunuchs" Machines Likely to Fail
At 6:17 AM 11/28/95, Steven Weller wrote:
The same sort of things could be said of the telephone compared with written correspondence. Why would anyone have one in their business or home? Anyone can overhear a conversation, people will just chat, the only thing you can do with it is talk, there is no record of the correspondence, why would anyone want to talk to people on the other side of town? etc.
Think telephone, not computer. Think people over 40 who want a communication tool with zero maintenance and zero learning curve.
I'm skeptical of the "Diskless Internet Box = Telephone" analogy. Folks I know who are not computer-savvy, or who have other things they'd rather be doing, are not likely, as I see it, to buy boxes that still require them to type messages to other people but that don't allow them to download and save the interesting stuff they find. The telephone appealed to those who truly wanted to "just keep talking"...that was the beauty of it. Most people don't know how to touch-type, and typing by hunting-and-pecking is painful and unnatural for most people. A couple of years ago "the computer for the rest of us" was said to be a pen-based Newton-type machine, now it is said to be a diskless, memory-limited "Eunuchs" machine. (The diskless--and disketteless--systems I've seen described recently would make it impossible for me to interact as I currently do. To be sure, maybe "data storage services" will spring up to temporarily store stuff one has snarfed, but the download to one's home terminal still must be done again. Faster modems, and cable modems, will change things somewhat, but then this is a huge change in a lot of ways, in any case. Even the stereotypcial "chatters" at AOL are heavy users of local storage: witness the massive number of "me too!" posts from AOLers whenever a nude GIF or JPEG of Sandra Bullock or Jennifer Anniston is mentioned...they clearly are downloading a lot of images and whatnot to home machines...that measly 4 MB of flash memory is going to get filled up mighty fast.) By the way, Intel builds a lot of the motherboards for use by various companies. Someone at Intel claimed recently that even if the CPU was completely free (as some 486s effectively are already), Intel could not see how a system could be consistently built for under $500, including monitor, small disk, memory, etc. (The Oracle folks are muttering about a Newton-like OS which would load objects or applets or whatever in a more efficient way...this might work, but I'm still skeptical that user's needs can be met. Those folks wanting local access to the JPEGs of Sandra Bullock will still be out of luck....) I see a greater chance that home game machines, such as the 3DO and Sony PlayStation machines will get Web browsers done for them than I do that people will buy machines that are so limited. The only relevance of this whole topic to Cypherpunks is....is....minimal. --Tim May, who plans to find a way to use this boondoggle idea by Oracle to make money. (Right now I'm long Oracle, but this may soon change.) Views here are not the views of my Internet Service Provider or Government. ---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---- Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@got.net 408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero Corralitos, CA | knowledge, reputations, information markets, Higher Power: 2^756839 | black markets, collapse of governments. "National borders are just speed bumps on the information superhighway."
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- In article <ace0059603021004f459@[205.199.118.202]>, Timothy C. May wrote:
A couple of years ago "the computer for the rest of us" was said to be a pen-based Newton-type machine, now it is said to be a diskless, memory-limited "Eunuchs" machine.
Beyond the specifics of Oracle's naive vision, I think what is doomed (I hope) to fail is the obsolescent paradigm that it reflects. It seems that many corporate types are fixated on the idea of tractable and predictable consumers. The need to raise the population and broaden the demographic of potential customers for the coming Information SuperMarketway by minimizing the entry cost is obvious. The approach to understanding the actual dynamics of why people are and will increasingly come into this space and what they will want to do once they get there is deficient for many. Some are intimidated by the unpredictably evolving emergent properties of consumer (well, still mostly window shopper) behavior in this new territory, and are looking for the comforting familiarity that their marketing consultants and financial planners could provide them in the old brickspace way of doing business. Others are puzzled, or are overtly threatened by the idea of potential consumer's who are also content producers. I think that the limitations of interactive set-top boxes and lobotomized net terminals appeals to this mindset. There's less likelihood of troubling novel behavior and initiative. The consumer's options are constrained and thereby the details of marketing are more manageable. These prospective cyber-consumers who are increasingly in the frustrating habit of producing and sharing content amongst themselves (usually for free, no less!), thereby distracting each other from the content providers and virtual storefronts they should be flocking to, are a potent wild card in the game that many cannot deal with, and some wish they could deal out of the deck. This nascent internet phenomenon is the economic aspect of the broader disintegration and decline of the means to control mass opinion and behavior that many in the current ruling class find threatening as well. The corporations that can get a clue, and learn how to go with the flow of this changing environment, can still prosper. The dinosaurs who can't, or won't adapt, will free up valuable niches for the independent upstarts who not only can ride the waves of change, but who thrive on them and even strive to make them bigger. Oracle's vision of the low-cost, diskless "Eunuchs" net station may materialize on the shelves of Walmart, and Circuit City, etc... But it will not take long for those who buy them to realize that they are in a subclass on the internet (That is, if they are really given the freedom to explore the net at large) and to feel frustrated with their limited options to create and express themselves. Those too dim-witted to notice or care might as well have remained as bovine Cable Shopping Network viewers ensconced in their TV room lounge chairs. I do think that there is a substantial and viable market for entry level notebook form factor (running off a cheap wall socket DC converter with battery optional) 'Net' PC's well below $1000 in the not-too-distant future. Processor and hard drive costs are certainly dropping fast enough to make that a credible possibility. Display and memory costs remain the major obstacles, but I think workable compromises could be made. This could be a potent opportunity for somebody like the AIM alliance to make an end run around the Intel-Microsoft axis, if they were able to take the long view and act decisively (yeah...fantasy). Start with something like the low end PPC602, develop a highly integrated chip set for video, drive, RAM controller, modem, etc... Surface mount on board with RJ-11, USB and external monitor connector, include as much HD as will fit within the target production cost. Throw in a SIMM or DIMM slot for the option of supplementing the minimum included memory later. Provide greyscale LCD standard with color dual-scan option. Come up with a _TIGHT_ fully native code subset of MacOS. Add a compact application suite including internet connectivity plus simple PIM and WP functionality. Provide a coupon for a subsidiary online service cum internet gateway, ala MSN. Sell the machine at a minimal margin over cost, and view the entire venture as a way to gain broad market presence. Market presence must have substantial worth, because Netscape's stock is surely not being valued on its price-earnings ratio.
The only relevance of this whole topic to Cypherpunks is....is....minimal.
Well, perhaps. I suppose I'm risking the chastisement of Cypherpunk purists with my follow-up on this non-crypto topic. But it seems to me that the broadest shared sentiment among the people on this list is a passionate interest in defending and expanding personal liberty, sovereignty and privacy in cyberspace, and the realization that the unencumbered use of strong cryptography is indispensable to those goals. If it wasn't for this nexus, there would be no cypherpunks, and the esoteric technicalities of modern cryptography would be of interest to few besides professional security consultants/programmers and obscure academic types. It's useful to explore the wider context of relevance occasionally, if only to gain perspective (As long as we can avoid another Ayn Rand or Noam Chomsky pissing match...). ObCrypto: People limited solely to diskless terminals for their internet access will be second class netizens. They would be less likely to really appreciate and comprehend the issues surrounding online privacy and cryptography, and they would be less able to take action on these issues even if they wanted to. - -Michael -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: 2.6.2 iQCVAwUBML1jZtGJlWF+GPx9AQGhcAP/WL7+Unoxn51A2QlCRRSsS8wXdi7/UuFz 3JSC49VJLU7KFWEqTwhIV657JubChxUjN1mxymSDbaoROWcyPn8AlEVuLD2Y/NcW SYYCAy1nJWh8H2yFAz1aW2XToG09V/XrO/hhcN8WyM8agJoYcVxdCmRuC/6bhPnG qBcMn7amGnE= =/Qbk -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
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