IP: Y2K- a futurist view: Society not resilient enough to withstand
From: "A.C."
Watershed for life as we know it By JOHN MACLEAY
29 Sep '98
ROBERT Theobald is a futurist who sees the year 2000 computer glitch=20 as a potential watershed for global civilisation.=20
Theobald, a British-born economist based in the US, says the year=20 2000 - or Y2K - computer bug will have as big an impact on the global=20 economy as the oil shocks of the 1970s.=20
On a more sobering note, Y2K is already shaping up as the biggest=20 technological fix in history. It will cost the US alone at least=20 $US600 billion ($1034 billion) and possibly $US1 trillion - double=20 what it spent on the Vietnam War when adjusted for inflation.=20
Theobald, who for 37 years has advocated the need for change to a=20 more sustainable economy, says Y2K just might be that catalyst, given=20 the "inertia" of the current system.=20
But he says that how Y2K will change our lives will depend largely on=20 the degree to which governments and individuals prepare themselves=20 between now and December 31 next year.=20
"For me, Y2K is only the beginning of the shocks that are going to=20 come as we begin to realise that technology does not resolve all of=20 our problems," Theobald says.=20
Theobald, who is in Australia to promote his latest book, Reworking=20 Success, says that if handled successfully, Y2K could lead to a more=20 decentralised economy and political decision-making process.=20
However, he warns that our present economic and institutional=20 structures have milked communities and individuals of their=20 resilience to handle major and abrupt change such as Y2K may unleash.=20
Theobald says community resilience will determine whether Y2K is=20 treated as a natural disaster or whether it will be seen as another=20 technological blunder by those above.=20
Theobald's big fear is that large-scale anger caused by Y2K=20 disruptions could lead to a breakdown in social order, especially in=20 the larger US cities, which will be the hardest areas to organise for=20 Y2K at a neighbourhood and sub-neighbourhood level.=20
"I believe the core issue on (handling) this Y2K thing is to start at=20 the sub-neighbourhood level so that you can say you know who will=20 need things.=20
"If we don't do anything, the chances of a major breakdown in public=20 order, which has already been seen in Indonesia and elsewhere around=20 the world in one way or another, is a very real threat.=20
"And without far more intelligence being put in to handle this, I'd=20 say a global slump is a very real possibility, and a significant=20 collapse is not off the cards either."=20
However, while Theobald canvasses the dark side of the millennium=20 glitch, he also dissociates himself from the so-called cyber- survivalists. These are people, mostly in the US, who are prepared to=20 ride out the Y2K bug by stocking food and hiding away in isolation.=20
Theobald has been putting his words into action by working closely=20 with his local neighbourhood in Spokane, Washington State, on Y2K=20 preparedness.=20
His efforts were recognised last year by the Institute for Social=20 Innovation in Britain, which awarded him a prize.=20
The institute's other recipient was former computer programmer Paloma=20 O'Reilly, founder of the Cassandra Project, a community-based Y2K=20 preparedness group that has been examining and preparing for self- sufficiency in all areas that could be millennium-glitch affected,=20 including power, water and food distribution.=20
"What we do as individuals, as societies and communities over the=20 next few months will make an enormous difference to how serious Y2K=20 becomes," says Theobald.=20
"This is a fairly established position. I'm one person among many.=20
"When you consider the very well established companies and the=20 enormous sums of money being spent on this, what I say is not out of=20 the ordinary.=20
"But what disturbs most is that the dominant message in our culture=20 at the moment is not about Y2K preparedness."=20
Boston Top Stories Spotlight Boston October 2, 1998 =A0=20 Texas city stages test of `Y2K' doomsday effects=20 By Chris Newton/Associated Press=20 A cold front was icing streets and causing power outages. A riot at a=20 prison outside town was using up valuable police resources. To make=20 matters worse, the 911 emergency system was broken. The nightmare scene didn't really happen, but Lubbock officials=20 imagined it did Wednesday as part of a test of how the city could=20 react if, as many fear, computers driving vital public systems fail=20 to recognize the year 2000. The west Texas city of more than 180,000 people didn't test any=20 equipment but rather conducted a drill to see how city personnel=20 responded to mock crises. It was called the first such citywide=20 simulation of the problem in the nation. City manager Bob Cass, scheduled to testify about the experience=20 Friday before a U.S. Senate committee, said the clear lesson was that=20 cities risk being blindsided if they don't work on contingency plans=20 for the worst-case ``Y2K'' scenario. ``This is the one disaster that we know exactly when it could occur,=20 but it's also the one disaster that we have no idea how bad it will=20 be,'' Cass said. ``One thing that sticks out in my mind is that there=20 is the potential for so many things to go wrong all at once.'' Some computer scientists fear the Y2K bug could cause water systems=20 to shut down, traffic lights to go haywire or life-support systems to=20 fail. When a Chrysler plant ran a Y2K test on a computer system, it=20 was discovered that security doors were stuck closed. The Lubbock experiment coupled such effects with mock emergencies=20 that would make for an extra-busy night at the police department. ``Our simulation took into account things like slick roads and=20 traffic accidents that would be standard fare for New Year's Eve,''=20 Cass said. The test was essentially a role-playing game. Exactly what or when the ``disasters'' would occur was kept secret=20 until the drills started Wednesday evening. The only thing announced=20 was a four-hour window, starting at 5 p.m., when anything could=20 happen. Test conductors sent e-mail messages to city officials notifying them=20 of mock natural disasters or failed systems. Emergency officials,=20 including police, fire and utility workers, then had to react. A=20 system was set up to judge response times. At emergency management headquarters, officials frantically practiced=20 deploying police officers to deal with problems and posted red flags=20 on a giant city map to highlight emergency areas. The illusion was made complete with reporters summoned for ``news=20 conferences'' and mock reports from a National Weather Service=20 official. As the drill began, officials were told the city's 911 emergency=20 system had failed. Officials quickly switched over to a county system=20 and broadcast two new police and fire department emergency numbers on=20 television. Cass said city workers improvised well when unexpected problems arose. ``We pulled together and acted like a team,'' he said. ``A lot of=20 these agencies aren't used to dealing with each other like they had=20 to tonight.'' Mayor Windy Sitton said the test revealed that Lubbock needs to study=20 how to better respond to natural gas shortages. When fake gas outages=20 left hundreds of homes without heat, officials had to devise a plan=20 to set up shelters in the parts of town that still had power. ------------------------------------------------------------------ The Kansas City Star=20 Y2k Nervous world seeks ways to exterminate the year 2000 bug By DAVID HAYES and FINN BULLERS - Staff Writers Date: 09/26/98 22:15 Marilyn Allison has spent the last three years making sure computers=20 at Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City don't fail after the=20 ball drops on New Year's Eve 1999.=20 Allison is confident Blue Cross has the problem well in hand. And she=20 thinks most of Kansas City does, too.=20 But she still is planning to sock away enough food, water, cash and=20 firewood to last a couple of weeks in case everything does go haywire=20 on Jan. 1, 2000.=20 There's the rub of the year 2000 bug, a glitch that could cause some=20 computers, machinery, medical equipment, utilities and VCRs to quit=20 working, or spit out bad information, when the 1900s become the 2000s. Nobody really knows what's going to happen.=20 The problem stems from computer systems and billions of embedded=20 computer chips that might read the "00" in a computer program as 1900=20 rather than 2000.=20 Edward Yardeni, one of the nation's leading economists, forecasts a=20 70 percent chance of global recession because of the bug. Another=20 leading forecaster, David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's, doesn't expect significant disruption. He even contends the=20 resulting fallout might be fun -- if we keep a sense of humor about=20 it.=20 But everyone acknowledges something is coming down the tracks, said=20 Leon Kappelman, a university professor and author who is spending=20 much of his time these days talking about the year 2000 problem.=20 "The uncertainty is whether it's a locomotive or a bicycle,"=20 Kappelman said. "And it's difficult to get definitive evidence."=20 Until now there hasn't been much information to rely on. Some credit=20 cards with "00" expiration dates have been rejected. A 104-year-old=20 Minnesota woman was invited to report to kindergarten, and a computer=20 docked an Olathe couple $17,800 for insurance premiums.=20 But those are just scattered hints of the trouble to come. The real=20 warning lies in our growing reliance on vast networks of technology -- a single misfire in the wrong place can sabotage lives in far-flung=20 places.=20 For example, when just one satellite malfunctioned in May, millions=20 of pagers and automated teller machines went out for two days. An ice=20 storm in eastern Canada knocked out part of the country's power grid=20 and shut off power to millions of people for more than a week.=20 Think if all of that -- and more -- happened on one day: Jan. 1, 2000, a Saturday.=20 American businesses rely on computers to do almost everything. They=20 run huge manufacturing machines, answer telephones, pay employees and=20 control alarm systems.=20 Federal government computers track airliners, generate Social=20 Security checks, and control satellites in space and missiles on the=20 ground. Cities use computers to run traffic lights and dispatch=20 police officers.=20 Utilities use them to operate water and sewage systems. Grocery=20 stores use them to keep track of stock and place orders.=20 Even more important than the software that runs those computers are=20 the tiny, embedded computer chips buried in the guts of technological=20 gadgets, heavy machinery, airliners and even granddad's pacemaker.=20 There are 40 billion of the chips, most of them hard or impossible to=20 test, said Dave Hall, an expert with the CABA Corp. in Oak Brook, Ill. =20 Estimates vary on how many of those chips will fail. Hall says 1=20 percent. Others say failures could go as high as 10 percent -- and=20 even higher in some medical equipment.=20 Even a 1 percent failure rate means 400 million chips would fail.=20 Kappelman, the University of North Texas professor, thinks the=20 interrelationships between all those elements will cause serious=20 disruptions.=20 For instance, it's unlikely that America's electric utilities will be=20 caught unprepared on the last New Year's Eve of the 1900s. In fact,=20 an industry report released last week said utility problems seemed to=20 be fewer -- and easier to fix -- than expected.=20 But if only a few plants shut down on Jan. 1, 2000, the strain on the=20 rest of the power grid could trip a cascading failure that causes=20 widespread brownouts or blackouts.=20 "This will change the way we see the world," Kappelman said. "We'll=20 see our dependence on technology in a whole new way."=20 The fix is in?=20 Even if embedded chips are hard to check, the software problem=20 shouldn't seem too difficult to fix -- on the surface, at least.=20 For decades, computers have been programmed to recognize dates using=20 six digits: today's date is 09/27/98. When the calendar rolls over at=20 midnight on New Year's Eve 1999, computers that haven't been taught=20 differently will see the year as 1900 or some other date entirely. If=20 they work at all.=20 So solve the problem. Add a couple of numbers to the programming code. No big deal, right?=20 It's become a very big deal. For Sprint Corp., that small fix means=20 programmers must pore over 80 million lines of code. The fix will=20 take two years.=20 Big business thinks the problem is so significant that fixing it has=20 become a big business.=20 Sprint Corp. is spending $200 million on year 2000 repairs; Hallmark=20 Cards, $25 million; Blue Cross in Kansas City, $25 million; UMB Bank,=20 $22 million; Yellow Corp., $17 million. Johnson County taxpayers will=20 pay $17.2 million to fix that county's year 2000 problems.=20 All told, the fix in the Kansas City area will easily top the $400=20 million mark. Worldwide, the total is estimated at $300 billion to=20 $600 billion. Entire companies have sprouted just to deal with the year 2000 bug.=20 More than 140 public companies, ranging from Acceler8 Technology to=20 Zmax Corp., are touting their solutions.=20 Where there's a problem, there's a lawyer. Law firms have established=20 special teams just to handle potential litigation from the year 2000=20 problem.=20 Companies that cater to survivalists are hawking canned or dried food=20 and survival gear to those with year 2000 angst.=20 That type of hype is spreading across the Internet on hundreds of=20 year 2000 Web sites. A few of the most radical year 2000 worriers=20 already have moved to rural areas to get away from what they think=20 will be urban chaos when the lights go out and the food supply chain=20 breaks down.=20 Cynthia Ratcliffe of Pleasant Valley, a disabled former office worker, can't afford to move. But she's worried.=20 "I'm figuring at least six months of everything being messed up,"=20 said Ratcliffe, who's stocking up on canned food and kerosene lamps.=20 She's worried that those who have prepared will become targets for=20 those who haven't.=20 "I'm contemplating whether I should get some 2-by-4s to put bars over=20 the doors and windows," Ratcliffe said. "I'm trying to decide whether=20 I should buy a weapon."=20 One expert sees self-interest driving much of the panic.=20 Consultants benefit from the year 2000 fear that helps pay their=20 skyrocketing fees, said Nicholas Zvegintzov, president of Software=20 Management Network of New York and a programmer for 35 years.=20 Politicians also benefit from a puffed-up problem they can fix=20 without much effort.=20 "Unfortunately, there's no political clout in common sense,"=20 Zvegintzov said.=20 Sen. Bob Bennett, a Utah Republican who coordinates the Senate's year=20 2000 efforts, isn't doing anything to add to the national calm.=20 In a July 15 speech to the National Press Club in Washington, Bennett=20 told journalists to expect electrical brownouts and regional=20 blackouts. He predicts some banks will go bankrupt and some water=20 systems will break down.=20 Such alarm might actually be good, said Heidi Hooper, year 2000=20 director for the Information Technology Association of America. She=20 said the general public could use a serious wake-up call.=20 "These huge Fortune 100 companies are spending, collectively,=20 billions and billions of dollars. I don't think that's hype," she=20 said. "They are not going to spend that money for no reason. They=20 know, bottom line, that if they are going to make money they have to=20 stay in business."=20 But for some businesses to stay afloat, other businesses will have to=20 drown, she said.=20 "What we need, unfortunately, is examples of failures," Hooper said.=20 "That's going to start soon enough in 1999. And the private sector is=20 not going to share that information, so it's going to have to be up=20 to the federal government to step in."=20 But the federal government is in no shape to provide leadership.=20 Overall, one congressman gave the federal government a "D" on its=20 most recent year 2000 preparedness report card, up from the "F" it=20 received in June.=20 "This is not a grade you take home to your parents," said Rep. Steve=20 Horn, a California Republican and chairman of the House subcommittee=20 on government management of information and technology.=20 Horn predicts the government will not be able to fix a substantial=20 number of "mission critical" systems by 2000. And the price tag to=20 fix the 24 governmental departments surveyed is $6.3 billion, up $1=20 billion from the estimate given by the Office of Management and=20 Budget.=20 "The executive branch has a deadline that cannot be extended," Horn=20 said. "There is no margin for error."=20 Closer to home, Kansas City is requiring all city departments to=20 submit contingency plans by October for dealing with the year 2000=20 problem.=20 What to look for: Will traffic lights work? Will prisoners be=20 released early if a computer mistakenly thinks an inmate has been=20 jailed for more than 100 years? Will fire trucks start, and what is=20 the backup plan if they don't?=20 "You don't want to overreact, and we're not," said John Franklin,=20 assistant city manager. "But there is a real issue here for public=20 managers that's kind of scary."=20 Elsewhere, Water District No. 1 of Johnson County will spend $1.56=20 million to fix 4,109 computer programs and 701,021 lines of code by=20 the end of next summer. The district says the job is 75 percent=20 complete, and General Manager Byron Johnson said he was confident the=20 district would be prepared.=20 But experts aren't prepared to declare victory.=20 "My whole theme from day one is we need answers," said Yardeni, the=20 Yale economist and managing director of Deutsche Bank Securities.=20 "I'm not trying to foment panic. I'm not trying to create revolution.=20 But you have to be a naive optimist to think things are going to be=20 pretty relaxed Jan. 1, 2000."=20 ********************************************** To subscribe or unsubscribe, email: majordomo@majordomo.pobox.com with the message: (un)subscribe ignition-point email@address ********************************************** www.telepath.com/believer **********************************************
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Vladimir Z. Nuri