What I do is the following: I go to the Ladbroke's and offer to pay the gamblers not $6, but $6.01 if Dole wins. Being somewhat rational, these traders gamblers see a better deal than Ladbroke's offers, and give me their $1 bills. This is very simple. I take their $1 bills and run to "William Hill", where I take another side of the bet. In particular, I buy $6.01 / $10.00 bets for each dollar that I receive. The remaining money $1(1-6.01/10) I simply take to my bank.

Ah. If you can exploit\\\\\\\ provide arbitrage services for these folks, go ahead. You'd probably need to offer them $7-8 to deal with the difference in reputation between you and Ladbroke's, but assuming you can get customers and nobody breaks your legs, you do win. One reason the market isn't more efficient is that it's only being played once, and the odds are pretty lopsided, since Dole really has no chance. What's more interesting is that Ladbroke's aren't doing this themselves - if they're not. In a repeated game, or a closer one, the odds would probably tend to be the same at both houses. # Thanks; Bill # Bill Stewart, +1-415-442-2215 stewarts@ix.netcom.com # You can get PGP outside the US at ftp.ox.ac.uk Imagine if three million people voted for somebody they _knew_, and the politicians had to count them all.