The End of Politics
The End of Politics Every 500 years or so Western history seems to reach a turning point: the founding of democracy (Athens, c. 500 B.C.), the death to Christ, the fall of the Roman Empire and beginning of the Dark Ages (c. 500 A.D.), the ascendancy of the Catholic Church and beginning to the Middle Ages (c. 1000 A.D.) and the Renaissance (c. 1500 A.D.). These points of inflection are often evidenced by a dramatic raise in corruption and lack of faith in institutions. At the start of the 16th century few could have imagined a secular Europe. Though its rampant decadence and debauchery was widely known, the Catholic Church permeated almost every aspect of life and its economic tentacles denominated all commerce. Yet by 1600 many city states had thrown off the ecclesiastical yolk and Protestantism was born. With the near constant stream of corruption revelations and the inability of the political process within the nation-states to deal with important social issues, it isn't hard to see the reflections in current events. Many claim our nation has diverged very far from its founding roots and, through expansive Supreme Court, Executive and Legislative Branch actions, the Feds have laid claim to almost every facet of American life not specifically nailed down in the Constitution (and many we thought were). Two turning points were catalyzed by military technology (metal armor and gunpowder) which dramatically altered the economic scale and payback for violence. We may be nearing the end of another such military technology cycle, which for the last 200 years favored those states which could muster the largest economies for warfare. With the fall of the Soviet Union it is obvious that democracies were able to extort more GNP through taxes than the communist could through outright state ownership of property. However, the cost of producing weapons of mass destruction (especially chemical and biological) has fallen dramatically and is now within reach not only of small nations but increasingly individuals. If one accepts that the wielding of such power has been instrumental in shaping world politics then the conclusion is almost inescapable that dominance by nation-states will be on the wane. The last turning point was also catalyzed by information technology: the moveable type printing press, the first mass-production technology. By 1500 hundreds of European printing presses had churned out over 20 million books. Early expectations were that the press would reinforce the use of Latin and the Church, but most Europeans were monoglot and few authors could compose satisfactory new Latin works. The rest, as they say, is history. Many have compared the Internet with the press and it's not unfair to characterize it as nothing short of an information revolution. The victory of the Western democracies over their Communist opponents was a political watershed. With no Soviet bogeyman to wave in front of voters, and the need to maintain their self-importance, politicians have had to reach into the bag for new villains. They have invoked the new Four Horseman (terrorists, pornographers, money-launderers and drugs-dealers ) as a threat with which only they can effectively deal. Only they can't and they know it. These issues are either outside their control, no matter what restrictive laws they pass, or of their own making. The Internet will play a key part in disintermediating governments and markets. To escape heavy regulatory burdens, significant information-based business, investments and individuals will become jurisdiction-less. With their ability to regulate and tax Internet commerce and content denied a major source of revenue will evaporate which be which cannot be replaced by sales and property taxes. This will spell the end of mass wealth redistribution and signal a massive global down-sizing of government. As the power of the nation-states to dictate world affairs slips, look for an eclipse of democracy and with it politics as we know it. Western thought is so infused with politics that few can imagine society without. Yet politics in the modern sense, the preoccupation with controlling and rationalizing the power of the state, is mainly a modern invention. It will end with the modern world just as the tangle of feudal duties and obligations which engrossed the attentions of people in the Middle Ages ended with the Middle Ages. --Steve
Tim May <tcmay@got.net> wrote:
At 3:08 PM -0700 9/1/97, Steve Schear wrote: The End of Politics
Every 500 years or so Western history seems to reach a turning point: the founding of democracy (Athens, c. 500 B.C.), the death to Christ, the fall of the Roman Empire and beginning of the Dark Ages (c. 500 A.D.), the ascendancy of the Catholic Church and beginning to the Middle Ages (c. 1000 A.D.) and the Renaissance (c. 1500 A.D.).
I sure don't buy any analysis that starts with this kind of "periodicity analysis" (Fourier analysis of history?).
No doubt, with so few data points one cannot build a mathematically compelling case.
Just for starters, these dates are highly arbitrary. The start of Roman influence in a major way was 100 B,C.
It may be somewhat self-serving but in light of the past few hundred years history, few (except Italians) would see the founding of Rome as significant as the invention of democracy.
or so, the death of that Jesus guy was a minor event (the real event was the rise of the Church, in Rome, during the next few centuries,
I think you'd get some major disagreements with that one.
and esp. with Constantine).
Many historians do not see Constantine's empire as truly the continuation of the Roman Empire per se, but that of the church (an event which as you point out began with Jesus).
And the "Dark Ages" were misnamed.
True, but relatively unimportant.
I was talking more about the The Norman Conquest was 1066,
Yes, enabled by amoured cavelry which by that date had transformed warfare. the Crusades were
circa 1150-1250 (I forget the exact dates), and so on.
And the Enlightenment, c. 1700. And the American and French Revolutions. And the Industrial Age. And a huge amount of history, ups and downs, just in the last century. The dates you pick, -500, 0, 500, 1000, 1500 are artificial, selected to match a theory based on 500-year cycles.
Sure, but almost any attempt to impose a large-scale structure on history is likely to come under such critcism, just as theories to explain the evolution of the universe's large-scale structure can be shot full of holes by 'local' anomolies (the exception proves the rule). If one accepts that the socio- politico- economic history may have chaotic aspects (e.g., Asimov's pyscho-history) then large-scale structures may be fleetingly exist. The true test is whether such attempts help explain or predict. We'll have to wait a while for that ;-) --Steve
At 3:08 PM -0700 9/1/97, Steve Schear wrote:
The End of Politics
Every 500 years or so Western history seems to reach a turning point: the founding of democracy (Athens, c. 500 B.C.), the death to Christ, the fall of the Roman Empire and beginning of the Dark Ages (c. 500 A.D.), the ascendancy of the Catholic Church and beginning to the Middle Ages (c. 1000 A.D.) and the Renaissance (c. 1500 A.D.).
I sure don't buy any analysis that starts with this kind of "periodicity analysis" (Fourier analysis of history?). Just for starters, these dates are highly arbitrary. The start of Roman influence in a major way was 100 B,C. or so, the death of that Jesus guy was a minor event (the real event was the rise of the Church, in Rome, during the next few centuries, and esp. with Constantine). And the "Dark Ages" were misnamed. Also, during these so-called Dark Ages, we saw Charlemagne, and, of course, Mohmammed. Circa 800 A.D. The Norman Conquest was 1066, the Crusades were circa 1150-1250 (I forget the exact dates), and so on. And the Enlightenment, c. 1700. And the American and French Revolutions. And the Industrial Age. And a huge amount of history, ups and downs, just in the last century. The dates you pick, -500, 0, 500, 1000, 1500 are artificial, selected to match a theory based on 500-year cycles. Kind of puts a crimp on the "500 year theory" doesn't it? One could just as easily write about a 400-year cycle with the last crest in 1800 (American and French Revolutions, etc.) and the next one in 2200. And it would still be bullshit. No offense meant to Steve, but this kind of analysis ranks up there with astrology, phrenology, and aptical foddering. --Tim May There's something wrong when I'm a felon under an increasing number of laws. Only one response to the key grabbers is warranted: "Death to Tyrants!" ---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---- Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@got.net 408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA | knowledge, reputations, information markets, Higher Power: 2^1398269 | black markets, collapse of governments. "National borders aren't even speed bumps on the information superhighway."
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