Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century
Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century 1. The United States will experience a significant economic recession/crisis very close to the turn of the Century. 2. As the large pool of young people born in the early 1990s become teenagers and young adults, there will be a dramatic increase in violent crime around the year 2005-2010. 3. America will experience sporadic civil disorders/riots in many of its urban areas during the next 10-15 years -- much of it related to racial/ethnic problems. 4. Terrorist acts by "fringe"/special issue groups will increase at a significant rate -- becoming a major law enforcement and security problem. 5. As faith in the criminal justice system declines, there will be a rise in vigilante-based incidents where citizens take the enforcement of crime problems into their own hands. 6. Much of middle- and upper-class America will take a "retreatist" attitude and move into private high-security communities located in suburban or rural areas. Because of technological advances, many companies and corporations will also move out of the urban environments as well. 7. Due to many of the predictions listed above, much of law enforcement and security in the 21st Century will become privatized and contractual. Traditional law enforcement agencies will primarily serve urban and rural communities. 8. Law enforcement will evolve into two major and divergent roles: traditional law enforcement and a more specialized military tactical role to deal with the growing urban violance and terrorist incidents. 9. Significant violence and unrest will plague our nation's prisons. Major prison riots will become a regular occurrence. 10. With the decrease of the possibility of major global warfare, the United States military will take on an increased domestic "peace-keeping" role with America's law enforcement agencies. John Young wrote:
Tim asks:
Freeh and Company continue to mumble about "meeting the legitmate needs of law enforcement." What can they be speaking of? ... Obviously his side is contemplating domestic crypto restrictions.
Threat of terrorism will be the impetus for applying national security restrictions domestically, for relaxing cold war limitations on spying on Americans, for dissolving barriers between law enforcement and military/intelligence agencies.
Technical means for access to encrypted data will probably come first in communications, then to stored material. There will be an agreement for increased CALEA wiretap funding, which is what the two cellular and wired suits against the FBI intend, (paralleling what the hardware and software industries want from federal buyers of security products).
This will provide the infrastructural regime for the gov to monitor and store domestic traffic as NSA does for the global, using the same technology (NSA may provide service to domestic LEA as it now does for other gov customers for intel).
Other access will come through hardware and software for computers, paralleling technology developed for telecomm tapping, tracking and monitoring.
Most probably through overt/covert features of microprocessors and OS's, as reported recently of Wintel and others, but also probably with special chips for DSP and software for modular design -- why build from scratch when these handy kits are available.
As noted here, the features will appear first as optional, in response to demand from commerce, from parents, from responsible institutions, to meet public calls for protection, for privacy, for combating threats to the American people.
Like wiretap law, use of the features for preventative snooping will initially require a court order, as provided in several of the crypto legislative proposals.
Like the wiretap orders, gradually there will be no secret court refusals for requests to use the technology in the national interest.
A publicity campain will proclaims that citizens with nothing to hide will have nothing to fear. Assurance of safety will be transparent, no clicks on the line. In a digital world, home-office devices will send lifestyle data to the device manufacturers over the always monitoring transparental Net.
Personal privacy will evaporate almost unnoticeably, as with the tv remote control, cp/defcon/bar brag, telephone, fax and forever-lovers pillowtalk.
nnburk wrote:
Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century
1. The United States will experience a significant economic recession/crisis very close to the turn of the Century.
I see this as well and agree with it. The recent stock market rocking back and forth is a sign that something sucks, and sucks badly. Y2K will of course make this into a bigger horror.
2. As the large pool of young people born in the early 1990s become teenagers and young adults, there will be a dramatic increase in violent crime around the year 2005-2010.
I don't necessarily see this. What do you base this on? Outside of where I live, there is an elementary school. Young kids these days are made to wear UNIFORMS and carry ID's and can only go to school with see through bags and must pass through metal detectors and/or be frisked. Further, one of the local newspapers (Times? Daily News? Post?) here in NYC had some story about how the city school security will be taken over by the police department, effectively turning schools into jails. IMHO, this won't turn out delinquents, this will turn out slaves who are used to being treated as slaves, are used to having no freedoms and don't expect them; they'll live without privacy and they'll like it. Those are your kids America: sheep! Mindless slaves rarely rebel; unless you take away their MTV and their Sony Playstations I doubt this.
3. America will experience sporadic civil disorders/riots in many of its urban areas during the next 10-15 years -- much of it related to racial/ethnic problems.
Doubt it. Unless they can't get food or money, or IF there are massive blackouts they will riot, but will do so to break into stores and loot. (Speaking based on LA riots and riots here in NYC about a decade or two ago when power failed.)
4. Terrorist acts by "fringe"/special issue groups will increase at a significant rate -- becoming a major law enforcement and security problem.
Okay, this is likely.
5. As faith in the criminal justice system declines, there will be a rise in vigilante-based incidents where citizens take the enforcement of crime problems into their own hands.
The rest of your prediction sounds like you've watched Robocop a few times too many and actually BELIEVED it! :) Care to back it up with reasons?
6. Much of middle- and upper-class America will take a "retreatist" attitude and move into private high-security communities located in suburban or rural areas. Because of technological advances, many companies and corporations will also move out of the urban environments as well.
7. Due to many of the predictions listed above, much of law enforcement and security in the 21st Century will become privatized and contractual. Traditional law enforcement agencies will primarily serve urban and rural communities.
8. Law enforcement will evolve into two major and divergent roles: traditional law enforcement and a more specialized military tactical role to deal with the growing urban violance and terrorist incidents.
9. Significant violence and unrest will plague our nation's prisons. Major prison riots will become a regular occurrence.
10. With the decrease of the possibility of major global warfare, the United States military will take on an increased domestic "peace-keeping" role with America's law enforcement agencies.
-- =====================================Kaos=Keraunos=Kybernetos============== .+.^.+.| Sunder |Prying open my 3rd eye. So good to see |./|\. ..\|/..|sunder@sundernet.com|you once again. I thought you were |/\|/\ <--*-->| ------------------ |hiding, and you thought that I had run |\/|\/ ../|\..| "A toast to Odin, |away chasing the tail of dogma. I opened|.\|/. .+.v.+.|God of screwdrivers"|my eye and there we were.... |..... ======================= http://www.sundernet.com ==========================
Sunder wrote:
nnburk wrote:
Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century ... 2. As the large pool of young people born in the early 1990s become teenagers and young adults, there will be a dramatic increase in violent crime around the year 2005-2010.
I don't necessarily see this. What do you base this on?
Um, actually, not _my_ predictions. Source was local LEA, obtained by them from some nameless seminar. (Sorry. Should have made that point clear earlier.)
5. As faith in the criminal justice system declines, there will be a rise in vigilante-based incidents where citizens take the enforcement of crime problems into their own hands.
The rest of your prediction sounds like you've watched Robocop a few times too many and actually BELIEVED it! :) Care to back it up with reasons?
See above. <grin> Actually, haven't seen Robocop!
Good post. The war is about to be joined. At 7:34 PM -0700 9/14/98, nnburk wrote:
Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century
1. The United States will experience a significant economic recession/crisis very close to the turn of the Century.
Agreed. The chickens are coming home to roost. America will get what it deserves. I figure the Y2K problem will be the most significant trigger event.
2. As the large pool of young people born in the early 1990s become teenagers and young adults, there will be a dramatic increase in violent crime around the year 2005-2010.
See "A Clockwork Orange" for details. Today's Ebonics kids will be tomorrow's Droogs.
3. America will experience sporadic civil disorders/riots in many of its urban areas during the next 10-15 years -- much of it related to racial/ethnic problems.
The inner cities will burn. 10 million ethnics will wipe themselves out. White America (and Asian America, who are honorary whites, by the University of California's admissions standards) will cluck, but will watch the inner cities burn themselves out with only a "I told you so" attitude. Miami, Chicago, Washington, LA, New York, Atlanta, New Orleans, and a dozen other cities will be like Berlin after the war.
4. Terrorist acts by "fringe"/special issue groups will increase at a significant rate -- becoming a major law enforcement and security problem.
Freedom fighters, not terrorists.
5. As faith in the criminal justice system declines, there will be a rise in vigilante-based incidents where citizens take the enforcement of crime problems into their own hands.
Local justice, not vigilantism. OJ and You Know Who hanged side by side. Several million welfare thieves given the choice of hard labor for 20 or so years, to repay the money they stole, or a bullet to the head. Their choice.
6. Much of middle- and upper-class America will take a "retreatist" attitude and move into private high-security communities located in suburban or rural areas. Because of technological advances, many companies and corporations will also move out of the urban environments as well.
Yes, more and more of my wealthy friends are doing this. Most of them are moving to the country, where defenses are more naturally provided, and not necessarily moving to gate communities (which are actually quite indefensible when the welfare addicts and gangbangers start rioting and dancing.)
7. Due to many of the predictions listed above, much of law enforcement and security in the 21st Century will become privatized and contractual. Traditional law enforcement agencies will primarily serve urban and rural communities.
"Snow Crash."
8. Law enforcement will evolve into two major and divergent roles: traditional law enforcement and a more specialized military tactical role to deal with the growing urban violance and terrorist incidents.
Has already happened. The National Police Force is already mobilized against religious groups which are deemed unacceptable, pace the Branch Davidians.
9. Significant violence and unrest will plague our nation's prisons. Major prison riots will become a regular occurrence.
Burn the prisons with the inmates locked inside. Then simply execute those who commit the most serious crimes.
10. With the decrease of the possibility of major global warfare, the United States military will take on an increased domestic "peace-keeping" role with America's law enforcement agencies.
Posse comitatus is already becoming a moot point. The Army will be patrolling the streets within a few years, probably coterminous with Y2K problems and the resulting martial law. Militias and freedom fighters will have to start hitting U.S. military installations. Many will die. Eventually the military will abandon the Washington elite and will join the freedom fighters. Ten million politicians and welfare thieves will be put up against the wall. --Tim May (This space left blank pending determ. of acceptability to the gov't.) ---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---- Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, ComSec 3DES: 831-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA | knowledge, reputations, information markets, Licensed Ontologist | black markets, collapse of governments.
Tim May wrote:
Good post. The war is about to be joined.
Thank you. My only regret is that I do not have a source. The material was provided by a local LEA from an unnamed "seminar."
At 7:34 PM -0700 9/14/98, nnburk wrote:
4. Terrorist acts by "fringe"/special issue groups will increase at a significant rate -- becoming a major law enforcement and security problem.
Freedom fighters, not terrorists.
Yes. But I suppose like beauty, this is in the eye of the beholder. The victor writes the history books.
10. With the decrease of the possibility of major global warfare, the United States military will take on an increased domestic "peace-keeping" role with America's law enforcement agencies.
Posse comitatus is already becoming a moot point. The Army will be patrolling the streets within a few years, probably coterminous with Y2K problems and the resulting martial law.
I doubt we have long to wait. They know it's coming too.
At 10:22 AM -0700 9/15/98, Sunder wrote:
nnburk wrote:
Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century
1. The United States will experience a significant economic recession/crisis very close to the turn of the Century.
I see this as well and agree with it. The recent stock market rocking back and forth is a sign that something sucks, and sucks badly.
Actually, I think much too much is being made of utterly _tiny_ percentage moves in the stock market. The "Big Crash" a couple of weeks ago was the "second largest point loss in the the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average." Ah, but it was only #58 in terms of percentage. And so on. The "rocking back and forth" is well within historical standards. In fact, it's much less than we've seen at other times in the past 25 years. --Tim May (This space left blank pending determ. of acceptability to the gov't.) ---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---- Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, ComSec 3DES: 831-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA | knowledge, reputations, information markets, Licensed Ontologist | black markets, collapse of governments.
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