Re: russia_1.html
At 3:01 AM -0700 10/8/97, Peter Trei wrote:
I don't know if it's comforting or worrying knowing that these devices degrade - any in the hands of terrorists have a limited time that they are a threat, but that fact may pressure a terrorist to 'use it or lose it'.
What I have heard about these suitcase nukes is that they yield about 1-2 kilotons. I know of no technical reason for them to be thermonuclear devices. As such, the decay of tritium would not seem to affect them. (They will still need a source of neutrons, which might go bad faster than the plutonium/U235.) I feel very little comfort. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bill Frantz | Internal surveillance | Periwinkle -- Consulting (408)356-8506 | helped make the USSR the | 16345 Englewood Ave. frantz@netcom.com | nation it is today. | Los Gatos, CA 95032, USA
I'd fear an "anthrax bomb" a lot more than a 2 KT suitcase nuke. (If I lived in a crowded target zone, aka a soft target, which I don't.) [snip]
Amen.
By comparison, anthrax bacillus is relatively easy to manufacture, and aerosol dispersion could kill hundreds of thousands or more before even being detected. Aerosolized dispersion in Washington or Manhattan could be a far worse human and infrastructure disaster than a suitcase nuke.
I expect this sort of attack to occur fairly soon.
I'm pretty surprised that someone has posted practical steps for obtaining, culturing. preparation and manufacture of inexpensive aerosol generators. --Steve
Buenos dias, folks. Just got back from Chile... At 13:28 -0700 10/8/97, Tim May wrote:
(As is well-known, or should be, folks survived Hiroshima and Nagasaki as close as 400 meters from ground zero. And they were both roughly 20 KT nukes. Inasmuch as the blast effects scale as the cube root of megatonnage, a 2 KT blast might be expected to be survivable as close as a few hundred meters or even less. Of course, some will die even out at a 1000 meters, but not many.)
I'm sitting here in my office between 17th and 18th streets just north of the White House (which is at 16th and Pennsylvania) trying to calculate blast radius. I suspect that if I'm in my office, I _could_ survive the radiation -- if Tim's figures are correct. It would help, of course, if anyone bombing the White House would do it from the _Mall_ side of the building (the south side) rather than the north side, which would be about four blocks closer to me. But I'm more worried about the shock wave and firestorm that would follow such a blast. I'm on the eighth floor of a large office building. I figure I don't stand much of a chance.
By comparison, anthrax bacillus is relatively easy to manufacture, and aerosol dispersion could kill hundreds of thousands or more before even being detected. Aerosolized dispersion in Washington or Manhattan could be a far worse human and infrastructure disaster than a suitcase nuke.
It might kill or harm more people, but it doesn't have the viceral, psychological impact of a nuke. Let's hope the terrorists stay away from biowar. At least until I move to West Virginia. -Declan ------------------------- Declan McCullagh Time Inc. The Netly News Network Washington Correspondent http://netlynews.com/
participants (3)
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Bill Frantz -
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Steve Schear