Date: Mon, 18 Apr 1994 10:01:52 -0400 From: "Perry E. Metzger" <perry@snark.imsi.com> tim werner says:

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A man went to the casino with several suitcases full of money and proceeded to play roulette using the progressive betting strategy. Eventually he broke the bank. That's when casinos started imposing house limits on the tables. I don't think this story is apocryphal.

In that case, please provide the time, place, and location -- also provide references to original sources so that we can look it up ourselves.

I took a probability class in the early '70s. The prof explained the progressive betting system and told us the Monte Carlo story. As I recall, it took place in the late 1700s. That's all I can remember, except that he made it clear the system was not guaranteed to work even with no house limit unless you have unlimited funds. Just that someone actually did break the bank at Monte Carlo. I have used the system twice and won both times. The second time I almost got burned when red came up 6 times in a row. On the 7th time I had $320 riding on black and it came up black. My profit on the 7 spins: $5. I was only 1 spin away from the house limit. If it had come up red, I could have bet $640 on black one more time, but that would have been the end. The limit was $1250. I almost switched the $320 to red. After that experience I decided to do some analysis of the system, and finally managed to convince myself of something that I should have known all along: the house limits are set so that you will lose the same amount of money in the long run if you bet progressively as you will if you just bet $5 on black each time. Next time I get to a library I will see if I can find out anything else about it, if you are really interested.

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I don't think the commodity exchanges have the same sort of limits set up.

You don't know anything about the commodities market, then.

That's not entirely true. I do know that the commodities market is another place where you can lose a lot of money real quick. :) Actually, when I said 'the same sort of limits', what I meant was limits that are specifically designed to ensure that you will lose eventually, like they have at casinos. For instance, the house limit at a casino is generally such that you can only double your bet 7 times (e.g., $1250 limit on a $5 table, or $500 limit at a $2 table). Is the same sort of low limit placed on commodities trades? tw