-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA1 At 06:22 PM 9/14/97 +0000, Vin McLellan wrote:
Will Rodger <rodger@worldnet.att.net> declared:
It may make for good copy, but I think it's just fantasy to think
the
administration or their opponents, for that matter, will get what they want this year. Let them swarm. Who cares.
At earliest, August of 1998 before anything passes - and even that is highly optimistic.
Will:
Could you please explain the logic, numbers, and procedural limitations of congressional action that lead you to this conclusion?
Sure. But let me throw in a simple caveat: politics is about people - _all_ predictions of what they will do are subjective.
Why not now?
With one month to go, there are a handful of things taking up time in Congress. The budget is the by far the largest one. Unless a bill is truly close to passing or the leadership has already evinced a desire to move on a bill - and they haven't - it's unlikely it will pass with so little time left. Also, there's no bill in the Senate that goes as far as what's moving in the House; even Dorothy Denning says mandatory KR gives here the heebie-jeebies under current technology. Simply put: crypto is an issue of truly enormous import. Congress will figure that out quickly once everyone has heard both sides of the issue.
Why not between now and August '98?
That's my general estimate of the time needed for a subject that is simply too complex for quick action. Look at telecom reform: it took a decade to do.
Why the deadline/target-date of August '98?
August recess. Getting something done far in advance of it just seems unlikely, but if it were close, the leadership might want to get rid of the issue before recessing. And don't forget that is an election year. No way do you want to go home and campaign with that issue still hanging fire. For that matter, a lot of people blamed crypto's slow progress on the whole of '96. If it isn't settled by August, I think you're definitely into 1999. Now, again, there's no scientific proof that Congress couldn't move before then. This is just my own estimate of the importance of this issue. Declan gets a fifth of whatever he fancies if this thing is settled before August 1998. Cheers. Will -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: PGP for Personal Privacy 5.0 Charset: noconv iQA/AwUBNByeBNZgKT/Hvj9iEQJVbQCeLJeumphJkcuN69HqQOjKRCYNWIAAoMBZ 6XhhObZfYne7rnlOX5Q8BThD =CXs+ -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----