The Winds of War

[Nomen Nescio]

Tim May, a notoriously bad prognosticator (remember the "Thanksgiving
Surprise"?) writes:

> Here's what I expect will happen in the coming weeks:
>
> * a massive military attack on Afghanistan and possibly "rebel bases" in 
> many parts of the Mideast

Yes, most people expect this.

> * a series of hastily-passed new laws restricting communications (with 
> remailers targeted specifically because they by their nature are not in 
> "compliance" with CALEA)

Very unlikely as far as the remailers.  It looks like there may be
some proposals for crypto limitations, but it will be a hard fight.
Every interested party who fought last time will be dusting off their
old arguments.  Cryptographers like Matt Blaze and others have already
made their intentions clear on the crypto mailing list.

> * on the day the war begins, next week or in the weeks thereafter, a 
> series of raids on those operating remailers, those who have identified 
> these repressive measures, and those who have spoken against the 
> American Jihad or who have publically opined that the WTC bombing 
> resembles the Reichstag Fire

Absolutely not.  Completely absurd.  You must have forgotten to take
your anti paranoia pills again.

As for the Reichstag Fire, for the history impaired this was an attack
secretly engineered by the Nazis to give them an excuse to seize power.
The implication is that the United States government arranged for the
WTC attack!  Only someone in the grips of clinical paranoia could make
such a suggestion.  Tim May is really losing it now.

> * these raids will be done in the usual pre-dawn, ninja-clad storm 
> trooper way: flash-bangs, shoot anything that appears to move, put the 
> perps _down_!

Right, ninja troops carrying away bespectacled, nerdly remailer operators.
Here's a better fantasy.  They'll hire $1000/night superhookers and
seduce the remailer operators into giving up their keys.  Both have
about equal chances of reality.

If the government really does care about remailers, chances are Carnivore
is already more than up to the task.  Cryptographic analyses have shown
many times how weak the current remailer network is.  See below for a
list of attacks on remailers from the guys at Zero-Knowledge.  Add in
the ability to penetrate systems and steal their keys and the remailer
network provides far from terrorist-grade security.

Far better for the spooks to leave the network running and provide the
illusion of security in the hopes that criminals will trust it.  If they
take it down they'll just drive the terrorists further underground.

> * many of those arrested in the raids may not actually be prosecuted, as 
> even pliable courts will find little or no constitutional basis for 
> prosecution, though some fraction will die while "resisting arrest" (a 
> few highly-publicized "barricade situations," a la Waco, should help 
> with the terror campaign)

The United States government has no interest in killing remailer
operators!  Please try to keep some semblance of a grip on reality.

> * those not arrested, shut down, kicked off their ISPs,  or killed will 
> be driven underground, or, in most cases, will "promise not to do it 
> again" and will meekly become the Carnivore Administrators for their 
> systems

See above, there are better solutions to remailers from the point of
view of law enforcement.  Yes, Carnivore may be part of the plan, but
there's no reason for the remailer operator to know about it.

> * Robb London and Jeff Gordon and their ilk will be promoted to new 
> positions within the National Unity Government and will be asked to 
> detail their successful prosecutions of notorious cypherpunk terrrorists

Even as fantasy, this is deteriorating...

> * Congress will hold endless hearings reminiscent of the House 
> Un-American Activities Committee hearings. Activists and crypto 
> advocates will receive subpoenas. The media, even the newly-fascist tech 
> media, will villify them.

Starring... Tim May, of course.  It is sad that this once brilliant mind
has been reduced by isolation and bitterness into constructing these
paranoid fantasies.

> * Someday, perhaps in 20 years, wiser heads will realize that shredding 
> the Constitution in support of some Zionists who pushed Arabs (called 
> "sand niggers") off of their lands was not a good idea.

There are already many voices warning against weakening the Constitution.
You won't have to wait 20 years for sanity to prevail.

> War is coming. Against us, against liberty, against the Constitution.

War is coming, against Afghanistan and other Arab organizations.  On that
part you were right.  The rest of it is just your paranoid ravings.

> If I stop posting in the coming weeks, you'll know why.

Because you'll be embarrassed to have been proven wrong once again?

===

A few kinds of remailer attacks:

Brute Force Attack
Node Flushing Attack (aka Spam Attack)
Timing Attack
Communication Pattern Attack
Packet Counting Attack
Intersection Attack
Denial of Service Attack
User Reaction Attack
Sting Attack
Distinguished Message Attack
Message Delaying Attack
Message Tagging Attack