Likely that between the two, only prediction markets enable the
   possibility of encouraging real-world outcomes.

   On Mon, Dec 6, 2021, 4:19 AM grarpamp <[1]grarpamp@gmail.com> wrote:

     [2]https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2660628
     Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets versus
     Prediction Polls
     Management Science, Early View, Forthcoming
     37 Pages Posted: 15 Sep 2015 Last revised: 28 Nov 2017
     Pavel D. Atanasov
     Pytho LLC
     Phillip Rescober
     Independent
     Eric Stone
     Independent
     Samuel A. Swift
     University of California, Berkeley - Institute of Business and
     Economic Research (IBER); Tepper School of Business
     Emile Servan-Schreiber
     LUMENOGIC
     Philip Tetlock
     University of Pennsylvania
     Lyle Ungar
     University of Pennsylvania
     Barbara Mellers
     University of California, Berkeley - Marketing Group; University of
     Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
     Date Written: March 1, 2017
     Abstract
     We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term,
     experimental test between two crowd sourcing methods – prediction
     markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants made
     forecasts on 261 events over two seasons of a geopolitical
     prediction
     tournament. Some forecasters traded in a continuous double auction
     market and were ranked based on earnings. Others submitted
     probability
     judgments, independently or in teams, and were ranked based on Brier
     scores. In both seasons of the tournament, last day prices from the
     prediction market were more accurate than the simple mean of
     forecasts
     from prediction polls. However, team prediction polls outperformed
     prediction markets when poll forecasts were aggregated with
     algorithms
     using temporal decay, performance weighting and recalibration. The
     biggest advantage of prediction polls occurred at the start of
     long-duration questions. Prediction polls with proper scoring,
     algorithmic aggregation and teaming offer an attractive alternative
     to
     prediction markets for distilling the wisdom of crowds.
     Keywords: Prediction, Forecasting, Prediction Markets, Crowdsourcing
     JEL Classification: C82, C93, D84
     Suggested Citation:
     Atanasov, Pavel D. and Rescober, Phillip and Stone, Eric and Swift,
     Samuel A. and Servan-Schreiber, Emile and Tetlock, Philip and Ungar,
     Lyle and Mellers, Barbara, Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds:
     Prediction
     Markets versus Prediction Polls (March 1, 2017). Management Science,
     Early View, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN:
     [3]https://ssrn.com/abstract=2660628

References

   1. mailto:grarpamp@gmail.com
   2. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2660628
   3. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2660628