War re Ukraine: Thread

grarpamp grarpamp at gmail.com
Sat May 13 09:37:55 PDT 2023


History full of Princes killing their Kings...


With Bakhmut Hanging In Balance, Will Putin Order Takedown Of Wagner Boss?

The bizarre spat between Wagner mercenary group and the regular
Russian military chain of command has continued exploding into public
view, now reaching a full-blown crisis for Moscow as the fate of the
Bakhmut front hangs in the balance.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Friday that the Russian army is
abandoning its positions near Bakhmut. "This is not called regrouping,
this is fleeing," he said in audio statement posted to Wagner's social
media channels.

He additionally alleged that Russian troops "simply went fleeing" from
positions around the north and south of the strategic Donetsk city.
"The flanks are failing. The front is collapsing," he added.

But the defense ministry (MoD) was quick to reject the new assessment
from Prigozhin, who this week has been begging for more ammunition,
while threatening to pull his forces if resupplies continue to be
blocked or falter. The MoD said their are units being regrouped and
progress is being made.

Prigozhin retorted that "Attempts by the defense ministry in the
information field to sugarcoat the situation - it's leading and will
lead to a global tragedy for Russia." Prigozhin has previously called
the generals "clowns". Further according to statements from the Wagner
chief this week:

    “Those territories that were liberated with the blood and lives of
our comrades … are abandoned today almost without any fight by those
who are supposed to hold our flanks.”

    Earlier in the week, Prigozhin marred Russia’s May 9 Victory Day
celebrations with public and foul-mouthed criticisms of the country’s
top military officials.

    “Today they [Ukrainians] are tearing up the flanks in the
Artemovsk [Bakhmut] direction, regrouping at Zaporizhzhia. And a
counteroffensive is about to begin,” he said Tuesday. “Victory Day is
the victory of our grandfathers. We haven’t earned that victory one
millimetre.”

Without doubt Prigozhin has seen his political star rise following
Wagner's spearheading victory in places like Soledar. He's also a
personal friend (and formerly his chef) of President Putin, but many
are starting to ask: how far can Prigozhin go with his blasting both
military and political leadership?

At this sensitive moment where the tide of the Ukraine war hangs in
the balance for the Kremlin (Bakhmut long being seen as a strategic
'turning point' in the east), how politically expendable is Prigozhin?
How much can he get away with? He seemed to even reference Putin
derogatorily as a "happy grandfather" who is ignorant of the real
situation on the ground.

There are Western media reports that the Kremlin is preparing to take
down or silence the Wagner chief...

    “If it goes on like this, the official security forces will
definitely stop it.”https://t.co/GQha2Uqn9q
    — The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) May 10, 2023

The Washington-based hawkish Institute for the Study of War is posing
this key question, among others:

    It may seem surprising in a country where criticizing the military
can potentially cost a person a spell in prison that Prigozhin gets
away with strident criticism of Putin’s generals. But Putin presides
over what is often described as a court system, where infighting and
competition among elites is in fact encouraged to produce results, as
long as the “vertical of power” remains loyal to and answers to the
head of state.

    But Prigozhin’s online tantrums to be crossing the line to open
disloyalty, some observers say.

    In a recent Twitter thread, the Washington-based think tank
Institute for the Study of War said, “If the Kremlin does not respond
to Prigozhin’s escalating attacks on Putin it may further erode the
norm in Putin’s system in which individual actors can jockey for
position and influence (and drop in and out of Putin’s favor) but
cannot directly criticize Putin.”

    Speculation then centers on whether Prigozhin is politically
expendable, whether his outbursts are a sort of clever deception
operation — or, more troublingly for Putin, whether the system of
loyalty that keeps the Kremlin running smoothly is starting to break
down.

    2/ #Prigozhin referred to a “happy grandfather” figure who “thinks
that he is good” during a discussion of ammunition shortages and
#Russia’s future prospects in #Ukraine.
    — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 10, 2023

Adding to the pressure on the Kremlin, Western headlines are beginning
to take note that Prigozhi's tirades are now seeming to take aim at
Putin himself. One reads: "Humiliation for Vladimir Putin as boss of
the Russian private military company goes into public meltdown."

    Prigozhin invited the leaders of Russian defense ministry to
Bakhmut to stop their fleeing troops. He also said that Wagner PMC was
"using their ammunition to stop the fleeing servicemen of the Russian
army".

    (From Prigozhin's response to Viktor Sobolev, member of defense…
pic.twitter.com/zxcfZPTeu1
    — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 12, 2023

How far can Prigozhin go?


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