You Might Survive a Nuclear Blast—if You Have the Right Shelter The escalating risks of Russia’s war in Ukraine have led scientists to study the unthinkable and model the aftermath of nuclear detonation.

[Gunnar Larson]

*My University of Nicosia in Cyprus is at it again, "Even people at a bank
would have to get into the vault to be in the safest place..."*

https://www.wired.com/story/you-might-survive-a-nuclear-blast-if-you-have-the-right-shelter/

WIRED

JAN 25, 2023 8:00 AM

You Might Survive a Nuclear Blast—if You Have the Right Shelter
The escalating risks of Russia’s war in Ukraine have led scientists to
study the unthinkable and model the aftermath of nuclear detonation.
Nuclear test
PHOTOGRAPH: GETTY IMAGES


IN A FLASH, a nuclear warhead unleashes the destructive power of hundreds
of kilotons of TNT. The resulting inferno, and the blast wave that follows,
instantly kill people directly in their path. But a new study finds that
some people two to seven miles away could survive—if they’re lucky enough
to find just the right kind of shelter.

Dimitris Drikakis, a fluid dynamics researcher at the University of Nicosia
in Cyprus, led the study both to illuminate the ongoing risks of nuclear
escalation and to examine how one might have a chance at survival if the
unthinkable should come to pass. “People have forgotten the devastating
impacts nuclear war can have. But now we’re seeing the discussion starting
again, and there’s a debate about the potential for nuclear war in
Ukraine,” says Drikakis. “I think this kind of study raises awareness
within the wider population that nuclear explosions are not a joke.”

His grim research comes just as the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
announced that it has ticked the Doomsday Clock forward, to 90 seconds
until an apocalyptic midnight, citing the increasing nuclear tensions
following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Scientists and artists developed
the metaphorical clock to communicate risks posed by global, human-caused
problems including climate change, but the dangers of nuclear war have been
a major focus since its inception.

Drikakis combed through scientific research on what the aftermath of
nuclear weapon use would look like, and he spotted a gap: There’s little
knowledge of the effects on humans indoors in the “moderate damage zone” a
few miles from the epicenter, far enough away that buildings might not get
blown to bits. He and his colleague Ioannis Kokkinakis focused on this area
and published their work in the Physics of Fluids journal last week.

Since no one’s going around testing nukes on buildings these days, this
kind of research employs computer simulations. Drikakis and Kokkinakis
simulated the blast effects of a 750-kiloton warhead—like the hundreds of
larger bombs in Russia’s arsenal—delivered by an intercontinental ballistic
missile, which would detonate about 3 kilometers above a metropolis. They
studied how the supersonic shock waves would propagate through a three-room
concrete structure situated in the moderate damage zone and assumed that
the concrete was strong enough to withstand the 3 to 5 pounds per square
inch of pressure from the blast wave.

This is a 3D illustration of the simulated air blast and generated blast
wave 10 seconds after the detonation of a 750 kiloton nuclear warhead above
a typical metropolitan city; the radius of the shock bubble at ground level
is 4.6 kilometers. COURTESY OF I. KOKKINAKIS AND D. DRIKAKIS/UNIVERSITY OF
NICOSIA
Their research shows that, if a nuke were ever detonated in a modern city,
some people in the surrounding areas would make it. They might have about
five to 10 seconds after the initial flash to get to safety. If they
happened to be in a thick concrete structure with few openings, like in a
bank or a subway, they might survive if they used that limited time to run
into the corner of a back room with few openings.

Being in an enclosed space matters because, the researchers find, the blast
winds following the initial fireball can be even more dangerous and deadly
than the blast itself. These winds push outward behind the shock wave, and
anyone facing the brunt of them could be slammed against a wall at high
speed. The winds are especially dangerous if a person is near a door or
window or in a corridor or an opening to a room. Winds quickly funnel
through such areas, throwing people and furniture around—it’s like a storm
let loose in a building.

(If you are wondering whether you could copy the Indiana Jones move in The
Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, surviving a nuclear blast by jumping inside a
fridge, Drikakis says that might be possible. But it’s also possible the
strong wind would hurl the fridge with Indy inside.)

Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, a scientist-in-residence and nuclear physicist at
the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, points out
that if multiple buildings happen to lie between the structure you’re in
and the incoming blast wave, that shadowing effect can lessen the airspeed
and forces involved. Those in a basement might avoid the worst blast
effects too. “A lot of people have a nihilistic point of view that there’s
nothing we can do about it,” but that’s not the case, he says.

Shown are the contours of the maximum airspeed attained during the first 10
seconds after the blast wave enters the window; overpressure equals 5
pounds per square inch. COURTESY OF I. KOKKINAKIS AND D.
DRIKAKIS/UNIVERSITY OF NICOSIA
But let’s be honest: Most people, even in the moderate damage zone, won’t
survive. Hardly anyone lives or works in nearly windowless
reinforced-concrete buildings, nor in the vicinity of a concrete bunker.
(Even people at a bank would have to get into the vault to be in the safest
place; people in a subway would get the most benefit in a station that’s
very deep underground.) Most people live in timber-frame or other
less-armored buildings.

This shouldn’t be construed as a way to be safe in a nuclear explosion,
says Dylan Spaulding, an earth scientist and nuclear expert at the Union of
Concerned Scientists. Strong structures made of concrete with metal
reinforcement and designed for seismic safety would survive the pressures
the team modeled, he says, but those pressures would be enough to destroy
most traditional, wood-framed houses and brick structures without
reinforcement.

And he points out that the blast wave is only part of the story. While it
is the main source of danger in a non-nuclear explosion—like the one that
rocked Beirut in 2020, which was caused by a large quantity of flammable
ammonium nitrate stored at the city’s port—nuclear weapons also throw out
ionizing radiation and heat, followed by radioactive fallout.

Radiation exposure through the skin or inhalation can have many health
effects, including skin burns, organ damage, and cancer. The range of
radiation exposure could extend tens of miles from the epicenter, so people
who survive the blast could later be felled by the radiation.

Drikakis’ example focused on what’s called a “strategic” nuke deployed on
an ICBM, but there are also “tactical” nukes, which are dropped by a plane
onto a battlefield and which can blow up on the ground. Such explosions
play out differently but can be as deadly and destructive, potentially
exposing more people to lethal radiation doses, Spaulding says.

Russia and the US also possess so-called low-yield nukes, which have 5 to
10 kilotons of yield and are a little smaller than the 15-kiloton bomb
dropped on Hiroshima. These would still inflict massive devastation and
cross a dangerous red line, possibly escalating a conflict to the use of
larger weapons.

Humanity’s most destructive weapons have been used in war only once, when
the US demolished Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, with two atomic bombs at
the end of the Second World War in 1945. Together they killed more than
100,000 Japanese civilians and injured many more. And Spaulding points out
that along with experiments conducted at the Nevada Test Site, they offer
some of the only real-world evidence about the kinds of structures that can
survive an atomic blast, and how well.

But last year Russian president Vladimir Putin insinuated that nukes are
not off the table in his attack on Ukraine. While NATO leaders have not
used such threatening rhetoric, the international organization conducted
nuclear exercises in October, simulating dropping B61 nuclear bombs. US
president Joe Biden’s Nuclear Posture Review the same month abandoned a “no
first use” policy he previously supported. One could imagine nuclear risks
in other conflicts too, like the possibility of North Korea using a nuke
against South Korea, or Pakistan and India using them against each other.

The world’s arsenals add up to about 12,700 warheads, according to an
inventory by the Federation of American Scientists. That’s fewer than their
peak of around 70,000 near the end of the Cold War, thanks to arms
reduction treaties. But some of those pacts have since been dissolved, and
the dangers never went away, as the Doomsday Clock’s metaphor illustrates.

This is not a game, Drikakis says. The risks of a devastating nuclear
strike are all too real, he says: “We have to maintain peace by
understanding the risks of not maintaining the peace.”
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