War re Ukraine: Thread

grarpamp grarpamp at gmail.com
Tue Mar 14 00:14:50 PDT 2023


Welcome your new global overlords...


A Prelude To War

Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

While the Biden administration’s weakness and decline in military
readiness concerning China goes unreported or under-reported in the
United States, those nations most vulnerable to Chinese aggression and
intimidation are aware of the rising risk of war.

When nations assess their national security status, they analyze all
alliances and associations, including military, economic, etc. A
critical aspect of that analysis will be the United States and its
ability and willingness to fulfill its strategic security obligations.

Fading US Security Guarantees in the Region

Today, those obligations, first and foremost, involve the threats that
China and its de facto proxy, North Korea, pose to the region. Every
national security advisor or minister of defense in the Asia-Pacific
region that relies on U.S. security guarantees must ask themselves,
“Are we as secure today as we were yesterday under American security
guarantees?”

In other words, the governments in Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Canberra, and
Manila all see the growing threat coming from China. These
governments’ actions indicate that they’re all questioning their
belief that the United States will be able to defend them.

Unfortunately, most are increasingly unsure about America’s ability to
defend them. In the Pentagon, however, the answer is definite, No, we
will not be able to protect you.

Over the past decade, with the possible exception of the Trump
administration, the United States has pursued a graduated weakness
defense posture in the region (as well as elsewhere) by failing to
address threats with tangible military development and deployment
effectively. Meanwhile, China continues to increase its defense
spending to record levels.
Asia-Pacific Nations React to China Threat and US Decline

As a result, South Korea is seriously considering building its nuclear
arsenal in response to the rising threat posed by both China and North
Korea. Given North Korea’s reliance on China for food and fuel, one
must conclude that its aggression and acts of intimidation toward
South Korea and Japan are tacitly, if not explicitly, approved by
Beijing.

Tokyo is also radically redefining its defense posture across the
board in light of China’s rising threat to the status quo. The
Japanese are doing so because they don’t see a commensurate rise in
America’s ability to stop China.

In Taipei, Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said that he expects a
Chinese attack by 2027, if not sooner. Xi Jinping has prioritized
conquering Taiwan and continues to escalate China’s provocative
behavior. Consequently, Taiwan has extended compulsory military
service from four months to a year and seeks to develop drone and
missile production. Again, that’s a no-confidence vote on America’s
willingness and capability to deter an attack from China or even
answer one.

Australia’s response is less about re-arming and deepening its
strategic international relationships. That applies not only to the
United States, which is more or less a given but also to expanding its
ties with India. That makes sense since India is China’s only regional
nuclear and military counterweight.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) shakes hands with Australia’s
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese before a meeting at Hyderabad House in
New Delhi on March 10, 2023. (Money Sharma/AFP via Getty Images)

In the Philippines last month, Manila granted the U.S. increased use
of its military bases in direct response to the rising threat from
China. In all practical terms, expanding America’s military presence
in the Philippines is the equivalent of a military buildup.
Beijing Redefines US-Based Security Agreements in the Region

What’s more, Beijing is clearly signaling to the region and the United
States that the U.S. security guarantee to the regional nations
alliance is now unacceptable. This shift mirrors China’s rise to
global power and its desire and intent to challenge U.S. supremacy in
the region.

China’s leadership, including Xi Jinping and his Minister of Foreign
Affairs Qin Gang, has made it clear how Beijing views the current
Asia-Pacific security arrangement, describing it as “encirclement” and
“containment and suppression, a zero-sum game of life and death.”
Intimidation Rhetoric

But who was Beijing speaking to?

Was the message primarily aimed at its domestic audience to gin up
nationalism, as left-wing The Guardian claims?

Is the Chinese leadership expressing its fear of a life-and-death
struggle between itself and the United States?

Perhaps, but not likely. It’s more realistic that Beijing was sending
a message to the other nations in the region to intimidate and affirm
their doubts about America’s security commitment. Using Cold War terms
like “containment” also points to the regional nations as the intended
audience since they’re framing the current voluntary security
arrangements as belligerent rather than defensive.

It’s no surprise why they would make such a forward-leaning assertion.
The U.S. military state of readiness is already stretched thin in
various contexts, including the massive commitment of war materiel to
Ukraine.
US in ‘Terminal Decline?’

Beijing regards the United States as being in “terminal decline” and
sees an opportunity to exploit the weakness of the Biden
administration regarding its reunification plans with Taiwan.

Moreover, China’s navy has already surpassed the United States’
surface fleet numbers. According to Kris Osborn of Warrior Maven, it
also possesses nuclear-enabled, hypersonic, anti-ship missiles,
against which the U.S. Navy “may or may not” be able to defend itself.
Therefore, it’s reasonable to think that the “zero-sum game of life
and death” phrasing applies more to U.S. allies in the region rather
than to China.

What could be the reason for Beijing’s massive military build-up?

The simple fact is that no country or group of countries has any
interest in, intention to, or capability of invading China.

Unfortunately, it’s not likely that any country or group of countries
will be able to deter China from invading and conquering other nations
in the Asia-Pacific region.

That reality has finally dawned on them and the rest of the world.




Fight Brewing Between Congress & Biden On Labeling Wagner A Terrorist
Organization

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), a Democratic member of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee is leading the charge along with six other
Democratic and Republican senators to get Russia's Wagner Group
mercenary firm labeled a terrorist organization.

Shaheen's legislation, titled the Holding Accountable Russian
Mercenaries (HARM) Act would force the State Department to add Wagner
to the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. It's designed also
to force the Biden administration's hand, which has remained resistant
to issuing a terror label, only dubbing it more ambiguously as a
global criminal organization and thus bringing limited financial
sanctions. This as Wagner is increasingly the focus of international
headlines for its leading role in fighting for Bakhmut.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia's Wagner mercenary force, via Reuters.

Biden's reluctance is causing anger in Congress, and allegations of
White House shortsightedness given Wagner's outsized role in fighting
in Ukraine's east. "We’ve seen that again and again in terms of this
support for the Ukrainians and this war, where Congress has been out
ahead of the White House," Sen. Shaheen said in a weekend statement.

"It’s been true since Russia invaded Ukraine. I remember in 2014
supporting lethal weapons for Ukraine, and the White House refused to
support that. I don’t see this as unusual," she added. "I hope the
administration and the State Department comes on board."

The FTO designation would impose far-reaching costs on the group and
open up more means of targeting the mercenary firm by Washington,
including going after third parties that deal with Wagner. And given
widespread accusations from Ukrainian and Western officials that it is
committing atrocities in Ukraine, this has left some Congress members
scratching their heads over why Biden hasn't pulled the trigger on the
FTO.

But one Congressional aide explained to The Hill that it relates to
other regions of the world where Wagner is active, and that unexpected
consequences would accrue and impact US relations with certain
countries:

    “[The State Department] is concerned that if suddenly the FTO
designation lands on Wagner, that those governments, where there’s
various officials that deal with them [Wagner], that they would all,
immediately be blocked from travel to the United States and have their
assets seized for coming into contact with the FTO. So that’s the
nature of their concern,” the aide said.

    “They claim they’re not opposed to it on Ukraine grounds, but
they’re opposed to it on Africa grounds.”

Wagner meanwhile, last week announced a major recruiting expansions,
opening up new offices and recruitment centers in over 40 cities
across Russia. The group with ties to President Putin has lately come
under severe criticism by the Russian Defense Ministry and regular
military chain of command for being too unaccountable and acting as a
rival to authorized commanders.


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