Cryptocurrency: Capturing The Carnage, BTFD!
grarpamp at gmail.com
Thu Nov 17 11:59:43 PST 2022
> Base case still $50k
$100T global cash equivs (banked and money market, cash, coin, gold, silver)
* 10% allocation into
/ 10 coins (a few dominating each sector)
/ 20M units each (emulate similar feels)
Conservative, diversification allocation of today's idle cash only.
Does not include continued printflation of Fiat, adoption raising
the overall allocation, commerce float, coin loss, nor other plays:
- $120T bond market allocating in for yield
- $325T real estate moving toward NFT shares
- stock, derivatives, etc
Today: $850B MktCap (with 2 of 10 taking 55%: $16.5k BTC, $1.2k ETH)
Discount to base is now somewhere around...
- 65% (2.7x on 2, 12x on total cap)
Distance to future cap is around...
- 12x (10% alloc, single play), to 320x (50% alloc, triple play)
McAfee was right, macro doesn't lie... a crypto future will feel like $1M.
After the cap moves over and settles in it becomes just another
zero sum market a few decades from now.
What's in your wallet?
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