Cryptocurrency: Capturing The Carnage, BTFD!

grarpamp grarpamp at
Thu Nov 17 11:59:43 PST 2022

> Base case still $50k

$100T global cash equivs (banked and money market, cash, coin, gold, silver)
* 10% allocation into
/ 10 coins (a few dominating each sector)
/ 20M units each (emulate similar feels)
= $50k

Conservative, diversification allocation of today's idle cash only.
Does not include continued printflation of Fiat, adoption raising
the overall allocation, commerce float, coin loss, nor other plays:
- $120T bond market allocating in for yield
- $325T real estate moving toward NFT shares
- stock, derivatives, etc

Today: $850B MktCap (with 2 of 10 taking 55%: $16.5k BTC, $1.2k ETH)

Discount to base is now somewhere around...
- 65% (2.7x on 2, 12x on total cap)

Distance to future cap is around...
- 12x (10% alloc, single play), to 320x (50% alloc, triple play)

McAfee was right, macro doesn't lie... a crypto future will feel like $1M.

After the cap moves over and settles in it becomes just another
zero sum market a few decades from now.

What's in your wallet?

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