USA 2020 Elections: Thread

[grarpamp]

Given they hurrah'd and frauded their politics and this Joke and
his silly VP into office, all prediction polls are now saying the
answer is clearly yes.


Will The Midterms Be Biden's Last Hurrah?

https://buchanan.org/blog/will-midterms-be-bidens-last-hurrah-159409

For half a decade now, America’s media elite have been obsessed with
former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party’s conversion to
Trumpism.

Press and TV are daily consumed with his actions and prospects and the
future of the party he captured in 2016.

Perhaps it is time to consider the prospects of President Joe Biden
and the political future of his embattled presidency.

What are the odds that Biden, like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama
before him, will run again in 2024, win reelection, serve out a second
term and transfer his office to the 47th president on Jan. 20, 2029?

My guess: The odds of that happening are roughly the same as the odds
that last-minute entry Rich Strike would win the Kentucky Derby, as he
left the starting gate at Churchill Downs at 80-1.

Consider the first hurdle Biden faces on the way to renomination in
2024 — the midterm elections five months off.

Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reached record
highs in January, both have seen eight weeks of wipeouts of trillions
of dollars in value as we approached bear-market territory by the end
of last week.

Stock portfolios, pensions and retirement benefit plans have been
gutted. These massive market losses are also a lead indicator pointing
to a recession right ahead, just as voters pass judgment on a
Democratic Party that controls the White House and both houses of
Congress.

But even before we reach recession, Americans have already been living
with a Biden inflation of 8% that has lasted for months and affected
all the necessities of normal life, such as groceries and gasoline.

And the worst seems yet to come.

The Federal Reserve has reversed course from its easy money days and
begun to raise interest rates to squeeze the Biden inflation out of
the economy. What lies ahead may remind people who were around then of
Jimmy Carter’s “stagflation,” where interest rates hit 21% to kill an
inflation that reached 13%.

As for the crisis on the southern border, it is deeper than ever. Some
234,000 migrants were caught illegally entering the U.S. in April
alone, with thousands of others evading any contact with U.S.
authorities.

This is an invasion rate of some 3 million illegal migrants a year.

Shootings, killings, carjackings, criminal assaults, and
smash-and-grab robberies in record numbers are the subject of our
nightly news.

And the latest national polls suggest the country is holding Biden
responsible. The president’s approval rating is down to 39%, and only
1 in 3 Americans think he is doing a good job handling the economy and
that the nation is headed in the right direction.

Now the omicron variant of COVID-19 is making a comeback; infections
are again over 100,000 a day.

Biden might find consolation from how his predecessors overcame
midterm defeats. Clinton in 1994 lost 54 House seats and won
reelection easily in 1996. Obama lost 63 House seats in 2010 to come
back and win handily over Mitt Romney in 2012.

Why cannot Biden ride out the anticipated storm in this year’s
midterms and come back to win election in 2024, as did Clinton and
Obama?

Age has something to do with it. Clinton was 50 in his reelection year
1996. Obama was 51 in his reelection year 2012. And both were at the
peak of their political powers.

Biden, on election day 2024, will be two weeks shy of his 82nd
birthday. Should he serve out a second term, he would not leave the
White House until he had turned 86. Biden has been America’s oldest
president since the day he took office.

Alexander Hamilton in the Federalist Papers wrote of “energy in the
executive” as being an indispensable attribute of good government.

Does Biden, with his shuffling gait, regular gaffes, and physical and
cognitive decline manifest that attribute of which Hamilton wrote?

The likely scenario for Biden?

His party sustains a crushing defeat in November comparable to what
Clinton and Obama suffered. But the party does not immediately rally
around Biden as present and future leader, as it did with Clinton and
Obama. Critics inside the Democratic coalition begin to blame Biden
for the loss.

Ambitious Democrats, sensing disaster if Biden tops the ticket in
2024, begin to call for him to stand down and give way to a younger
candidate, a new face, in 2024.

One or two progressives declare for president, and the pressure builds
on Biden to avoid a personal and political humiliation in the 2024
primaries by standing down, as Harry Truman did in 1952 and Lyndon
Johnson did in 1968.

By early 2023, Biden will have adopted the line that dealing with the
challenge of China and Russia and, at the same time, coping with
recession and inflation require his full attention. And these preclude
a national political campaign for reelection.

And then President Joe Biden announces he will not run again.