War re Ukraine: Thread

grarpamp grarpamp at gmail.com
Mon Feb 21 12:58:01 PST 2022


Russia makes its big move...


https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/nato-osterweiterung-aktenfund-stuetzt-russische-version-a-1613d467-bd72-4f02-8e16-2cd6d3285295

https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1495781102337900547
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495821979227762697
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1495828205286080518
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1495849535859527684
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassyR
https://twitter.com/bnonews
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjMnTo85S4A Putin's address
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1OyKADOlpNWxb
https://twitter.com/rt_com


Putin Declares Formal Recognition Of Ukraine Separatist Regions As
Sovereign States

Update(1:30pmET): The leaders of France and Germany were reportedly
just informed by Putin that he intends to pull the trigger on issuing
formal recognition of the two breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine.
It's official: Putin has confirmed the change of status recognition
while warning Kiev and the West that Russia's military will act
against any further aggression. He warned that Ukraine's government
must now halt all military actions against Donbas or whatever happens
next will be on them.

"Modern Ukraine was completely created by Russia," Putin stated at the
outset of his speech.

        PUTIN SAYS UKRAINE WAS NOT ABLE TO ACHIEVE STABLE STATEHOOD
AND HAS THEREFORE HAD TO RELY ON FOREIGN COUNTRIES LIKE THE UNITED
STATES
        PUTIN: UKRAINE HAS BECOME 'A COLONY WITH A PUPPET GOVERNMENT'
        PUTIN SAYS UKRAINE PLANS TO CREATE ITS OWN NUCLEAR WEAPONS
        PUTIN SAYS WE WERE PROMISED NATO WOULD NOT EXPAND PUTIN SAYS
THE OPPOSITE HAPPENED
        PUTIN: I WILL SAY SOMETHING IVE NEVER SAID FOR THE FIRST TIME:
I ASKED CLINTON HOW WOULD YOU FEEL ABOUT RUSSIA JOINING NATO?
        PUTIN SAYS WE SAW FIVE WAVES OF NATO EXPANSION RECENTLY
        U.S. DOES NOT NEED SUCH A BIG COUNTRY AS RUSSIA IN NATO
        'WHY MAKE AN ENEMY OF US
        PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA HAS EVERY RIGHT TO PROTECT ITS SECURITY,
THAT'S WHAT WE'LL DO
        PUTIN: UKRAINE DOESNT WANT A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION
        PUTIN: RUSSIA WILL TAKE STEPS TO ENSURE ITS SECURITY
        PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA WILL RECOGNISE INDEPENDENCE OF TWO BREAKAWAY
REGIONS IN EASTERN UKRAINE

    President #Putin informed President @EmmanuelMacron and Federal
Chancellor @OlafScholz of his intention to sign the decree to
recognise #Donetsk and #Lugansk People’s Republics.
pic.twitter.com/Xi4JfhLXgr
    — Russian Embassy, UK (@RussianEmbassy) February 21, 2022

LIVE FEED:

The Western powers have expressed surprise and dismay at the move, as
sanctions packages are being prepped in Washington and Europe.

    "The President of Russia informed them that he intends to sign a
relevant decree [on recognition] in the immediate future.

    The President of France and Chancellor of Germany expressed
disappointment with this development. They also expressed a
willingness to continue contacts." pic.twitter.com/bbArddb98E
    — max seddon (@maxseddon) February 21, 2022

Official Kremlin statement confirming Russian change of status in Donbas:

    Official Kremlin statement confirming that Putin intends to
recognize the two separatist republicshttps://t.co/11dJOvQ78p
pic.twitter.com/JSqoCp9096
    — Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) February 21, 2022

* * *

Update(12:38pmET): Despite the evening growing late Moscow time, it
appears Russia is readying a major decision on the looming question of
the independence of the two breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine.
The AFP is reporting that Putin will make a televised address "soon"
according to state media sources. Likely it is to be carried via
Russian state channels, with reports suggesting it will happen
starting at 9pm local time (or 1pm ET).

        PUTIN TOLD SCHOLZ AND MACRON HE WILL SIGN A DECREE ON EASTERN
UKRAINE REGIONS SHORTLY, WESTERN LEADERS WERE DISMAYED - RIA CITES
KREMLIN
        PUTIN PLANS TO SIGN UKRAINE SEPARATIST RECOGNITION: KREMLIN

As fighting in Donbas has continued into evening, Ukrainian government
officials reported that a civilian has been killed by shelling during
an attack on government-held Novoluganske, which lies a couple dozen
miles north of Donetsk.

Journalists are now looking for ominous signs of what might be about to come...

    The official account of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs
changed its profile picture to what appears to be tomorrow's date.
pic.twitter.com/VXjQ39iUwb
    — Ana Fota (@anafota4) February 21, 2022

* * *

Update(10:40amET): Putin said during his addressing the Russian
Security Council that "I will make a decision today" over whether or
not to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist republics at a
moment of heavy fighting with Ukrainian national forces.

There were indications from the meeting that Russia would give the
West a three day ultimatum and window before recognizing the
separatist regions in eastern Ukraine - perhaps as a chance for last
minute diplomacy to proceed; however, with Putin's words it appears
we'll learn the fate of the region sooner than later.

    Russian state tv RT’s editor says Putin has already made his mind
to recognise breakaway regions Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine
    — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 21, 2022

However, Russia's top diplomat Sergey Lavrov appears to be a voice of
caution while other officials within the security council were in
favor of independence.

Top officials in the meeting were asked whether they support the
pro-Russian separatist republics...

    A long line of officials – some enthusiastically, some looking
terrified – urge Putin to recognize the DNR.

    Putin says, "A decision will be taken today."

    Then the TV cuts out. It's like the finale of the Sopranos.

    What the hell did I just watch????
    — max seddon (@maxseddon) February 21, 2022

It reportedly led to some uncomfortable moments as the world now
awaits Putin's decision:

    Bizarre moment.
    Head of Russia's foreign intelligence agency gets flustered as
Putin asks him if he supports Russia recognising the separatist
regions.
    "I support the annexation of the regions into Russia!"
    Putin laughs and says "we're not talking about that". [Clearly we
are.] https://t.co/WMEVtHIYUY
    — Patrick Reevell (@Reevellp) February 21, 2022

If Putin does pull the trigger on recognition, it could virtually
assure some level of a war or serious conflict, given that the
breakaway republics would come under more intense attack from
Ukraine's army, leading to Russian intervention in defense of the
"newly recognized" regions - if we soon get to that point.

Ukraine is now urging an immediate UN Security Council meeting as
tensions soar and war looks to be on the horizon...

    Ukrainian President Zelenskiy requests urgent meeting of the UN
Security Council
    — BNO News (@BNONews) February 21, 2022

* * *

Update(9:48amET): Separatist leader Denis Pushilin has issued a formal
request to President Vladimir Putin calling on Russia to recognize the
Donetsk People's Republic. The Luhansk republic has simultaneously
published the same request, at a moment Putin is holding an urgent
session of the Russian Security Council. This followed quickly on the
heels of what Russia's southern command said was a serious attempt of
Ukrainian armored vehicles to breach its border, that resulted in five
Ukrainians killed.

However, the Ukrainian government and army rejected the entirety of
the allegations as "fake news" - rejecting that its forces are even in
the area where it's said to have occurred (though without addressing
the possibility that they could have been irregular forces). But
Russia's FSB Director Bortnikov Russian responding by saying the
Russian military "destroyed Ukrainian forces that tried to infiltrate
the border and took one Ukrainian POW" - thus doubling down on the
claims.

    Russia now says it captured one Ukrainian soldier after repelling
cross-border incursion by *two* Ukrainian military units. Kyiv denies
any of this happened.
    — Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) February 21, 2022

That a captured Ukrainian soldier could be in Russian custody would
obviously provide verification, if true. But it would also be seen by
the West as a massive escalation possibly leading to more direct NATO
involvement.

Currently Putin is speaking at a live televised meeting of the
council, where he started by staying Ukraine is planning not to uphold
its end of the Minsk accords.

The question is also reportedly on the table of whether or in what way
the Donbas region could achieve independence, even with at one point
in the security council session an official raising the possibility of
direct annexation. Putin said "we need to consider if we recognize the
independence of the two breakaway Ukrainian regions," according to a
rush translation of his words.

        PUTIN: WE MUST DECIDE ON RECOGNIZING SEPARATISTS
        PUTIN: WEST IS MAKING `THREATS, BLACKMAIL'
        RUSSIA'S MEDVEDEV: WE KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN WE RECOGNIZE
DONBASS INDEPENDENCE, THE PRESSURE WILL BE UNPRECEDENTED, BUT WE KNOW
HOW TO FACE IT

    Denis Pushilin, the head of the Donetsk People's Republic, just
went on Russian TV to ask Putin to recognize it as an independent
state. Looks like Georgia 2008 all over again
pic.twitter.com/tm00PkRvkQ
    — max seddon (@maxseddon) February 21, 2022

Putin further repeated while addressing the forum that "if Russia
faces the danger of Ukraine joining NATO, the threat for our country
will increase substantially." He was perhaps addressing a hugely
provocative statement made by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba
to "60 Minutes" which aired Sunday.

Kuleba on a major American television show reaffirmed Ukraine's desire
to enter NATO, which without doubt inflamed tensions further from
Moscow's point of view...

    Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Lesley Stahl Ukraine
is not willing to abandon its goal of entering NATO to please Russian
President Vladimir Putin and that he still sees “room for diplomacy.”
https://t.co/hqlcp4iQ5h pic.twitter.com/8CxR9PqvV1
    — 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) February 21, 2022

In response to the rapidly escalating crisis, the ruble has tumbled as
much as 3%, extending its worst 3-day slump since March 2020...

... while the Moscow Exchange tumbled as much as 10%, its biggest drop
since 2008...

... amid a bloodbath of most Russian stocks.



* * *

Earlier:

In what provides Russia an 'opportunity' to pull the trigger on overt
intervention in eastern Ukraine (assuming it's actually desiring to do
so), rebel leaders in the breakaway Donetsk region on Monday urged
Moscow's urgent military help amid worsening shelling from Ukrainian
national forces, and as fighting escalates along the line of contact.

This as Interfax in a breaking report cites Russian defense officials
who say five "saboteurs" were killed by border guards as they
attempted to enter Russia's territory. Though details are as yet
unconfirmed at this early point, Russia's military says Ukrainian army
vehicles attempted to breach sovereign Russian territory. Ukraine is
disputing the entire narrative, however, calling it fake news and that
its forces are not in the Rostov area.

    RUSSIA SAYS KILLED FIVE PEOPLE WHO TRIED TO VIOLATE BORDER: IFX

    The spokesperson's office of #Russia Southern Military District
said two infantry fighting vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed forces
entered Russian territory.
    — Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) February 21, 2022

And Bloomberg details of the breaking report:

    Russian forces killed five “saboteurs” and destroyed 2 armored
personnel carriers of the Ukrainian forces who tried to violate
Russian border, Russian army’s Southern Military District says,
according to Interfax report

The Russian MoD statement said the alleged "attack occurred in the
Mityakinskaya area at 6 am this morning. Infantry fighting vehicles
were destroyed by anti-tank missiles."

The separatists are now formally asking Moscow for military and
financial assistance against the "Ukrainian attacks"; however,
Ukraine's army is currently denying that it's conducting offensive
operations in the Donbas, according to RT and regional correspondents.

Further the Kremlin is citing what it says is a major escalation,
after reports that a Ukrainian shell hit and destroyed a Russian
border checkpoint in the Rostov region. The Russian side now says
Ukrainian munitions are landing on its sovereign soil, which some say
could be used as a casus belli if Putin so chooses.
Archived image of Ukrainian troops in Donbas, via Wiki Commons

According to Russian state sources, Donbas officials and separatist
commanders are intensifying their plea for Russian help, which if
initiated could crucially in turn trigger heightened NATO intervention
in the conflict:

    Speaking to the Solovyov Live YouTube channel on Monday, Eduard
Basurin, the spokesman for the Donetsk People’s Militia said that
Moscow should provide moral support “first of all,” but that “I would
not refuse any - military assistance is also needed, in different
forms.”

    The official also claimed that there is a war taking place in
Donbass, adding, “the situation isn’t just difficult, it is genuinely
critical.”

Both breakaway republics began evacuating citizens to Russian
territory, announced on Feb.18, citing fears of reprisal attacks by
Ukrainian forces, with at this point a believed tens of thousands of
civilians having been transferred, mostly via large passenger buses.

    Russia’s RIA says the alleged Ukrainian she’ll hit the Neklinovsky
district of Rostov. The nearest Ukrainian positions are some 20 km
away, and Russian-installed Donetsk People’s Republic controls the
other side of that border. https://t.co/jP4S9osBNh
    — Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) February 21, 2022

One Russian media report cites that about "61,000 residents of the LPR
and DPR have crossed the border into Russia as part of evacuation amid
escalation in eastern Ukraine."

If true this would suggest a major logistical operation still in
progress amid the rapidly deteriorating security situation in the
war-torn Donbas, and still with unprecedented numbers of Russian
troops mustered near the border in Russia's southern regions.


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