Coronavirus: Thread

[grarpamp]

Long Funeral Homes, Short Life Insurers? Ex-Blackrock Fund Manager
Discovers Disturbing Trends In Mortality

https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/fda-asks-the-court-to-delay-first
https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1489307561559871491
https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1477844961655607298
https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1488684713174659074
https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1488957594362269696
https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1489267697472839692
https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1489381254474596352
https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1489381270756872195
https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1489381258983444485
https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1489513164022579202
https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1489436153719627777
https://twitter.com/DrJBhattacharya/status/1489484841997402113

Four weeks ago, OneAmerica insurance company CEO Scott Davison
revealed that they had witnessed 'the highest death rates in the
history of this business - not just at OneAmerica' with a jump of '40%
over what they were pre-pandemic.' Interestingly, Davison noted that
the majority of deaths are not classified as due to Covid-19.

    So the CEO in his own words. They are mandating vaccines in the
workplace and raising premiums in lower vaccinated counties because
they are mistakenly guessing here initially. The premiums will change
to higher vaccinated areas as time moves on is my guess. He missed the
plot. pic.twitter.com/avjFxkn7su
    — Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) January 3, 2022

The implication to many was clear - that the Covid-19 vaccine is
linked to the excess mortality, and months of vaccine injury reports
were now spilling over to actuarial data - which is beginning to show,
among other things, that younger, working-age people began dying in
greater numbers as vaccine mandates hit - for a disease which
primarily kills older, non-working age individuals. The counter
argument, often presented without evidence, is that the increase is
due to people who postponed elective surgeries and other medical
treatments during the pandemic.

Ex-Blackrock fund manager Ed Dowd is in the former camp, and has spent
the last month analyzing breadcrumbs associated with a rise in excess
mortality vs. pre-pandemic levels. Given that we're now in the middle
of earnings season, there are some pretty big crumbs rolling out of
the insurance and funeral services industries which are beginning to
paint a disturbing picture.

A few key observations:

    Mortality worsened in 2021 vs. 2020 despite widespread vaccinations

    A spike in Mortality among younger, working-age individuals
coincided with vaccine mandates

    The spike in younger deaths peaked in Q3 2021 when Covid deaths
were extremely low (but rising into the end of September)

On Tuesday, financial insurance company Unum reported that their Life
segment saw an increase of 9% in their ratio of payouts vs. premiums
(Benefit ratio), a 17.4% increase in 2021 vs. 2020 despite widespread
vaccinations, and a 13.3% increase over 2019.

    In 2019 the unit had $266 million profit, last year a profit of
$82 million & this year a loss of -$192 million. A swing of $458
million lower over 2 years. Important to remember these are employed
working age folks. Other fun numbers:

    Q4 vs 2020= +21%
    Q4 vs 2019= +36%
    — Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) February 2, 2022

On Wednesday, Dowd noted that funeral home company Carriage Services
saw a 28% increase in September 2021 vs. 2020, and a 13% increase in
August vs. the same period. Funerals and cremations are up 12% and 13%
respectively on the quarter.

In general, funeral homes saw an uptick in business in Q3, and Dowd
will be closely monitoring Q4 reports which are expected around Feb.
15 - less than two weeks away.

    Business has been quite good since the introduction of the
vaccines & the stock was up 106% in 2021. Curious no?

    Guys this is shocking as 89% of Funeral homes are private in US.
We are seeing the tip of iceberg. The public companies report Q4
middle of February pic.twitter.com/M2rpNhIJzt
    — Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) February 2, 2022

Dowd also noted on Wednesday that Lincoln National's death claims are
up 13.7% y/y, and up 57% in Q4 vs. 2019. CFO Randy Frietag explained
on Thursday that in 2021, the share of young people dying from Covid
doubled in the second half of the year.

    Tom Gallagher of Evercore asked the question of Covid mortality
impact. That was the answer.

    Boom 💥 folks it’s clear as day what changed in second half of
2021. Variants less virulent than original but we had mandates &
boosters hitting. This is a total shit show to behold.
    — Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) February 3, 2022

Meanwhile, Reinsurance Group of America noted in their Thursday
earnings call that Q4 was impacted by a meaningful level of Covid-19
mortality claims despite the fact that the Covid-19 vaccines have been
around for more than a year.

    RGA: non-Covid claims are elevated due to “indirect” 🤔 effects of
Covid-19 pic.twitter.com/XHfgy4TSwS
    — Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) February 3, 2022

    Remind us again how the vaccines are helping?

    RGA: Life re-insurer reports profit in 4Q20 & a loss in 4Q21 on
higher mortality pic.twitter.com/j0yAjCd2wt
    — Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) February 3, 2022

Also noting a spike in younger deaths which peaked in Q3 2022, is
Hardford Insurance Group, which reported that mortality is up 32% from
2019 pre-covid levels, and 20% from 2020 pre-vaccine levels.

    …because fewer older people dying, but younger people are dying
more…🤔…very odd pic.twitter.com/CCfqXY3E3M
    — Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) February 4, 2022

mRNA inventor Dr. Robert Malone noted the troubling data in a recent
appearance on Steve Bannon's "War Room":

    Malone calling out bump in DOD data & Insurance company results
for death & disability. pic.twitter.com/hV5Gsjr4uv
    — Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) February 4, 2022

    Is there a fancy Latin name for the fallacy where someone points
out that a useless harmful covid mitigation measure is useless and
harmful, and lockdowners respond with a link to a chart that shows
covid kills people?
    — Jay Bhattacharya (@DrJBhattacharya) February 4, 2022

Some key questions for the insurance companies:

    What are the leading causes of death for 2020 and 2021?
    How many of those who died were vaccinated vs. unvaccinated?

Reinsurance Group of America, for example, reported a profit in Q4
2020 when the most of the population was unvaccinated and amid a
deadlier strain of Covid-19, yet they registered a loss in Q4 2021
with more than 60% of the country fully vaccinated (and around 75% who
have received at least one dose).

Perhaps this is why Pfizer is now actively fighting to suppress
research data submitted to the FDA for approval - while the
pharmaceutical giant and its peers continue to enjoy legal immunity
from vaccine injuries.

In closing, some tongue-in-cheek non investment advice from Dowd:

    Long funeral homes short life insurance. Not investment advice but
illustrates my point. One industry is growing the other is not. $SCI
$CSV pic.twitter.com/OIvUCQGdNX
    — Ed ☯️Free Thinker & Oracle (@DowdEdward) February 3, 2022