War re Ukraine: Thread

[grarpamp]

Eurasia's old ways about to restart...
Which side will assassinate who's family next...


Russian FSB Identifies Alleged Dugina Assassin

https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/15531419

At the turn of the 20th century the delicate fabric of social order in
Europe rested on a knife's edge. As imperial powers expanded their
empires, it was only a matter of time before conflict between them
would shatter peace in Europe. In that era, Russia found itself
against Europe's most powerful empires, namely Austria-Hungary and
Germany.

The fissure between those empires was cemented by the Bosnian Crisis
of 1908 which saw Austria-Hungary annex Bosnia and Herzegovina by
using Bulgaria's declaration of independence from the Ottoman Empire
as an advantageous political catalyst given its destabilization of the
Balkan region. Austria-Hungary's actions would provoke Russia to rise
to the defense of its Slavic brethren situated in Serbia and
Montenegro in a response that would forever alter how Russia would
align itself among the continental powers of Europe. While a
widespread conflict was averted by the amending the Treaty of Berlin,
the political climate the Bosnian Crisis cast would light the fuse for
the inevitable outbreak of WWI which was detonated with the
assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand by Bosnian-Serb nationalist
Gavrilo Princip.

As the war in Ukraine places Russia at familiar odds with the powers
of Europe yet again, the precarious position of ostensibly
unsustainable peace across the continent echoes on longer than a
century following the First World War. The tension illustrates the
axiom that nothing is new under the sun as the volatility of Europe in
2022 mirrors that in 1908. Russia's position against the European
hegemony vested in NATO is analogous to its stance in support of the
Slavic realm longer than a century ago. Now, following the
assassination of Darya Dugina, this century may have found its own
Franz Ferdinand.

The Russian Federal Security Service ("FSB") has claimed that the
assassination of Dugina was committed by a covert operative of
Ukraine. The FSB has identified Natalia Vovk as the alleged assassin.
"As a result of a complex of urgent operational-search measures, the
Federal Security Service has solved the murder of Russian journalist
Darya Dugina, born in 1992," the FSB announced, going on to emphasize
the culpibility of the Ukrainian government by stating that "the crime
was prepared and committed by the Ukrainian special services[.]"

According to the FSB's investigation, Vovk entered Russia in July
before situating herself in the same apartment building that Dugina
resided in. Vovk would then follow Dugina to the festival in which the
explosive device that led to her death was planted. Vovk, who was
accompanied by her 12-year old daughter, fled to Estonia following the
assassination, according to Russian intelligence. Following her
identification, Russian law enforcement agencies declared their intent
to seek her extradition.

FSB alleges that Ukrainian spy Natalia Vovk assassinated Darya Dugina.

Following Dugina's assassination, Ukraine was naturally implicated as
being behind the murder given her father's significant, albeit
enigmatic, reputation as one of Vladimir Putin's most influential
ideologues. Kiev urgently washed its hands of any involvement as
advisor Mykhailo Podolyak stated “Ukraine, of course, has nothing to
do with yesterday’s explosion[.]” Although Ukrainian officials denied
any involvement in the attack, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of
his anticipation that Dugina's murder would inextricably result in the
intensification Russia's military campaign.

TASS: PUTIN CALLS DUGINA MURDER DASTARDLY, BRUTAL CRIME

Given the reports of Vovk's escape to Estonia, the location of the
alleged assassin places Russia in a conflict against a NATO member
state even more directly than the proxy war in Ukraine has. In 2016,
the European Court of Justice set precedent which would justify any
extradition request for Vovk by Russia. The case law that set that
standard occurred when the court found that any member state of the
European Union is obligated to accommodate an extradition request of
any third-party non-member state even if the subject of the request is
not a citizen of the EU nation itself. This decision followed a case
in which Russia requested to have Estonian national Aleksei Petruhhin
extradited from Latvia for drug trafficking offenses.

The legal framework set by the European Court of Justice will place
Estonia in a crucible if Vovk has indeed found safe haven in the
Baltic state. In addition to joining the EU in 2004, Estonia joined
NATO that same year. The potential conflict arising between Estonia
and the Russian Federation has the potential to trigger Article 5 of
the NATO Charter which puts forth a collective defense clause meaning
that any military engagement with a NATO member state constitutes
action taken against the entire trans-Atlantic body whether it occurs
as far east as Tallinn or as far west as Hawai'i.

Article 5 has been constantly dangled before Russia as a Sword of
Damicles of sorts designed to dissuade any escalation of the Ukrainian
conflict. The veiled threat was most recently invoked in response to
Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and increased
military incursions by Ukrainian military forces into Crimea. “Any
deliberate damage causing potential radiation leak to a Ukrainian
nuclear reactor would be a breach of NATO’s Article 5,” said UK MP
Tobias Ellwood. His sentiments were echoed by US Congressman Adam
Kinzinger (R - IL) who followed Ellwood's declaration by stating “This
really isn’t even up for debate; any leak will kill people in NATO
countries, that’s an automatic article 5[.]" just hours before
Dugina's assassination.

While Article 5 of the NATO Charter has been used to threaten Russia
from intensifying any aggression, the officials who have constantly
cited the collective defense policy have done so under the pretense of
preventing any further aggression. The assassination of Darya Dugina
is a drastically different circumstance as Russia will surely perceive
any potential action it takes to have Vovk extradited from Estonia as
entirely justified and as a response to the murder, not an offensive
attack against a NATO member state. As the manhunt for Vovk ensures,
Europe again finds itself in the political crucible that enveloped the
continent following Gravrilo Princip's assassination of Archduke Franz
Ferdinand. However, in this historical iteration, it is the European
central powers who find themselves in a position of being the
aggressor that could provoke a catastrophic conflict with Russia.