Coronavirus: Thread

[grarpamp]

It's official, Democrats are more Ignorant than Republicans...


US Adults' Estimates Of COVID Hospitalization Risk Depends On Party,
Vaxx Status: Gallup

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimates-covid-hospitalization-risk.aspx

The American public's understanding of the effectiveness of COVID-19
vaccines may have been put to the test in recent weeks as national
public health leaders openly debated whether a booster shot is needed
for the general population. Meanwhile, a large gap in vaccination
rates persists between Democrats and Republicans, possibly reflecting
partisans' different views on the relative risks of COVID-19 versus
the vaccines.

In August, Gallup surveyed over 3,000 U.S. adults on their
understanding of the likelihood of hospitalization after contracting
COVID-19 among those who have versus have not been vaccinated. The
results show that most Americans overstate the risk of hospitalization
for both groups: 92% overstate the risk that unvaccinated people will
be hospitalized, and 62% overstate the risk for vaccinated people. At
the same time, U.S. adults are fairly accurate at estimating the
effectiveness of vaccines at preventing hospitalization, with the
median respondent putting it at 80%.

Democrats provide much higher vaccine efficacy estimates than
Republicans (88% vs. 50%), and unvaccinated Republicans have a median
vaccine efficacy of 0%, compared with 73% for vaccinated Republicans.
Background

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, political affiliation has been a
strong predictor of attitudes and behaviors related to disease risks
and mitigation. Gallup's monthly tracking of adult (18+) vaccination
rates in the U.S. reveals a deep political divide. As of September
2021, 92% of Democrats reported having had at least one dose of a
COVID-19 vaccine compared with 56% of Republicans.

Previous Gallup research has found that the American public has a poor
understanding of the true risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic
and that misperceptions vary by political party. In December 2020,
through the Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economics of Recovery Study, we
asked 5,000 U.S. adults: "As far as you know, what percentage of
people who have been infected by the coronavirus needed to be
hospitalized?" Only 18% provided the correct answer, which at that
time was between 1% and 5%, and a higher percentage of Republicans
(26%) gave the correct response than did Democrats (just 10%).
Likewise, experimental research from Gallup and Franklin Templeton
found that providing people information about high vaccine efficacy
led to greater acceptance of the vaccine.

Data from Gallup's most recent COVID-19 Panel survey, in August, is
especially relevant to the public's understanding of vaccine efficacy;
in recent weeks, the Biden administration, health officials, and many
in the media have expressed concerns about breakthrough infections
stemming from the Delta variant of SARS-CoV2, pointing to rising
infections, hospitalizations and deaths. On Aug. 18, the Department of
Health and Human Services announced that it was making plans for
administering booster shots to people who are already vaccinated,
pending FDA approval. This caused some debate among experts. For
example, on September 13, medical scholars published an analysis in a
leading journal concluding that "Current evidence does not appear to
show a need for boosting in the general population." Four days later,
on September 17, a U.S. Food and Drug Administration panel rejected
Pfizer's application for broad emergency use of a third dose, opting
instead to restrict such authorization for only select groups of
higher-risk persons.

In light of these debates, Gallup tested public understanding of the
efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines by asking 3,158 U.S. adults two
questions during a field period of August 16-22. The items tested
respondents' overall assessment of COVID hospitalization risks facing
vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, allowing researchers to
calculate the implied efficacy of vaccines.

The items were the following:

    As far as you know, what percentage of unvaccinated people have
been hospitalized due to the coronavirus?
    As far as you know, what percentage of fully vaccinated people
have been hospitalized due to the coronavirus?

The implied efficacy of vaccines is calculated by subtracting the
second response from the first and dividing by the first. If a
respondent answers that 10% of unvaccinated people have been
hospitalized from COVID and 5% of vaccinated people, this implies a
vaccine efficacy of 50%.
How the Public Understands Hospitalization Risk

For both vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, very few adults
reported a correct answer, which is less than one percent. See the
discussion in the appendix for details about the correct
hospitalization rates and efficacy estimates. Only 8% of U.S. adults
gave correct answers for the unvaccinated population and 38% for the
vaccinated population.

Partisanship was a strong predictor of accuracy, but party accuracy
varied by whether the respondent was assessing the risk of the
vaccinated or unvaccinated populations.

For unvaccinated hospitalization risk, 2% of Democrats responded
correctly, compared with 16% of Republicans. In fact, 41% of Democrats
replied that at least 50% of unvaccinated people have been
hospitalized due to COVID-19.

By contrast, Democrats were more likely to estimate hospitalization
risk for the vaccinated population correctly: 42% of Democrats
compared with 33% of Republicans correctly reported that less than one
percent of vaccinated people have been hospitalized. Very few
respondents thought the risks exceed 50% (only 2% of Democrats and 7%
of Republicans).

Public Understanding of Vaccine Efficacy

The relative reduction of risk from vaccination is known as the
efficacy estimate. U.S. CDC data suggest that vaccines are roughly 99%
effective at reducing hospitalizations. Careful studies that attempt
to compare people living in the same area who face similar risks find
efficacy rates around 95%, even against Delta variant, for the most
common vaccines found in the United States (Pfizer, Moderna).

We used individual responses to the items on hospitalization
probabilities for vaccinated and unvaccinated people to calculate an
implied efficacy rate, which is the percentage reduction in risk for
the vaccinated group. Again, partisanship is a strong predictor of the
accuracy of these estimates. U.S. adults estimated a median efficacy
rate of 80%, which is close to the actual rate. Democrats, however,
were even more accurate, with a median efficacy rate of 88%.
Republicans, however, expressed an efficacy rate of only 50%.

Vaccination status was also a strong predictor of efficacy estimates.
Unvaccinated Republicans reported risk rates that implied zero benefit
of vaccination -- an efficacy rate of 0%. By contrast, vaccinated
Republicans reported an estimated efficacy of 73%, much closer to the
truth. Unvaccinated Independents were also far off (12% efficacy), but
vaccinated independents were close (83%) to Democrats. For Democrats,
vaccination status made little difference, however. Unvaccinated
Democrats still reported 80% efficacy rates. Given previous studies on
the effects of the media and information during COVID, one possible
reason is that Democrats are more consistently exposed to information
that favorably portrays vaccine efficacy.

Discussion

Democrats are more likely to overstate hospitalization risks for
unvaccinated people, which may fuel efforts, often led by Democratic
Party leaders, to enforce both mask and vaccine mandates. At the same
time, Republicans overstate risks to vaccinated people, leading to
very low vaccine efficacy estimates. This may be one of the reasons
that so many Republicans have been reluctant to get the COVID-19
vaccine. Previous research links these behavioral patterns to
differences in information exposure. If so, vaccine acceptance is
unlikely to significantly increase among Republicans until their
trusted media or other information sources emphasize the benefits of
vaccination.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/323378/new-experiment-shows-boost-covid-vaccine-acceptance.aspx