USA 2020 Elections: Thread

grarpamp grarpamp at
Wed Nov 3 01:43:18 PDT 2021

> Terry McAuliffe Hires Controversial Ex-Clinton Lawyer Marc Elias

Loser McAuliffe loses.

VA Governor Race Called For Republican Youngkin

With over 70% of the votes counted, Decision Desk has called the race
for Republican newcomer Glenn Youngkin who holds a 9 pts lead over
Democratic Terry McAuliffe.

Additionally @Redistrict has called the race for Youngkin...

    I've seen enough: Glenn Youngkin (R) defeats Terry McAuliffe (D)
in the Virginia governor's race. #VAGOV
    — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021

Matt Walsh is pretty clear on who's to blame (to thank) for this
Republican victory (notably McAuliffe won Loudon 55-44, but
@Redistrict forecast that he would need a 14pts lead to support a
state-wide win)...

    I want to thank the Loudoun County school board. None of this
would have been possible without you. Tonight’s result was your
handiwork. Congratulations!
    — Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) November 3, 2021

And Donald Trump, Jr has some thoughts for President Biden...

    When Biden wakes up tomorrow afternoon, somebody’s gonna have to
tell him he’s now officially presiding over the collapse of the
Democrat party
    — Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) November 3, 2021

MSNBC is taking it well...

    MSNBC is taking it well
    — Benny (@bennyjohnson) November 3, 2021

*  *  *

Update (2030ET): In a somewhat stunning - yet completely predictable -
turn of events, Fairfax County - the largest and most prosperous in
the state - has reportedly missed its self-imposed deadline to count
early ballots.

Terry McAuliffe’s campaign says Fairfax County will not meet their
self-imposed deadline of 8pm to count early votes. A portion of the
early votes in Fairfax County need to be rescanned and there is no set
timeline for that yet.

His staff says that could delay the results.

    Breaking: Fairfax County, Virginia has announced that they are
*RE-SCANNING* ballots and will be releasing their vote totals later
    — Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) November 2, 2021

The problem was reportedly with a thumb drive of the early ballots...

    Fairfax County is rescanning roughly 20,000 ballots from early
voting sites after there was a technical issue with a thumb drive the
votes are stored on, according to a Fairfax County official.
    Official says there is a paper trail of votes cast and are working
on it now at wusa9
    — Kolbie Satterfield (@KolbieReports) November 3, 2021

This is not good for 'faith in democracy'...

    Regardless of cause, delayed results from Fairfax County - the
pivotal county in the commonwealth of Virginia - is REALLY BAD for
public trust.
    — Ian Haworth (@ighaworth) November 3, 2021

*  *  *

Update (2000ET): Voter turnout is reportedly very strong, on track to
break 3 million votes, exceeding the 2017 record:

    Based on local turnout reports, VA is on track to break 3 million
votes, which would surpass gubernatorial record of 2.6M set in 2017.

    Not clear which side that benefits, but this isn't a scenario in
which turnout in blue areas is falling through the floor. #VAGOV
    — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021

Notably, Virginia tends to punish the president’s party. In the last
12 Virginia gubernatorial elections, the president’s party has won
only once.

Obviously, a Youngkin win would be a boost for Republican prospects to
take control of both chambers of Congress.

*  *  *

Today is the last day for Virginians to vote in what has become an
unexpectedly close race for governor between former Democratic Gov.
Terry McAuliffe and newcomer Republican candidate, Glenn Youngkin -
who has gained considerable ground in recent days.

Political watchers across the country are keeping tabs on this year's
race as a proxy for the political mood, as the outcome may offer
insight into what might be ahead for both parties in the 2022 midterm

>From the beginning, Democrats expected McAuliffe to coast into the
Governor's mansion in a state which saw Biden beat Trump by 10 points
in the last election - yet Youngkin has gained massive ground after
focusing on parents' anger over schools - which includes pandemic
mandates and critical race theory. McAuliffe, meanwhile, said during a
debate with Youngkin "I don’t think parents should be telling schools
what they should teach," a decidedly poor move.

    McAuliffe’s campaign has faltered amid anecdotal accounts of an
apathetic Democratic voter base. Biden’s standing in the commonwealth
is mediocre, with his approval rating in the low 40s in several polls.

    The upshot is that Youngkin appears to have the momentum going
into Election Day on Tuesday. The level of enthusiasm at recent
campaign events has been tangibly greater for Youngkin, even in the
Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia suburbs. -The Hill

Meanwhile, the University of Virginia's Center for Politics has
shifted its opinion of the race from "leans Democratic" to "leans

     “Youngkin has the enthusiasm, the environment, the history, and
perhaps even the issues (given his focus on education and its
increasing salience in polling). McAuliffe has the state’s Democratic
lean in his favor. However, we do feel we owe it to readers to push
this race one way or the other and not just move it to a Toss-Up
rating at the end. So we’re moving from Leans Democratic to Leans

PredictIt has Youngkin with a significant lead.

The shift comes after McAuliffe spent considerable time pressing his
Democratic colleagues on Capitol Hill to pass two major bills in order
to show that Democrats are able to capitalize on their slim majority
in Congress - yet fighting within the party has resulted in a
political quagmire.

And as the New York Post notes, what's going on in Virginia may be
part of a 30-year political epicycle in which a Democrat wins the
White House and then 'lurches left' - causing a backlash that
reverberates to off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey.

    In 1993 it was Bill Clinton, who ran for office as a “new kind of
Democrat,” promising to “end welfare as we know it” and pledging not
to raise taxes on the middle class. Instead Clinton moved left,
dumping his welfare reform promise in favor of an unpopular
nationalized health care scheme that a Democratic Congress never even
put to a vote, raising taxes on the middle class, and promoting the
boutique liberal cause of gays in the military (though ultimately
settling for the muddle of “don’t ask, don’t tell”).

    Republicans swept the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey
in 1993 and made large gains in both state legislatures, previewing
the GOP landslides in the House and Senate in 1994, when Republicans
gained 54 seats in the House for their first House majority in 40
years, and eight seats in the Senate that also gave the GOP a
majority. Clinton immediately tacked to the center and remained there
for the rest of his presidency.

The pattern repeated itself in 2009 following Barack Obama's sharp
left turn from the vague platform of "hope and change," leading to
Republicans to once again capture the governorships of Virginia and
New Jersey that year.

A win for Youngkin would be a massive boost to Republicans nationwide
- and would add to President Biden's woes which include failing
approval ratings, supply chain issues, inflation, and absolute chaos
trying to get his legislative agenda passed.

As The Hill's Niall Stanage notes, "Even a narrow win for Democrats in
Virginia would likely not be enough to calm the party’s nerves as it
looks towards next year’s midterm elections — and beyond, to the 2024
presidential election where they fear the specter of Trump will be

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