Coronavirus: Thread

grarpamp grarpamp at gmail.com
Tue Jun 22 02:34:09 PDT 2021


https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/06/the_damage_done_by_probability_blindness.html

[Damage done by remaining blind to politicians is far greater]

The Damage Done By Probability Blindness
by Ron Ross

As Bishop Joseph Butler said in 1736, "probability is the very guide of life."

The coronavirus has generated more blind fear than perhaps any other
event in recorded history.  That fear is blind because it ignores
easily calculated probabilities.

The reported coronavirus deaths in the U.S. now stand at six hundred
thousand.  The population of the U.S. is approximately 330 million.
When you divide deaths by the population, the number is less than two
tenths of one percent.  As catastrophes go, that is a relatively small
number.

There is a wide disparity of coronavirus deaths among age groups.

That fact has been deliberately ignored by the authorities and the media.

Eighty percent of all deaths have occurred in the over 65 population
even though that age group constitutes only 16 percent of the total
population.  The number of deaths in that group is 464 thousand.  The
total population of Americans 65 and older is 51 million.  Dividing
the deaths by that population gives you a probability of 0.0089, or
nine tenths of one percent.

The number of COVID deaths in the 49 and younger age group is
twenty-seven thousand.  The total number of Americans in that age
group is 233 million.  Again, dividing the deaths by the corresponding
population gives you a probability of 0.00011, or one one hundredth of
one percent.  A probability that small is often described as "not
significantly different from zero."

Comparing the young and old age groups reveals that the 49 and younger
age group's risk of COVID death is ninety times less than the 65 and
older age group's.

There has been virtually no difference in policies in regard to
various age groups.  It has been the costliest application of a "one
size fits all" approach ever.

There would have been far fewer deaths and much less disruption of our
lives if the bulk of the attention had been focused on the over 65 age
group.  Rest homes should have been quarantined.  Schools should never
have been closed.  Masks were unnecessary for anyone 50 or younger.

If health officials and the media had acted responsibly, they would
have informed the public about these probabilities.  They haven't even
tried because their objective has been to raise anxiety, not reduce
it.

Politicians and public health officials have a very low estimate of
the intelligence of the general public and an extremely high (and
unjustified) estimate of their own intelligence.  They believe their
deliberate concealment of facts is admirable.

We know far more now about the coronavirus than when it began, and
what we know is very encouraging.  Telling the public the truth,
however, would expose health officials and the media for the politics
behind their incompetence.  They would have to admit that most of the
pain and damage they've created has been totally unnecessary.


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