200,000

[Peter Fairbrother]

On 16/09/2020 21:59, jim bell wrote:
> Within the last couple of weeks, I saw a news item that  vitamin D-3 
> helps keep COVID-19 patients out of the hospital.
> 
> https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88456
> 
> However, there is such a thing as "too much" Vitamin-D.

It's more like a lack of vitamin D makes you more likely to die from 
COVID, and over 30% of US citizens lack vitamin D.

Possible 18% reduction in mortality if everyone took a thousand IU daily 
- but after that increasing the dose does not further improve protection 
against COVID.

There is a trend - possibly a fad - to take 5,000 IU daily or more, but 
that isn't necessary for COVID. I do take 5,000 IU/d, but I take that 
much for specific circulatory reasons, not for general health or COVID 
protection. For most people 5,000 IU may be too much, and it is more 
than the IOM Tolerable Upper Intake Level of 4,000 IU/d.


But if you don't already take vitamin D, start now. 1,000 IU once a day. 
Very cheap, buck a month, could save your life.

Also protects against heart disease. :)


> Also, search 'covid ivermectin'

Doesn't seem to work, or at least not very well. Promoted by many of the 
same people who promoted chloroquine, incidentally.

>   and 'covid famotidine'.

That one seems to work a bit, but I don't know how well.

But then there is dexamethasone/hydrocortisone, with a 30%+ reduction in 
mortality.

Remdesivir, probably not. But beta-interferon and plasma look promising.




Treatment has improved and is still improving since my estimate in 
February of 4 million US deaths - and the virus may have become a little 
less lethal.

Now I'd think it is trending to a little over 2 million US dead if no 
vaccine is invented.


But I thought I'd hold a moment of silence for the 200,000 already dead 
in the US, and the million dead globally.


Peter Fairbrother


> On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 04:47:56 AM PDT, Peter Fairbrother 
> <peter at tsto.co.uk> wrote:
> 
> 
> On 28/02/2020 22:09, Peter Fairbrother wrote:
> 
> 
>  > Best data I have seen for COVID-19 mortality is from 50 in 10,000 or
>  > 0.5% for the young-and-fit to 1,500 in 10,000 or 15% for those over 75
>  > and those with pre-existing heart disease. Diabetes and COPD are also
>  > bad co-morbidities to have, at about 10% mortality.
>  >
>  > COVID-19 seems to kill mostly the elderly, but not nearly as exclusively
>  > as 'flu. The young-and-fit are also very much at risk.
>  >
>  > This would give an overall mortality rate of about 150-200 per 10,000 or
>  > 1.5%-2%. With an estimated 65% of the US population catching COVID-19
>  > that would be 4 million US deaths: much worse than AIDS, and potentially
>  > the worst pandemic since the Plague.
> 
> 
> 
> Peter Fairbrother