200,000

[Peter Fairbrother]

On 28/02/2020 22:09, Peter Fairbrother wrote:

> Best data I have seen for COVID-19 mortality is from 50 in 10,000 or 
> 0.5% for the young-and-fit to 1,500 in 10,000 or 15% for those over 75 
> and those with pre-existing heart disease. Diabetes and COPD are also 
> bad co-morbidities to have, at about 10% mortality.
> 
> COVID-19 seems to kill mostly the elderly, but not nearly as exclusively 
> as 'flu. The young-and-fit are also very much at risk.
> 
> This would give an overall mortality rate of about 150-200 per 10,000 or 
> 1.5%-2%. With an estimated 65% of the US population catching COVID-19 
> that would be 4 million US deaths: much worse than AIDS, and potentially 
> the worst pandemic since the Plague.



Peter Fairbrother