Coronavirus: Thread

grarpamp grarpamp at
Sun May 17 22:17:04 PDT 2020

Deaths resolved: 14.6%, prudence factor, do you feel lucky
Active load: +1.3% per day, triage factor, increasing since start,
physical limits exhaust
Total death: 1.7% per day, panic factor is 2nd derivative, negative
since mid April
Total cases: 2.1% per day
Population relevance: 0.06156% case 0.00406% dead

resolved = dead / (recovered + dead)

If the "recovered" and "active" cases numbers on the sites
were accurate, then at least another 383k dead
could be expected from today's global status alone.
That's 14k/day dead when generously alotted a next four
week time-to-die window, or about twice the highest prior
daily death rate. Compare also to 381k dead to date.
So those numbers seem to be quite bug ridden.
Various studies of infection fatality rates ranging from
1% into 10's% in some areas and times.
And in at least China, can't even trust numbers in the ground.

More information about the cypherpunks mailing list