Behind the curve. The mathematics of deaths.

[Zig the N.g]

On Thu, Mar 12, 2020 at 09:54:54PM +0000, Peter Fairbrother wrote:
> Please recirculate freely.
> 
> 
> Behind the curve. The mathematics of deaths.
> 
> The present United Kingdom strategy on COVID-19 was to initially try to
> contain the virus with a weak containment policy, and when that failed to move
> to the "delay phase" we are in now to try to slow its spread. This delay would
> place a lower maximum load on healthcare, spread heathcare requirements over
> time, and thereby allow more per-patient care.
> 
> An underlying assumption and consequential end result of that policy is that
> practically everybody in the UK will inevitably eventually catch the virus.

s/assumption/intention/

TFTFY.


> And the Red Death will hold illimitable dominion over all.

Racist terminology - please re-read the Bee's guide to non-racist terminology.


> The strategy made sense if, as was believed when it was made, there would be
> no way of eventually stopping the epidemic by containment, something I myself
> believed.

You are truly a seer.


> However, that does not seem to be the case: the disease is not quite as
> infectious as at first thought,

Au-contraire, a quick check of le Wakky:

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

conclusively shows us that COVID-19 is literally far more infectious than the Spanish flu - and man, that Spanish flu was no shrinking violet, as it (according to the inglorious Wakky) literally infected a minimum of 140% up to possibly 280%, of the entire world's population!

So it looks like with COVID-19, we could well see upwards of 400 to 500% of the ENTIRE WORLD's POPULATION get infected.

Imagine the deaths!


> as recent evidence shows that the Chinese have
> managed to slow it almost to a stop using strong confinement.
> 
> If they succeed in containing the disease, as seems very likely, then most
> Chinese people will never catch the virus

Do we know yet if the virus, after incubation period, entirely stops being contagious?  Do we know yet for certain there is no latent/dormancy in those who "once had" been infected?


> - whereas if the present UK policy
> is continued then at some point a majority of people in the UK will catch the
> disease, and a million people will die unnecessarily [1].

And you're holding that to be a bad thing, even if it does happen?

 [Damn!  Did I just ask that?  Talk about effective long term propaganda ...]


> So what new policy should be adopted? Well we have the Chinese example to
> follow. Strong containment is working for the Chinese, it should work for us.

That will SO reduce the toilet paper grab-arse!


> All people entering the UK should be quarantined.

s/entering //

TFTFY!#!


> The UK has a "moat" in the
> seas surrounding it, and should take advantage of that.

By dropping most "native UK"ians from helicopters into the moat, closely followed by crocodiles!


> Schools and universities should close. Large public gatherings should be
> banned.

But that might reduce the infection rate of this "just the flu bro"?


> People should be encouraged to wear masks, not discouraged

Which masks, exactly, are you suggesting?  Remember, any incorrect answer is a life and death thing for some...


> - even a tiny
> difference in transmission rate can be the straw which will make the
> difference between the epidemic dying out or growing:

Acktschuallay, one theory is that today, ~100 years on, we ALL are infected with Spanish flu - we, of course, are the survivors...

(Call the Spanish flu COVID-1918, or COVID-18 for short...)


> that is how the chain
> reaction of an epidemic works. If each infected person infects more than one
> other person on average then the epidemic spreads, if on average each infected
> person infects less than one then the epidemic dies out.

Bat soup, bruh! The bird bat soup will always bring back the COVID-19.

If you're susceptible and fearful, better to die out and let those who are resistant claim all the leftover gibs.


> We should be taking extreme measures to get that figure of new infections per
> case down to less than 1.

How extreme?

I hear a bullet can reduce the areal transmission boundary for an individual...


> Testing should be stepped up by at least an order of
> magnitude.

I do agree with this one - given the infection rate of say (on average for COVID-19) 500% of the population, we should have at least a 600% (/ population) testing rate to get on top of this.


> Medical staff should have the power to require testing, and if
> positive then quarantine should be enforced if necessary.

Vaccinations.  Don't forget the mandatory vaccinations.  Perhaps the cultlery enriched London should lead the charge on preventative COVID-19 vaccinations - I know I'd avoid a vaccine that you poms ave not tested properly first.  Right-e-o then, duty to the kingdom ya know, so get to it - stiff upper lip an' all! Get testing already.


> But most of all, we have to stop thinking that a million people will die and
> there is nothing we can do to prevent it.

You needed to put some of that in all caps - too many folks will miss the subliminal message you sent out otherwise.  Here, I is fix it for you:

  > But most of all, WE HAVE TO STOP THINKING.  A MILLION PEOPLE WILL DIE.
  > THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO TO PREVENT IT.

There, Fixed That For Ya!


> Diligent and intense containment

We could make the vaccinations more intense by inserting the needle into the buttocks really slowly.

Then the nurse can laugh, apologize, say they missed the right spot, and do it all over again, really slowly, this time in the shoulder.


> can work if we are willing to pay the price
> now, the Chinese example is proof of that. Any delay in implementing strong
> containment will cost lives. Failing to implement strong confinement will
> result in a million unnecessary deaths over the next few months.

On a more serious note, given the UK is an island with a moat, then on a global scale it is a very reasonable proposition to send all COVID-19 infectees to the "UK as a quarantine station".


> [1] "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic." - Joe Stalin.

Ah finally, you're coming around to the Z.g's point of view!

I always suspected you were a closet fascist!  Agree now: it feels much better to be honest about your truth.


> The UK age demographic contains more older people than the Chinese, and older

Are you sure?  There's a lot of Chinese in (the now multiple) China town(s) across the UK?  You might be right that there are more older people in the UK than the Chinese people in the UK, but your stats might be off on this one...


> people are far more likely to die of COVID-19 than younger people; so the UK
> fatality rate would be more than the Chinese rate, which works out to a bit
> over a million deaths if we assume 3/4 of the population get the virus.

3/4?  That's only 75%!  You're an order of magnitude off the science bro!  At -best- (according to wiki) it should be a minimum of over 400% of the world's population..


> A delay to provide better health care might reduce the death toll to about a
> million. Strong confinement now could reduce it to a few thousand.
> Peter Fairbrother