Expected duration of the Corona virus threat?

[Razer]

A WhooHoo Flu mortality chart so far.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/images10/corona17-s.jpg

As you can see you're more liable to get clobbered with a stray part
that fell of a jetliner and certainly more liable to get killed by a
stray bullet fired by an off-duty pig.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/coronavirus-globally.html

Rr

Ps. "Wearing a mask, unless it is a special N-95 respirator which also
makes it difficult to breathe, does not prevent one from catching the
virus. "

Be very afraid, of the flu. Die of your fears. Leaves more air for the
rest of us.






On 2/28/20 2:09 PM, Peter Fairbrother wrote:
> On 27/02/2020 15:01, Georgi Guninski wrote:
>> What is the expected duration of the Corona virus threat?
>
> Healthwise, best guess worst case, the dying should be over in a
> couple of years. Worst guess best case, a couple of months.
>
>>
>> Not only death counts, include fear, social, technological
>> and economic threats.
>
> Long-term consequences could be very long-term, initially ten years or
> so? Think of it like 9/11 but with a lot more dying.
>
>>
>> And what is the mortality rate of common flu?
>
> It varies quite a lot depending on the kind of 'flu, weather etc, but
> for seasonal 'flu about 1 in 10,000 or 0.01% per year is about
> average. A twentieth of that rate for children and the young and
> healthy. That's for everybody, including people who don't get flu.
>
> In a year, on average, about 20% of people get 'flu. This is mainly
> because of vaccination - it would probably be about 65% without
> vaccination. The death rate for people with 'flu is about 5 in 10,000.
>
> So say 65 million cases of 'flu in the US per year, with 30,000 US
> deaths per year, almost entirely the old - child deaths from seasonal
> flu in the US are only about 150 per year.
>
> 'Flu has been given the sobriquet "the old man's friend" - on the
> theory that it is better dying over a week from 'flu than over months
> or years from cancer, Alzheimer's, COPD etc. Gives friends and family
> time to say goodbye, but the patient doesn't suffer much or for too
> long. And seasonal 'flu kills the elderly almost exclusively.
>
>
> Pandemic 'flu can kill at much higher rates - the 1918 pandemic had a
> death rate of well over 10% of the ~17% of the population who got it
> during the first six months of the pandemic, though death rates
> decreased later. This was also an all-age death spread, the
> fit-and-healthy died about as often as the elderly.
>
>
>
>
> Best data I have seen for COVID-19 mortality is from 50 in 10,000 or
> 0.5% for the young-and-fit to 1,500 in 10,000 or 15% for those over 75
> and those with pre-existing heart disease. Diabetes and COPD are also
> bad co-morbidities to have, at about 10% mortality.
>
> COVID-19 seems to kill mostly the elderly, but not nearly as
> exclusively as 'flu. The young-and-fit are also very much at risk.
>
> This would give an overall mortality rate of about 150-200 per 10,000
> or 1.5%-2%. With an estimated 65% of the US population catching
> COVID-19 that would be 4 million US deaths: much worse than AIDS, and
> potentially the worst pandemic since the Plague.
>
>
>
> What could change that? Well, that figure is for people with at least
> semi-decent health care. If society and health care break down (this
> is unlikely to happen) US mortality could reach 15 million or more. On
> the other hand extra-good healthcare might bring it down a bit.
>
> Coronaviruses mutate fairly rapidly, and for something like 2019-nCoV
> these mutations generally tend towards less lethal varieties. So you
> might still see a lot of sick people but with a lot fewer deaths.
>
>
> It is also not impossible to make a vaccine in a fairly short time -
> or make 10 vaccines, quickly test them for safety, then fuck the
> effectiveness testing and just give people the best-looking 3 or 4
> safe ones. That could be done in about 3-4 months if lots of people
> were dying and some otherwise-sensible rules were set aside.
>
> Antiviral drugs might also work, but ignoring licensing these are
> expensive and slow to make and of uncertain efficacy. It took quite a
> while for an effective AIDS cocktail to be worked out.
>
>
> I don't have much hope that containment will stop the disease, but it
> is worth trying; if nothing else in order to slow down the spread of
> the infection. This gives more time for creating treatments and
> treatment plans, hospital preparedness, a slower case rate requires
> less treatment capacity and allows more treatment per patient, and so on.
>
>
> People might (!would!) argue the numbers in this post a little, but I
> think they are at least roughly correct. The COVID-19 numbers might be
> a bit low as it is in many cases still too early to predict the outcome.
>
> Peter Fairbrother


-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: signature.asc
Type: application/pgp-signature
Size: 833 bytes
Desc: OpenPGP digital signature
URL: <https://lists.cpunks.org/pipermail/cypherpunks/attachments/20200228/5b3bd8c5/attachment.sig>