On presidents and death
grarpamp at gmail.com
Tue Mar 26 00:25:36 PDT 2019
On 3/26/19, Georgi Guninski <guninski at guninski.com> wrote:
> President of the United States. Of these, eight presidents have died
> Of the five Bulgarian Presidents since 1990 two lost a child
> The conclusion is left as an exercise for the reader, because the
> margin is too small.
Aren't prediction markets meant to ascertain the likelihood
of whether, and if so even perhaps when, such events as
Trump and Ivanka perishing in a joint accident, might
As opposed to the certainty of a market evaluating
the Sun rising this Sunday or not, what is the expected
margin of error a strong well established market might
bring to such unusually difficult predictions as above?
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