On presidents and death

[grarpamp]

On 3/26/19, Georgi Guninski <guninski at guninski.com> wrote:
> https://j.ludost.net/blog/archives/2019/03/26/on_presidents_and_death/index.html

> President of the United States. Of these, eight presidents have died
> Of the five Bulgarian Presidents since 1990 two lost a child

> The conclusion is left as an exercise for the reader, because the
> margin is too small.

Aren't prediction markets meant to ascertain the likelihood
of whether, and if so even perhaps when, such events as
Trump and Ivanka perishing in a joint accident, might
actually occur?

As opposed to the certainty of a market evaluating
the Sun rising this Sunday or not, what is the expected
margin of error a strong well established market might
bring to such unusually difficult predictions as above?

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_who_died_in_office
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_state_of_Bulgaria