MIT Technology Review: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich?

[Ryan Carboni]

It is because you never attended the right orgy. Maybe chance goes
into it, but it isn't like there is a civil service exam for CEOs.

Computer models are useless, they only take into account success but
never optimize against failure.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610395/if-youre-so-smart-why-arent-you-rich-turns-out-its-just-chance/

The most successful people are not the most talented, just the
luckiest, a new computer model of wealth creation confirms. Taking
that into account can maximize return on many kinds of investment.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/10/the-computer-that-predicted-the-us-would-win-the-vietnam-war/542046/

“There’s the old apocryphal story that in 1967, they went to the
basement of the Pentagon, when the mainframe computers took up the
whole basement, and they put on the old punch cards everything you
could quantify. Numbers of ships, numbers of tanks, numbers of
helicopters, artillery, machine gun, ammo—everything you could
quantify,” says James Willbanks, the chair of military history at U.S.
Army Command and General Staff College. “They put it in the hopper and
said, ‘When will we win in Vietnam?’ They went away on Friday and the
thing ground away all weekend. [They] came back on Monday and there
was one card in the output tray. And it said, 'You won in 1965.’”