[Cryptography] Krugman blockchain currency skepticism

[grarpamp]

[Resending four replies in one to participants bcc uncensored cypherpunks,
as censorship on an already moderator approved, thus explicitly
moderator solicited,
variety thread where moderator already censored the queue twice
resent, and moderator
approved questions by posters in thread were left unanswered and
silently ignored
via moderators censorship... is hypocritical, especially so for topics
within charter...
"technical, social, political, security, privacy, legal, and
multinational aspects of
cryptosystems". Cheers all and enjoy the sunlight, tis all.]



On Mon, Aug 6, 2018 at 4:11 PM, Benjamin Kreuter <brk7bx at virginia.edu> wrote:
> On Mon, 2018-08-06 at 14:11 +0800, jamesd at echeque.com wrote:

> As others have asked, what is the problem we want to solve?  The
> beginning of this thread was a proposal that the problem is that the
> government might target an activist group's finances.  Now it sounds
> like you are talking about the government trying to attack the entire
> payment system.

That is indeed a valid problem.
Among many others in many sectors and applications.

>> A crypto currency needs to be centerless - it needs to able to
>> survive the seizure of key servers by a hostile powerful party.

True, a properly decentralized cryptocurrency has no such
seizable / sueable servers.

Decentralization is under attack in more ways than most people
realize, not just by the purposeful noise deluge of junk / centralized
coins, tokens, ico's... but also by very insidious methods.
As an example...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYHFrf5ci_g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BZoKH-hX_o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKYEQVPklLI
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=bitcoin+censorship
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/6rxw7k/informative_btc_vs_bch_articles/dl8v4lp/

Whether you're a user, code / crypto developer, business,
whatever... you need to understand these things and be able
to spot them, call them out, and exchange and adopt away
from them once they happen. In the cryptocurrency space,
there is no birthright, let alone against treason, or any other
lesser offense.

A bit more from the series...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOZaLbUUZUs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgts1qb0hLY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGrUOLsC9cw

> Get back to me when the Internet itself cannot be shut down by the
> government.

For so long as free speech, encryption, and overlay networks exist,
cryptocurrency and the internet cannot be shutdown. If you accept,
either personally or as a populace, the shutting of your connection
and or the disablement of your crypto, for mere agnostic tool use,
and for no provable reason otherwise, then you're fucked.
If the Four Hoursemen of the Infocalypse didn't do it already, then the
only thing left is a bonafide threat to the existance of government itself...
to its taxes collected by force. Once people worldwide start to figure out
they can bypass the redundancy, inefficiency, non choice, war, etc of
governments by moving their transactions onto the encrypted blockchain
networks... that's the last game... you either sheeple out forever into a
questionable existance, or make your stand. Don't be a sheeple..

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=banks+fear+bitcoin
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=governments+fear+bitcoin




On Mon, Aug 6, 2018 at 6:05 PM, John Levine <johnl at iecc.com> wrote:
> In article <CAD2Ti29oru2WUyQ01gr+UL1M-cAAvj0ZuVraPGeULnYz7TqtvQ at mail.gmail.com>,
> grarpamp <grarpamp at gmail.com> wrote:
>> Cryptocurrency value moved every month is 30x paypal's and growing.
>> Ten more years and those 200 million users will be on cryptocurrency.
>
> Paypal's current transaction volume is about $40 billion/month,
> growing at a modest rate.  Can you tell us where you get your number
> of $1.2 trillion/month for cryptocurrencies?

> https://www.statista.com/statistics/277841/paypals-total-payment-volume/

That should have been ~3x (2.7x) coming from just the BTC value volume
moved, and ~385B$/mo for the entire cryptocurrency space, both using
today's coinmarketcap rates.

Paypal is also doing ~295 tx/s, which might just be eclipsed by
even early iterations of below stress work with a single cryptocurrency
(even more when summing the current capabilities of top 10
decentralized cryptos for example representing and carrying
the market space for tx / tps)...

https://stresstestbitcoin.cash/

~25.6M tx/d will beat Paypal, with perhaps only 33% of that needed
to make news waves.

Paypal claims ~245M "active" users, or 3.2% of world pop, which
smells a little fishy. BTC alone has ~55M utxo's, consolidated
down into owned wallets at recent oppurtunity from peak of ~68M,
some study estimates try taking that down further to approx body count.
Cryptocurrency has no worries there either, and again, starts
making waves before then.

And Paypal has never made the world's daily syndicated TV
and print news like cryptocurrency has.

Regardless of which sources you choose, cryptocurrency
is close at the heels of Paypal, already biting off chunks in
some areas, including philosophical ones. Expect Paypal to
be completely eclipsed by cryptocurrency in five years or less.



>>> If an issuer doesn't redeem a bill
>>> what recourse do you have other than to denounce him?

>> Cryptocurrency... you either have the keys and value or you don't.

> I don't want a wallet hash

That's smart, because whoever told you you could
spend such a construct is a fraud.

> these were bills redeemable in real assets.
> I want my kilo of platinum or whatever.
> What's my recourse when the platinum doesn't show up?

Precisely, such bills are a risk with variable recourse.

"Bills of exchange by different issuers"

The blockchain takes care of issues with "issuers" "bills" and
reputation, you either have the confirmed spend or you don't,
and you're stupid if you walk off before you do.
And the market takes care what other "assets" one can
get in "exchange" for the UTXO's you're about to spend.
You're of course free to make and sign whatever other
contracts / bills you want, call them private pegs / tethers
if it makes you happy, and accept all their risks.
This is basically arguing volatility again, and what cryptocurrency
is saying, Neo, is that you won't need to.

[1] Those who argue volatility against decentralized cryptocurrency
shouldn't do so as what they're saying is they...
- really want centralized regulated fiat equivalents
- clearly don't get that *of course* by their very nature decentralized
cryptocurrencies are *expected* to be "volatile" early on.
This is an innate feature, not a bug.


But hey while people are on the "volatility" tip, look at all the
other *volatile* central regulated fiats out there both new and old...
https://wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_date_of_formation
https://wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_currencies

And lots of other reasons you might not want them...
https://wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_former_sovereign_states
https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_historical_geopolitical_changes

All that pegging, tethering, backing, and government guns people say
gives [nonvolatile] value... doesn't seem to be doing a very good job of it.

Perhaps it's time the world, and you, tries something truly different,
for once, in like thousands of years, of not doing so, lol.

It's out there, and could be in your wallet today,
and spent in some equitable trade tomorrow.



# others
> Obviously, you can be cut off by governments, payment processors,
> exchanges, [etc list of formal entities]

Nowhere in those blurbs was the direct P2P functionality of decentralized
cryptocurrencies  mentioned... much harder to cut that off without nuking
the underlying [sneaker] nets, the difficulty of that mentioned in
another thread.

> Reputation is entirely based upon non-repudiation, and liability (provably
> having sufficient real assets to cover their outstanding balance).
> Blockchain currency doesn't have either of those properties.

Neither does fiat. Try and invent them on top of them
if you want.

> Manafort is also learning

About decentralized cryptocurrencies, and the gold watch,
along with the rest of the world's people.






On Mon, Aug 6, 2018 at 7:24 PM, Bill Frantz <frantz at pwpconsult.com> wrote:
> OK, I can't resist any longer. Let's look at some payment and store of value
> systems:

Ok...

> Gold metal:

> Terrible for electronic payment.

Transferring electronic stock in GLD, or other forms of gold securities,
works fine, is slow and a lot of paperwork, but most would be terribly
happy to receive it instead of being stiffed.

> Likely to be accepted anywhere fiat currencies are weak.

Like Venezuela, Greece, Zimbabwe, etc... anyplace undergoing any volatility
or inflation event, now or past, since gold was removed / banned from standard
worldwide... anyone have links to news articles where any economically
significant fraction of the affected populous in such places was carrying
around and using gold instead of wheelbarrows full of fiat? None?

> Can be converted to fiat currencies where they are strong

Everything is convertible to any other thing, wherever and whenever,
doesn't mean you or your counterparty will want to,
at times it might be best to drop it in the rubbish, or keep it.

> Can be converted to fiat currencies, but the transaction may have to be reported.

"Have to" vs "is" vs "you volunteered" info are different things.

> If you become a refugee, gold can be carried with you.

Up to your limited capacity to securely carry weight and bulk.

> Can be stolen at gunpoint.

Carry a gun.

> Doesn't earn interest.

It can.

> The gold standard. :-)

Though fair a meme nonetheless, with cryptocurrency
a challenger approaching from a distance.


> Dollar, Euro, Pound Sterling (well regarded fiat currencies):

> Can be used with electronic payment systems.

Not before converting that paper / metal / poly physical into
something entirely different... digits in a database.

> Likely to be accepted anywhere.
> Easy to convert to other currencies

Not really, it's a pain to convert back, assuming you even
knew how to authenticate and wanted the foreign physical
in the first place..

> If you become a refugee, notes are transportable and accounts can be accessed
> if not frozen. (Pick a good jurisdiction for that account.)

They don't let you bring in "good" fiats, they keep it for themselves.
You're not funding that account electronically through the tight regime
you have to refugee from. Nor are you transporting their junk it past
all their checkpoint thieves on the way out, nor is it useful on the
other side.

> gunpoint, accounts can be protected from that attack.

Thug points to your / bankers dome. Govt thugs do same,
civil forfeiture, etc.

> Relatively stable in value over the long term

Nice smooth steady loss and redistribution, lovely.
Case Shiller Index... 2007 deja vu and pop before long.

> Accounts can earn interest.

But don't, not enough to even beat inflation these days,
a terrible SOV and investment.

> What world commerce runs on.

Can run on cryptocurrencies.



> Bitcoin:

> Not accepted everywhere.

Can be.

> the transaction is recorded in the blockchain, leaving a record.

Which if using cryptographically private ZKP blockchain like Zcash (ZEC),
is currently thought to be entirely private thus off the record.

> Can be converted to fiat currencies for
> wide acceptance everywhere

In the future, Neo, you won't have to.

> If you become a refugee, transport is limited by the electronic devices you can
> take with you.

False.
Memorize your brainwallet passphrase.
Encode keys on or in your body, clothing, luggage, books.
Ship ahead, or shard among people, or stash online.
Limitless secure options.

> Wildly changing value over the recent short term

FUD from anti's who don't understand introduction of new things,
decentralized cryptocurrencies into free markets, all covered before.
And Impressive increasing value over any long term window beyond
a year.

> and no long-term track record.

Nine years and counting, impressive for something that's pissing off and
disrupting fiat govt / banks worldwide. Hardly Pokemon or Linden Dollars.

> Can't earn interest

Value on "deposit" is value invested. Investments can earn.
Unless you invest them in shitty things like Lehman Brothers.
While cryptocurrency rising in adoption phase, it eats all others,
so no sane person can or will pay returns denominated in it,
until there are entirely cryptocurrency based businesses,
investment vehicles and cycles, or if its rate of rise falls below
other vehicles. Better to just buy / sell / short it directly.

> Not widely used in commerce.

Nothing stopping that but you.


> Eggs:

> (from the Economist Buttonwood column 7/21/2018 on hyperinflation in
> Venezuela): Not usable for electronic payment. Generally accepted for
> payment in Venezuela. Can be sold as a commodity in most locations and
> converted to other currencies. Not normally tracked by governments. Hard
> boiling recommended should you become a refugee to improve transportability.
> Destroyed by fire, but small fires may help them make a good meal.
> Relatively stable value over the long term, but individual eggs spoil in a
> matter of weeks to months. Can't earn interest. Used in commerce in limited
> locations suffering hyperinflation. Can directly provide human nourishment.

Can earn interest... give recently fertilized eggs to someone to hatch
under contract, you make eggs in return.

I'd peg / tether your price in cryptocurrency for a dozen eggs to each of every
one of today's hundreds of cryptocurrencies, at today's exchange rate,
provided you buy all the eggs you eat each month, from me, at the
aforementioned static crypto/egg peg, using the cryptocurrency of my choice
at each purchase, for the rest of your life. You'll always pay the same amount
of whichever crypto for your eggs, zero volatility, guaranteed. I
reserve the right to
add any new cryptocurrency at any time pegging it for you at that time, and to
terminate contract at any time by delivering a dozen hens a laying to you.

Feel free to hedge your backend with Tether (USDT)...
https://tether.to/


"Every day that goes by and [Cryptocurrency] hasn't collapsed due to legal
or technical problems, that brings new information to the market. It increases
the chance of [Cryptocurrency's] eventual success and justifies a higher price."
-- Hal Finney


Most people are simply closed minded old dog programmed statist
sheeple incapable of free thought outside their box (TV box too).
That's why they can't offer any debate sustainable reason why
decentralized cryptocurrencies *cannot* be used as money.
And why the cryptocurrency crowd, having made that leap, offers
numerous reasons, designs, updates, and ways in which they *can*.

For that matter, seems it'd be a lot more fun crypto coding
completely novel decentralized cryptocurrencies, than off in a
corner trying to digitize some crusty old fiat under orders from a
government / banks with no freedom to change that model :)






On Tue, Jul 24, 2018 at 1:47 AM, Rui Paulo via cryptography
<cryptography at metzdowd.com> wrote:
> On Mon, 2018-07-23 at 08:17 +0000, Peter Gutmann wrote:
>> Dammit, why didn't I think of that?  Just as the bottom is falling
>> out of
>> ICOs, someone comes up with a new way to extract money out of the
>> gullible.
>>
>>   https://www.cryptokitties.co/
>>
>> tl;dr:
>>
>> 1. Use actual real money to buy Ethereum.
>> 2. Use Ethereum to buy a cryptokitty.
>> 3. ??
>> 4. ??
>> 5. No, not profit, just more ??
>>
>
> http://cryptopuppies.org/

Funny how this list will approve, 1up, and talk about the above [1],
yet censor actual discussion of more serious areas of cryptocurrency,
(note such with BTC being early on this list), which are in fact material
relavant to the "technical, social, political, security, privacy, legal,
and multinational aspects of cryptosystems' of its charter.

[1] which are btw old way news now having been out for ten months,
for which people are still rightfully free to evaluate investing in, using
them as currency, or collect / trade /  dispose on whim as deemed fit.

bcc cypherpunks, to witness esteemed lolcat and cute puppy
posters approved into the censorship / irony / fud log...  and where
you're actually free to cover relavant 'crypto' currency material,
and even trade cryptokitties :)