"All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years..."

John Newman jnn at synfin.org
Wed May 17 12:42:09 PDT 2017

On Wed, May 17, 2017 at 12:15:17PM -0700, Steven Schear wrote:
> Alternatively, bio-engineering will make practical the efficient creation
> of liquid fuels from sunlight, water and CO2. No carbon footprint. No
> massive upgrades to utility grids, recharge vs. refueling time tradeoffs or
> distribution changes.

That would be cool!  Either way, I think 8 years might be a little
"optimistic", but it does seem we are in for some massive changes, at
the very least with self-driving vehicles, not even taking EV into

> Warrant Canary creator
> On May 17, 2017 11:25 AM, "John Newman" <jnn at synfin.org> wrote:
> > Kinda off-topic, but interesting.
> >
> > https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/17/05/16/1942252/all-
> > fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-says-stanford-study
> >
> > http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/
> > fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-in-twin-
> > death-spiral-for-big-oil-and-big-autos-says-study-that-
> > shocking-the-industry
> >
> > Stanford University economist Tony Seba forecasts in his new report that
> > petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will no longer be sold anywhere
> > in the world within the next eight years. As a result, the
> > transportation market will transition and switch entirely to
> > electrification, "leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of
> > the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century," reports
> > Financial Post. From the report:
> > Seba's premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will
> > switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times
> > cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of
> > fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles. Only nostalgics will
> > cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles
> > on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or
> > anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal
> > combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024. Cities will ban human
> > drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel.
> > This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a "mass
> > stranding of existing vehicles." The value of second-hard cars will
> > plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle. It is a
> > twin "death spiral" for big oil and big autos, with ugly implications
> > for some big companies on the London Stock Exchange unless they adapt in
> > time. The long-term price of crude will fall to $25 a barrel. Most forms
> > of shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will
> > be stranded. Scotland will forfeit any North Sea bonanza. Russia, Saudi
> > Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela will be in trouble.
> >
> > --
> > John
> >

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