"All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years..."

Steven Schear schear.steve at gmail.com
Wed May 17 14:35:53 PDT 2017


Quite likely self-driving cars will be a red herring to massively chip away
at personal liberties.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-01/it-wont-be-jetsons

On Wed, May 17, 2017 at 2:09 PM, oshwm <oshwm at openmailbox.org> wrote:

> On 17 May 2017 21:50:36 BST, juan <juan.g71 at gmail.com> wrote:
> >On Wed, 17 May 2017 14:25:10 -0400
> >John Newman <jnn at synfin.org> wrote:
> >
> >
> >>
> >> Stanford University economist
> >
> >       so an 'economist' (LMAO) from the 'intellectual' core of
> >       american 'progressive' fascism ('ivy league' universities) is
> >       making a completely laughable prediction about...engineering?
> >
> >       wow, stanford 'economists' seem almost as omniscient as jesus =)
> >
> >       Oh, and like a good progressive american he's fully convinced
> >       that the whole world will be subjected to his 'utopia'
> >
> >       "petrol cars....no longer  sold anywhere in the world"
> >
> >       and
> >
> >       "Cities will ban human drivers"
> >
> >       Yeah! Land of the free and home of the brave!
> >
> >
> >       So what is this apart from crass propaganda? Sorry John, don't
> >       take it personally.
> >
> >
> >
> >> Tony Seba forecasts in his new report
> >> that petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will no longer be sold
> >> anywhere in the world within the next eight years. As a result, the
> >> transportation market will transition and switch entirely to
> >> electrification, "leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise
> >> of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century," reports
> >> Financial Post. From the report:
> >> Seba's premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will
> >> switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten
> >> times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero
> >> marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.
> >> Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The
> >> rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find
> >> a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts
> >> that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear
> >> by 2024. Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how
> >> dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs,
> >> and then beyond. There will be a "mass stranding of existing
> >> vehicles." The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have
> >> to pay to dispose of your old vehicle. It is a twin "death spiral"
> >> for big oil and big autos, with ugly implications for some big
> >> companies on the London Stock Exchange unless they adapt in time. The
> >> long-term price of crude will fall to $25 a barrel. Most forms of
> >> shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will
> >> be stranded. Scotland will forfeit any North Sea bonanza. Russia,
> >> Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela will be in trouble.
> >>
>
> Personally I could believe that, in the UK at least, given 5-10 years that
> EVs will be sold in significant numbers and occupying the place in car
> sales that diesels currently occupy with total sales dominance over all car
> sales in about 20 years.
> Self-Drivers will grow to share a significant amount of market share in
> that 20 year timescale.
>
> Of course, I have no qualifications to back up my guesswork so we'll have
> to wait 20 years to see if my guesswork beats Ivy League economists
> guesswork lol.
>
> cheers,
> oshwm.
>
>
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