"All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years..."

[Steven Schear]

Alternatively, bio-engineering will make practical the efficient creation
of liquid fuels from sunlight, water and CO2. No carbon footprint. No
massive upgrades to utility grids, recharge vs. refueling time tradeoffs or
distribution changes.

Warrant Canary creator

On May 17, 2017 11:25 AM, "John Newman" <jnn at synfin.org> wrote:

> Kinda off-topic, but interesting.
>
> https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/17/05/16/1942252/all-
> fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-says-stanford-study
>
> http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/
> fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-in-twin-
> death-spiral-for-big-oil-and-big-autos-says-study-that-
> shocking-the-industry
>
> Stanford University economist Tony Seba forecasts in his new report that
> petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will no longer be sold anywhere
> in the world within the next eight years. As a result, the
> transportation market will transition and switch entirely to
> electrification, "leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of
> the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century," reports
> Financial Post. From the report:
> Seba's premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will
> switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times
> cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of
> fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles. Only nostalgics will
> cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles
> on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or
> anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal
> combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024. Cities will ban human
> drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel.
> This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a "mass
> stranding of existing vehicles." The value of second-hard cars will
> plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle. It is a
> twin "death spiral" for big oil and big autos, with ugly implications
> for some big companies on the London Stock Exchange unless they adapt in
> time. The long-term price of crude will fall to $25 a barrel. Most forms
> of shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will
> be stranded. Scotland will forfeit any North Sea bonanza. Russia, Saudi
> Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela will be in trouble.
>
> --
> John
>
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